Iran Tells World to Get Ready for Oil at $200 a Barrel as It Fires on Merchant Ships

Commercial vessels are pictured offshore in Dubai on March 11, 2026. (AFP)
Commercial vessels are pictured offshore in Dubai on March 11, 2026. (AFP)
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Iran Tells World to Get Ready for Oil at $200 a Barrel as It Fires on Merchant Ships

Commercial vessels are pictured offshore in Dubai on March 11, 2026. (AFP)
Commercial vessels are pictured offshore in Dubai on March 11, 2026. (AFP)

Iran said the world should be ready for oil at $200 a barrel as its forces hit merchant ships on Wednesday and the International Energy Agency recommended a massive release of strategic reserves to dampen one of the worst oil shocks since the 1970s.

The war unleashed with joint US and Israeli air strikes nearly two weeks ago has so far killed around 2,000 people, mostly Iranians and Lebanese, as it has spread into Lebanon and thrown global energy markets and transport into chaos.

Despite what the Pentagon has described as the most intense airstrikes since the start of the war, Iran also fired at Israel and targets across the Middle East on Wednesday, demonstrating it can still fight back.

On Wednesday, three vessels were reported to have been hit in Gulf waters as Iran's Revolutionary Guards said their forces had fired on ships in the Gulf that had disobeyed their orders.

US President Donald Trump suggested the campaign would not last much longer, telling Axios news website there was "practically nothing left" to target in Iran.

"Any time I want it to end, it will end," he said in a telephone interview.

Oil prices, which shot up earlier in the week to nearly $120 a barrel before settling back to around $90, rose more than 4% on Wednesday amid renewed fears about supply disruption, while Wall Street's main share indexes fell in morning trade.

Previously, stock markets had rebounded as investors bet on Trump ‌finding a quick exit.

But ‌other signs pointed to a continuation of fighting which has seen ports and cities in the Gulf states as ‌well as ⁠targets in Israel hit ⁠by drone and missile barrages from Iran, adding urgency to calls from Türkiye and Europe to end the fighting.

An Israeli military official said the military still had an extensive list of targets to hit in Iran, including ballistic missile and nuclear-related sites.

'LEGITIMATE TARGETS"

So far there has been no sign that ships can safely sail through the Strait of Hormuz, the now-blockaded channel along the Iranian coast that serves as a conduit for around a fifth of the world's oil.

Trump said on Wednesday that ships "should" transit through the Strait but sources said Iran had deployed about a dozen mines in the channel, further complicating the blockade.

The US military told Iranians to stay clear of ports with Iranian navy facilities, drawing a warning from Iran's military that if the ports were threatened, economic and trade centers in the region would be "legitimate targets".

With prices at the pumps already surging in some countries and Trump's Republican Party trailing badly in the polls ahead of midterm elections, oil ⁠prices have become an increasingly urgent element in the calculations behind the war.

The International Energy Agency, made up of major oil consuming ‌nations, recommended releasing 400 million barrels from global strategic reserves to stabilize prices, the biggest such intervention in history, which ‌was swiftly endorsed by Washington.

But the rate at which countries can release strategic reserves will vary and the amount released would account for just a fraction of the supply through the Hormuz Strait.

Iranian ‌officials made clear on Wednesday they intended to impose a prolonged economic shock as the war continues.

"Get ready for oil to be $200 a barrel, because the oil price ‌depends on regional security, which you have destabilized," Ebrahim Zolfaqari, spokesperson for Iran's military command, said in comments addressed to Washington.

After offices of a bank in Tehran were hit overnight, Zolfaqari said Iran would respond with attacks on banks that do business with the US or Israel. People across the Middle East should stay 1,000 meters from banks, he added.

At sea, a Thai-flagged bulk carrier was set ablaze, forcing the evacuation of crew, with three people reported missing and believed trapped in the engine room.

