Iran Threatens to Retaliate against Gulf Energy and Water after Trump Ultimatum

epa12835579 Liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities in Ras Laffan Industrial City, in Ras Laffan, Qatar, 25 February 2026 (issued 20 March 2026). Qatar has said Iranian missile attacks on the Ras Laffan Industrial City have caused significant damage to the natural gas industrial complex, located approximately 80 km north-east of Doha. It is operated by Qatar Energy and employs around 115,000 people according to the company.  EPA/HANNIBAL HANSCHKE
epa12835579 Liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities in Ras Laffan Industrial City, in Ras Laffan, Qatar, 25 February 2026 (issued 20 March 2026). Qatar has said Iranian missile attacks on the Ras Laffan Industrial City have caused significant damage to the natural gas industrial complex, located approximately 80 km north-east of Doha. It is operated by Qatar Energy and employs around 115,000 people according to the company. EPA/HANNIBAL HANSCHKE
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Iran Threatens to Retaliate against Gulf Energy and Water after Trump Ultimatum

epa12835579 Liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities in Ras Laffan Industrial City, in Ras Laffan, Qatar, 25 February 2026 (issued 20 March 2026). Qatar has said Iranian missile attacks on the Ras Laffan Industrial City have caused significant damage to the natural gas industrial complex, located approximately 80 km north-east of Doha. It is operated by Qatar Energy and employs around 115,000 people according to the company.  EPA/HANNIBAL HANSCHKE
epa12835579 Liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities in Ras Laffan Industrial City, in Ras Laffan, Qatar, 25 February 2026 (issued 20 March 2026). Qatar has said Iranian missile attacks on the Ras Laffan Industrial City have caused significant damage to the natural gas industrial complex, located approximately 80 km north-east of Doha. It is operated by Qatar Energy and employs around 115,000 people according to the company. EPA/HANNIBAL HANSCHKE

Iran said on Sunday it would strike the energy and water systems of its Gulf neighbors in retaliation if US President Donald Trump follows through with a threat to hit Iran's electricity grid in 48 hours, escalating the three-week-old war.

The prospect of tit-for-tat strikes on civilian infrastructure could deepen the regional crisis and rattle global markets when they reopen on Monday morning, Reuters reported.

Air raid sirens sounded across Israel from the early hours of Sunday, warning of incoming missiles from Iran, after scores of people were hurt overnight in two separate attacks in the southern Israeli towns of Arad and Dimona.

The Israeli military said hours later that it was striking Tehran in response.

Trump threatened overnight to "obliterate" Iran's power plants if Tehran did not fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, barely a day after he talked about "winding down" the war. He made the new threat as US Marines and heavy landing craft are heading to the region.

Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf wrote on X that critical infrastructure and energy facilities in the Middle East could be "irreversibly destroyed" should Iranian power plants be attacked.

Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guards said it would also mean the shipping lane where a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas normally transits along Iran's southern coast would remain shut.

"The Strait of Hormuz will be completely closed and will not be opened until our destroyed power plants are rebuilt," the Guards said in a statement.

"President Trump's threat has now placed a 48-hour ticking time bomb of elevated uncertainty over markets," said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore, who expects stock markets to fall when they reopen on Monday.

Oil prices jumped on Friday, ending the day at their highest in nearly four years.

Markets already under severe strain from blockaded shipping were further rattled last week when Israel attacked a major gas field in Iran, and Tehran responded with strikes on neighbors Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait, raising the prospect of damage hindering energy output even if tankers resume sailing.

Iranian attacks have effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, causing the worst oil crisis since the 1970s. Its near-closure sent European gas prices surging as much as 35% last week.

"If Iran doesn't FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!" Trump posted on social media around 7:45 p.m. EDT (2345 GMT) on Saturday.

Iranian media quoted the country's representative to the International Maritime Organisation as saying the strait remains open to all shipping except vessels linked to "Iran's enemies".

Ali Mousavi said passage through the waterway was possible by coordinating security and safety arrangements with Tehran.

Ship-tracking data shows some vessels, such as Indian-flagged ships and a Pakistani oil tanker, have negotiated safe passage through the strait. But the vast majority of ships have remained holed up inside.

Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya military command headquarters said on Sunday if the US hit Iran's fuel and energy infrastructure, Iran would attack all US energy, information technology and desalination infrastructure in the region.

