The confrontation between Iran on one side and the United States and Israel on the other has entered a phase of mutual attrition, shifting from temporary military escalation to a sustained pattern of operations, deterrence and endurance.
According to a report released Wednesday by the Gulf Research Center, based in Jeddah, the United States is building a long-term campaign aimed at degrading Iran’s missile capabilities and restoring confidence in maritime shipping routes.
Iran, meanwhile, is relying on its geography, security infrastructure and the strategic leverage of the Strait of Hormuz to prevent its adversaries from turning operational superiority into lasting strategic stability.
Rear Admiral Abdullah Al-Zaidi, senior adviser for security and defense studies at the center and author of the report, said the crisis has entered a stage of extended confrontation.
In this phase, the US effort has shifted from merely containing the Iranian threat to reducing Tehran’s capacity to regenerate and sustain its military capabilities by targeting missiles, drones and the military-industrial infrastructure that supports them.
A War of Attrition
The report said one of the most notable developments is the expansion of the US campaign from exhausting Iranian operational capabilities to striking the broader military-industrial base.
The chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff has indicated that the campaign now focuses on destroying Iran’s missile and drone capabilities and degrading its naval forces in order to safeguard freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
The report also noted that after national energy authorities in Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain declared force majeure, the conflict could no longer be viewed as purely military. Its repercussions have now extended into the global energy sector.
Strait of Hormuz Pressure
Developments in the Strait of Hormuz, the report argued, show that Iran remains capable of generating significant strategic impact without formally closing the waterway. By reducing shipping traffic, raising operational risks and undermining confidence in maritime routes, Tehran can disrupt the flow of commerce without declaring a blockade.
The report added that from a Gulf perspective, the crisis is no longer simply an external escalation affecting global markets, but rather a direct challenge to national and energy securities and freedom of navigation.
Military Campaign Expands
Militarily, the report stated that the US campaign has shifted from reducing the tempo of Iranian attacks to systematically targeting the sources of Iranian military power. This includes destroying missile stockpiles and launch platforms, weakening Iran’s naval capabilities and expanding strikes to facilities involved in drone production.
Iran’s Strategic Depth
According to the report, Iran’s geography provides Tehran with natural strategic depth and a layered defensive capability. The country relies on rugged terrain, underground fortifications, tunnel networks and buried facilities to protect critical military assets.
Israeli estimates cited in the report suggest that more than 60 percent of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers have been disabled, with operational launch platforms declining from roughly 400 to about 150.
Nevertheless, current indicators suggest Tehran is pursuing a strategy of prolonged attrition based on absorbing strikes while extending the duration of the confrontation.
Disruption Without Closure
More than 20 million barrels of oil per day pass through the Strait of Hormuz, along with roughly one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas trade. Yet the report stressed that disrupting shipping does not require a full closure of the waterway.
Recent developments have shown that traffic can be significantly impeded without a formal blockade, it says.
The report also warned of rising risks in the strait, including the possibility that naval mines could be deployed as a direct tool of pressure.
Restoring Shipping Confidence
The contest over Hormuz is no longer solely military but also economic. The report said the central challenge now lies in persuading shipping companies and insurers to resume normal operations in the corridor.
Key Risks
Among the main risks identified are the possibility that the Strait of Hormuz crisis could evolve from a price shock into a supply crisis.
Other risks include potential direct confrontations during naval escort operations, the normalization of shipping disruption without a declared blockade, and the introduction of naval mines into the strategic equation.
The report also highlighted the continued external supply of Iranian missile capabilities, along with expanding international intelligence activity and growing cyber threats.
Outlook
The Gulf Research Center report concluded that the most likely short-term scenario is the continued disruption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz without a full closure, a strategy that raises operational costs while avoiding the political consequences of an openly declared blockade.
It also expected Iran’s missile-based attrition strategy to continue without a rapid collapse, given the country’s geographic advantages and defensive infrastructure, which could prolong the confrontation.