Two other ships, a Japanese-flagged container ship and a Marshall Islands-flagged bulk carrier, were also reported to have sustained ‌damage from projectiles, bringing the number of merchant ships that have been hit since the war began to 14.

IRANIAN OFFICIAL SAYS MOJTABA KHAMENEI LIGHTLY WOUNDED

In Iran, huge crowds took to the streets for funerals for top commanders killed in airstrikes. They ⁠carried caskets and brandished flags and portraits of ⁠slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his son and successor, Mojtaba.

An Iranian official told Reuters that Mojtaba Khamenei had been lightly wounded early in the war, when airstrikes killed his father, mother, wife and a son. He has not appeared in public or issued any direct message since the war began.

The Iranian military said on Tuesday it had launched missiles at targets including a US base in northern Iraq and at targets in central Israel. Explosions rang out in Bahrain, while in Dubai four people were wounded by two drones that crashed near the airport.

In Tehran, residents said they were growing accustomed to nightly airstrikes that have sent hundreds of thousands of people fleeing to the countryside and contaminated the city with black rain from oil smoke.

"There were bombings last night but I did not get scared like before. Life goes on," Farshid, 52, told Reuters by phone.

'NO TIME LIMIT', SAYS ISRAEL

Despite calls from Trump for Iranians to rise up, US and Israeli hopes that Iran's system of clerical rule would be overthrown by popular protest have not been borne out.

Iran's police chief, Ahmadreza Radan, said on Wednesday anyone taking to the streets would be treated "as an enemy, not a protester. All our security forces have their fingers on the trigger".

A senior Israeli official told Reuters Israeli leaders now privately accepted that Iran's ruling system could survive the war. Two other Israeli officials said there was no sign Washington was close to ending the campaign.

US and Israeli officials say their aim is to end Iran's ability to project force beyond its borders and destroy its nuclear program.

Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Wednesday the operation "will continue without any time limit, as long as required, until we achieve all objectives and win the campaign".



Mounting Pressure on Iran Revives the Specter of the 2000 Aden Attack

US Navy aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush
US Navy aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush
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Mounting Pressure on Iran Revives the Specter of the 2000 Aden Attack

US Navy aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush
US Navy aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush

US author Anne-Marie Slaughter argues in The Chessboard and the Web: Strategies of Connection in a Networked World that the world no longer operates or interacts according to the logic of a traditional chessboard.

The old model was linear and two-dimensional, centered on a single objective: toppling the king by controlling territory.

That logic no longer defines 21st-century conflict. Today’s world operates across overlapping, interlocking layers that interact and often collide simultaneously, within a continuously evolving network that includes military, economic, political, alliance, and informational dimensions.

As this network evolves, it generates both solutions and complications so rapidly that they outpace the ability of leadership to make timely decisions. Improvisation comes to dominate decision-making, errors multiply and accumulate, feeding back into the system and further deepening its complexity.

On the escalation ladder

Escalation depends on strategic flexibility and the tools available. In practical terms, the greater the flexibility, the greater the ability of actors to climb the escalation ladder, from low-intensity conflict to higher levels, until reaching a peak where one side yields, either on the battlefield or at the negotiating table.

But this climb is inherently a trap. Each step builds on the last. As these steps accumulate over time, the cost compounds, making it increasingly difficult to step back without incurring significant losses.

The US blockade

This is not the first time the US Navy has imposed a maritime blockade. The most notable case was Cuba in the 1960s during the Cuban Missile Crisis, labeled a “quarantine,” a term deliberately used to indicate a measure short of full wartime blockade. Cuba’s geography made it relatively easy to encircle.

A similar approach was later applied to Venezuela. Today, the focus has shifted to Iranian ports, both inside and outside the Gulf.

Direct comparisons are limited by differing contexts. Still, one constant remains: the US Navy possesses the capability to enforce such blockades, particularly given its dominance over global seas and oceans.