Striking major Iranian power plants could trigger blackouts, crippling everything from pumps and refineries to export terminals and military command centres.



Russia Expresses Concern Over the Spread of Iran War to the Caspian

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov attends a joint press conference with Kenyan Foreign Minister Musalia Mudavadii following their talks in Moscow, Russia, 16 March 2026. (EPA/Tatyana Makeyeva / Pool)
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov attends a joint press conference with Kenyan Foreign Minister Musalia Mudavadii following their talks in Moscow, Russia, 16 March 2026. (EPA/Tatyana Makeyeva / Pool)
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Russia Expresses Concern Over the Spread of Iran War to the Caspian

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov attends a joint press conference with Kenyan Foreign Minister Musalia Mudavadii following their talks in Moscow, Russia, 16 March 2026. (EPA/Tatyana Makeyeva / Pool)
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov attends a joint press conference with Kenyan Foreign Minister Musalia Mudavadii following their talks in Moscow, Russia, 16 March 2026. (EPA/Tatyana Makeyeva / Pool)

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke to Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi on Monday and expressed concern ‌over ‌the spread ‌of ⁠the Iran war to the ⁠Caspian Sea.

"Mutual concern was expressed about the dangerous ⁠spread of the ‌conflict ‌provoked by ‌Washington and ‌Tel Aviv to the Caspian Sea area," Russia's ‌foreign ministry said.

Lavrov also said that ⁠attacks ⁠on Iran's nuclear infrastructure including Bushehr posed "unacceptable risks to the safety of Russian personnel and are fraught with catastrophic environmental consequences".

Araghchi and Lavrov held their call after US President Donald Trump revealed Washington and Tehran had held "very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities."

Lavrov called for an "immediate cessation of hostilities and a political settlement that takes into account the legitimate interests of all parties involved, above all Iran," the Russian foreign ministry said in a readout of the call, which it said was initiated by Tehran.


Trump Postpones Military Strikes on Iranian Power Plants

Iranian Red Crescent emergency workers use a bulldozer to clear rubble from a residential building that was hit in an earlier US-Israeli strike in Tehran, Iran, Monday, March 23, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
Iranian Red Crescent emergency workers use a bulldozer to clear rubble from a residential building that was hit in an earlier US-Israeli strike in Tehran, Iran, Monday, March 23, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
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Trump Postpones Military Strikes on Iranian Power Plants

Iranian Red Crescent emergency workers use a bulldozer to clear rubble from a residential building that was hit in an earlier US-Israeli strike in Tehran, Iran, Monday, March 23, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
Iranian Red Crescent emergency workers use a bulldozer to clear rubble from a residential building that was hit in an earlier US-Israeli strike in Tehran, Iran, Monday, March 23, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

President Donald Trump said on Monday the US has ⁠had good and ⁠productive conversations with Iran ⁠and he will order the military to postpone any military strikes against ⁠Iranian power ⁠plants and energy infrastructure.

Trump's move followed a threat by Iran to attack Israel's power plants and those supplying ⁠US bases across the region if the US targets Iran's power network.

The United States and Iran "have had, over the last two days, very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East," Trump wrote, in all capitals, early Monday on his Truth Social platform.

"Based on the tenor and tone" of the talks, "witch (sic) will continue throughout the week, I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five day period, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings," he added.


Moscow Bets on Tehran’s Resilience, Western Rift

The Russian President attends events marking “Defender of the Fatherland Day” in Moscow on February 23 (AP)
The Russian President attends events marking “Defender of the Fatherland Day” in Moscow on February 23 (AP)
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Moscow Bets on Tehran’s Resilience, Western Rift

The Russian President attends events marking “Defender of the Fatherland Day” in Moscow on February 23 (AP)
The Russian President attends events marking “Defender of the Fatherland Day” in Moscow on February 23 (AP)

The Kremlin’s expectations appeared markedly pessimistic in the fourth week of the Iran war, as confidence grew that Russia’s ability to influence the conflict was waning and that the repercussions for one of its key partners could be severe.

With limited leverage, the Kremlin’s main options now seem to be avoiding direct involvement while closely monitoring the fallout, particularly signs of widening divisions between Washington and European capitals — and what one veteran Russian diplomat described as “driving the final wedge” into transatlantic relations.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov summed up the mood: “No reasonable person would dare predict how the situation in the Middle East will evolve, but it is clear that things are moving toward the worse.”

