US President Donald Trump's plan for ending the war in Ukraine would cede land to Russia and limit the size of Kyiv's military, according to a draft obtained Thursday by The Associated Press.
The proposal, originating from negotiations between Washington and Moscow, appeared decidedly favorable to Russia, which started the war nearly four years ago by invading its neighbor. If past is prologue, it would seem untenable for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has opposed Trump's previous calls for territorial concessions.
A side agreement aims to satisfy Ukrainian security concerns by saying a future “significant, deliberate and sustained armed attack” by Russia would be viewed as “threatening the peace and security of the transatlantic community.”
The agreement, which was detailed by a senior US official who was not authorized to publicly discuss the matter, does not obligate the United States or European allies to intervene on Ukraine's behalf, although it says they would “determine the measures necessary to restore security.”
Trump's push to end the war could drive a wedge between himself and European leaders, who are likely to oppose any agreement that could be seen as rewarding Russian President Vladimir Putin for his aggression, leaving him emboldened rather than defeated.
For example, the proposal would not only bar Ukraine from joining NATO but would also prevent the alliance's future expansion. Such a step would be a significant victory for Moscow, which views NATO as a threat.
Putin would also gain ground he has been unable to win on the battlefield. Under the draft, Moscow would hold all the eastern Donbas region, even though approximately 14% still remains in Ukrainian hands. Ukraine's military, currently at roughly 880,000 troops, would be reduced to 600,000.
The proposal opens the door to lifting sanctions on Russia and returning it to what was formerly known as the Group of Eight, which includes many of the world’s biggest economies. Russia was suspended from the annual gathering in 2014 following its annexation of Crimea, a strategically important peninsula on the northern coast of the Black Sea that is internationally recognized as part of Ukraine.
Under the proposal, Russia would commit to making no future attacks, something the White House views as a concession. In addition, $100 billion in frozen Russian assets would be dedicated to rebuilding Ukraine.
However, handing over territory to Russia would be deeply unpopular in Ukraine. It also would be illegal under Ukraine’s constitution. Zelenskyy has repeatedly ruled out such a possibility.
Russia would also be allowed to keep half of the power generated by Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, Zaporizhzhia, which it captured from Ukraine early during the war.
The draft calls for a “Peace Council” that Trump will oversee. The council is an idea that Trump snatched from his lengthy peace plan aimed at bringing about a permanent end to war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
If either Ukraine or Russia violated the truce once enacted, it would face sanctions.