In Cuba, Soviet missiles targeted major US cities and the world was divided between two superpowers. In Venezuela, President Donald Trump invoked the Monroe Doctrine and implemented a national security strategy prioritizing the Western Hemisphere and America’s immediate sphere.

The Strait of Hormuz, however, is fundamentally different. Other waterways can be bypassed; Hormuz cannot. It is a closed corridor through which oil, gas, petrochemicals, helium, fertilizers, and other critical goods must pass. There is no alternative route; all shipments must transit Hormuz in both directions.

Iran’s strategy

Since the Shah’s era, aligned with the Nixon Doctrine, Tehran has pursued control over Gulf waters and influence over the Strait of Hormuz. The continued occupation of the UAE islands of Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musa since the 1970s underscores this long-standing strategic objective.

More than 30 islands are scattered across the Gulf’s deep waters, precisely along the routes used by oil tankers that require significant depth to pass safely. If linked together as part of a military-security network, they reveal long-term planning for scenarios such as the current one.

Iran’s naval doctrine relies on both the Revolutionary Guards and the regular navy, employing small submarines, torpedoes, fast attack boats, naval mines, drones, and ballistic missiles.

At its core lies an anti-access strategy designed to deny adversaries freedom of movement in Gulf waters.

Centers of gravity

Qeshm Island is critical for controlling access to the Strait of Hormuz. Kharg Island follows, serving as the hub for more than 80 percent of Iran’s oil exports, supplied by the oil fields of Khuzestan.

Beyond the islands, the South Pars gas field in Bushehr province is central to Iran’s energy system, providing more than 70 percent of the country’s domestic electricity needs.

These key sites have already been targeted during the conflict by US or Israeli airpower. To expand the scope of escalation and increase pressure, Trump deployed additional forces, including Marine units and elements of the 82nd Airborne Division, aimed at broadening military options and forcing Iran to soften its negotiating position. After talks in Pakistan failed, he moved to announce the blockade.

The current US approach

By declaring the blockade, Trump effectively altered the existing rules of engagement in the Gulf, imposing an asymmetric approach that avoids Iran’s strengths and prevents it from dictating the battlefield dynamics.

Instead, the US leverages distance, operating from the Arabian Sea, along with its technological superiority and strategic flexibility.

This effectively turns Iran’s own strategy against it. What once constrained US freedom of movement inside the Gulf is now being used to impose external pressure on Iran from the Arabian Sea.

If successful, the strategy could deprive Iran, according to The Wall Street Journal, of roughly $435 million per day, or $13 billion per month, while avoiding the costs of direct military action such as seizing islands like Kharg.

It would also confine Iran’s asymmetric capabilities within the Gulf and strip it of its most effective operational tools.

The central question now is how Iran will respond. How will it adapt its strategy in the face of this pressure? Will escalation continue? And could that escalation take the form of a maritime attack similar to the 2000 strike on the US destroyer USS Cole near Aden?


Iran Can Go up to Two Months without Oil Exports Before Cutting Output, Analysts Say

A man rides past a large billboard referring to the Strait of Hormuz in Tehran's Vanak Square on April 15, 2026. (AFP)
A man rides past a large billboard referring to the Strait of Hormuz in Tehran's Vanak Square on April 15, 2026. (AFP)
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Iran Can Go up to Two Months without Oil Exports Before Cutting Output, Analysts Say

A man rides past a large billboard referring to the Strait of Hormuz in Tehran's Vanak Square on April 15, 2026. (AFP)
A man rides past a large billboard referring to the Strait of Hormuz in Tehran's Vanak Square on April 15, 2026. (AFP)

Iran can withstand a complete halt in oil exports of up to two months before being forced to curb production, analysts said, after the US began blocking shipping in and out of the country's ports on April 13.

The blockade could prevent roughly 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian crude from reaching its main buyer China.

Any Iranian production shutdowns would add to more than 12 million bpd of supply already disrupted by the regional war, tightening markets further and ‌lifting oil ‌prices.