From the outset, Russian assessments have focused on two key assumptions: that air strikes alone cannot topple Iran’s political system, regardless of their scale, and that ending the war without a costly ground intervention would be difficult for the attacking parties.

A second assumption is that any cessation of hostilities would resemble the outcome of the brief 12-day war of 2025, with each side claiming success without achieving its ultimate objectives, particularly Israel’s stated goal of dismantling Iran’s ruling system.

Such a scenario would suit Moscow, even if Iran were to emerge weakened but still cohesive under its leadership.

Despite increasingly pessimistic forecasts about a potential geographic expansion of the conflict, Moscow believes Tehran has so far absorbed the initial blow and shifted the confrontation into a war of attrition. Russian officials are also banking on possible internal developments within Washington and Tel Aviv, as well as growing divergences with European allies.

Peskov has repeatedly stressed that military operations against Iran have led to greater cohesion among the Iranian people around their leadership, adding that attempts at regime change tend to produce the opposite effect.

He also condemned ongoing assassination campaigns targeting Iranian leaders, calling the situation “abnormal” and warning of “serious consequences.” In a pointed remark, he added that Iran is “actively defending itself against attacks on its territory.”

These statements underline Russia’s primary bet: that Iran’s internal stability will hold, while divisions deepen among its adversaries.

Putin’s mediation effort

President Vladimir Putin initially sought to use the crisis to bolster Russia’s diplomatic standing by proposing rapid mediation to halt the war.

During the first week, he held a series of calls with regional leaders, criticizing Iranian strikes on Gulf countries while emphasizing Moscow’s ability to send “direct messages” to Tehran.

Russia also revived earlier proposals discussed in Oman concerning Iran’s nuclear capabilities and missile program. Moscow offered to take control of enriched uranium and transfer it to Russian territory, while guaranteeing that Iran’s missile capabilities would not be used against Israel or neighboring states.

The proposal was also raised during Putin’s only call with US President Donald Trump in the second week of the war. However, it failed to gain traction in either Tel Aviv — which insists on a military solution — or Washington, where Trump signaled that Putin should first resolve the Ukraine conflict before seeking a role elsewhere.

Limited support for Iran

Against this backdrop, the Kremlin’s options for meaningful intervention appear extremely limited. Complicating matters are accusations that Moscow has provided valuable intelligence support to Iran.

These claims gained weight when US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff reportedly issued a strong warning to Moscow, and the issue was raised directly during the Trump-Putin call.

Nevertheless, Russian circles argue that Moscow has little choice but to continue offering indirect assistance to Tehran while avoiding provoking Washington.

According to Russian media sources, this support takes two main forms: sharing limited intelligence on Israeli movements — carefully calibrated to avoid harming US interests — and providing indirect backing through private companies specializing in cyber technologies, an area where Russia and China have made significant advances.

European repercussions

Another key aspect of Russia’s strategy is its close monitoring of how the war is affecting Ukraine and European positions, which Moscow still sees as the main obstacle to ending the conflict on its terms.

There is little concealment of Russian satisfaction at Europe’s difficulties amid the war, particularly fears over rising oil and gas prices and the prospect of easing sanctions on Moscow to offset supply shortages.

Kremlin commentary suggests that European priorities are shifting, with energy costs replacing Ukraine at the top of government agendas.

Veteran Russian diplomat Alexander Yakovenko argued that the Middle East crisis, combined with the fallout from Ukraine, is intensifying tensions within the transatlantic alliance.

He pointed to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz rejecting a US request to help secure the Strait of Hormuz as evidence of deepening strains. Trump, he noted, responded by describing NATO as a “paper tiger.”

According to Yakovenko, the coming weeks will be decisive for the Iran conflict and its broader consequences. He added that transatlantic relations are facing a severe crisis, with disagreements over Ukraine fueling European opposition to Trump, a factor that could influence the US midterm elections in November.

More broadly, he warned that a US setback in Iran would weaken Washington’s position vis-à-vis Beijing, noting that China has already used export controls on rare earth minerals to counter US trade pressure.

In this context, Yakovenko sees the emergence of three dominant global powers — the United States, China and Russia — with Europe increasingly sidelined.

Such a shift, he suggested, would echo the post-World War II Yalta-Potsdam order, albeit with China replacing Britain, marking the end of two centuries of Western containment of Russia.