With its exports blocked, Iran faces having to ‌divert ⁠crude into onshore storage ⁠tanks. Once those tanks are filled, the OPEC member would be required to curb upstream output.

Consultancy FGE NextantECA estimates Iran has about 90 million barrels of available onshore crude storage capacity, out of total capacity of roughly 122 million barrels.

"Iran can sustain current production of around 3.5 million bpd for roughly two months without exports, extendable to around three months with a modest ⁠500,000 bpd production cut," FGE NextantECA said in a ‌note.

Iranian domestic refineries process about 2 million ‌bpd of oil, they added.

The relevant Iranian authorities were not immediately available for comment.

Energy ‌Aspects assumes significantly lower available onshore storage of about 30 million barrels, ‌based on data from Kayrros.

Under that scenario, Iran could maintain current export levels for about 16 days before storage capacity runs out, based on export levels of 1.8 million bpd.

"The blockade may not have a significant impact on Iranian production in ‌April, but if it continues into May then output would need to be reduced substantially," said Richard ⁠Bronze, co-founder of Energy ⁠Aspects.

He said the consultancy assumes Iran cannot utilize its full nameplate storage capacity, adding that historic data show stocks peaked at 92 million barrels in May 2020, which likely marks a realistic ceiling.

Bronze also said Iran will likely deploy available oil tankers in ports as floating storage, delaying production cuts.

The US military said more vessels were being turned back under the blockade, including the Chinese-owned tanker Rich Starry, which is under US sanctions and which was seen heading back through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday.

Eight Iran-linked oil tankers have been intercepted since the blockade began on Monday, the Wall Street Journal reported. A US destroyer stopped two tankers attempting to leave Iran's Chabahar port on the Gulf of Oman on Tuesday, a US official said.


World Bank Announces Water Security Plan for One Billion People

 A girl carries jerrycans on a wheelbarrow after collecting water from a well at a mosque in Deh Mazang, Kabul, Afghanistan, Thursday, April 2, 2026. (AP)
A girl carries jerrycans on a wheelbarrow after collecting water from a well at a mosque in Deh Mazang, Kabul, Afghanistan, Thursday, April 2, 2026. (AP)
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World Bank Announces Water Security Plan for One Billion People

 A girl carries jerrycans on a wheelbarrow after collecting water from a well at a mosque in Deh Mazang, Kabul, Afghanistan, Thursday, April 2, 2026. (AP)
A girl carries jerrycans on a wheelbarrow after collecting water from a well at a mosque in Deh Mazang, Kabul, Afghanistan, Thursday, April 2, 2026. (AP)

The World Bank announced a plan Wednesday that aims to improve secure water access for a billion people within the next four years.

The new "Water Forward" program aims to "expand reliable water services and strengthen systems against droughts and floods."

The Bank said its own funds and technical advice would help improve water supplies to some 400 million people by 2030, with the balance coming from partners.

Regional development banks, OPEC's development fund, and the BRICS-aligned New Development Bank are among institutions that will participate, the World Bank said.

The global lender did not specify how much capital it would commit to the initiative.

Some four billion people -- half the world's population -- face water scarcity, due in part to "unclear policies, weak regulations, and financially unsustainable utilities that have slowed progress and deterred investment," the Bank said.

The global lender said that 14 countries had already voluntarily committed to reform and strengthen their water sectors under the new program.

The focus on governance issues -- not simply physical water infrastructure -- is promising, David Michel, senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said.

"In many countries, the water sector fails to fully deploy the funds already allocated to it."

However, the Bank's initiative "faces a long and difficult road ahead," he warned.

The issue of access to safe drinking water, in particular, has been highlighted during the war in the Middle East, with desalination plants in Iran and across the region damaged in bombardments.

Beyond conflicts and immediate drinking water needs, the World Bank said that better water security was needed to grow the global economy.

"Strong water systems are foundational to healthy economies that can attract private investment and create jobs," the Bank said.