US Intelligence: War Between Israel and Hezbollah Nearing

Israel’s air-defense missiles intercept rockets launched by Hezbollah near the Lebanese border (Reuters)
Israel’s air-defense missiles intercept rockets launched by Hezbollah near the Lebanese border (Reuters)
TT

US Intelligence: War Between Israel and Hezbollah Nearing

Israel’s air-defense missiles intercept rockets launched by Hezbollah near the Lebanese border (Reuters)
Israel’s air-defense missiles intercept rockets launched by Hezbollah near the Lebanese border (Reuters)

US intelligence said a large-scale confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah is likely to break out in the next several weeks if Israel and Hamas fail to reach a ceasefire deal in Gaza, according to an article published by Politico.

US officials are trying to convince both sides to deescalate — a task that would be significantly easier with a ceasefire in place in Gaza.

But that agreement is in tense negotiations and US officials are not confident Israel and Hamas will agree to the deal on the table in the near future, the newspaper said Thursday.

It quoted two senior US officials as saying that the Israeli army and Hezbollah have drafted battle plans and are in the process of trying to procure additional weapons.

According to Politico, both sides have publicly said they do not want to go to war, but senior Biden officials increasingly believe that intense fighting is likely to break out despite efforts to try and prevent it.

Another senior US official told the newspaper that the risk is higher now than at any other point in recent weeks.

The official, like others in this story, was granted anonymity to speak freely about sensitive intelligence.

The US intelligence offers a slightly more conservative assessment than those coming from parts of Europe.

Some European countries calculate that a war between Israel and Hezbollah could happen in days.

Many have advised their citizens to leave Lebanon. Canada is also preparing to evacuate thousands from the country.

The State Department on Thursday issued a travel advisory for US citizens, urging them to “strongly reconsider” travel to Lebanon.

Two of the senior officials stressed that it was unclear when exactly the war could start but noted that Israel is trying to rebuild its stockpiles and troop capacity quickly.



Potential Hezbollah Leader Out of Contact Since Friday, Lebanese Source Says

A damaged vehicle lies amidst the rubble in the aftermath of the Israeli strikes, amid ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, in the Chiyah area of Dahiyeh, Beirut, October 5, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki
A damaged vehicle lies amidst the rubble in the aftermath of the Israeli strikes, amid ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, in the Chiyah area of Dahiyeh, Beirut, October 5, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki
TT

Potential Hezbollah Leader Out of Contact Since Friday, Lebanese Source Says

A damaged vehicle lies amidst the rubble in the aftermath of the Israeli strikes, amid ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, in the Chiyah area of Dahiyeh, Beirut, October 5, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki
A damaged vehicle lies amidst the rubble in the aftermath of the Israeli strikes, amid ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, in the Chiyah area of Dahiyeh, Beirut, October 5, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki

The potential successor to slain Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has been out of contact since Friday, a Lebanese security source said on Saturday, after an Israeli airstrike that is reported to have targeted him.

In its campaign against the Iran-backed Lebanese group, Israel carried out a large strike on Beirut's southern suburbs late on Thursday that Axios cited three Israeli officials as saying targeted Hashem Safieddine in an underground bunker.

The Lebanese security source and two other Lebanese security sources said that Israeli strikes since Friday on Dahiyeh, a residential suburb and Hezbollah stronghold in southern Beirut, have kept rescue workers from scouring the site of the attack.

Hezbollah has made no comment so far on Safieddine since the attack.

Israeli Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani said on Friday the military was still assessing the Thursday night airstrikes, which he said targeted Hezbollah's intelligence headquarters.

The loss of Nasrallah's rumored successor would be yet another blow to Hezbollah and its patron Iran. Israeli strikes across the region in the past year, sharply accelerated in the past few weeks, have decimated Hezbollah's leadership.

Israel expanded its conflict in Lebanon on Saturday with its first strike in the northern city of Tripoli, a Lebanese security official said, after more bombs hit Beirut suburbs and Israeli troops launched raids in the south.

Israel has begun an intense bombing campaign in Lebanon and sent troops across the border in recent weeks after nearly a year of exchanging fire with Hezbollah. Fighting had previously been mostly limited to the Israel-Lebanon border area, taking place in parallel to Israel's year-old war in Gaza against Palestinian group Hamas.

Israel says it aims to allow the safe return of tens of thousands of citizens to their homes in northern Israel, bombarded by Hezbollah since Oct. 8 last year.

The Israeli attacks have eliminated much of Hezbollah's senior military leadership, including Secretary General Nasrallah in an air attack on Sept. 27.

The Israeli assault has also killed hundreds of ordinary Lebanese, including rescue workers, Lebanese officials say, and forced 1.2 million people - almost a quarter of the population - to flee their homes.

Lebanon's health ministry said on Saturday that Israeli strikes had killed at least 25 people and wounded 127 others the day before.

The Lebanese security official told Reuters that Saturday's strike on a Palestinian refugee camp in Tripoli killed a member of Hamas, his wife and two children. Media affiliated with the Palestinian group said the strike killed a leader of its armed wing, naming him as Saeed Atallah.

The Israeli military did not immediately comment on the strike on Tripoli, a Sunni Muslim-majority port city that its warplanes also targeted during a 2006 war with Hezbollah.

It said in a later statement that it had killed two Hamas members operating in Lebanon, but did not say where they were killed. There was no immediate comment from Hamas.

ISRAEL WEIGHS OPTIONS FOR IRAN

The violence comes as the anniversary approaches of Hamas' attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, which killed 1,200 people and in which about 250 were taken as hostages, according to Israeli tallies.

Israel's subsequent assault on Gaza has killed nearly 42,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza's health ministry, and displaced nearly all of the enclave's population of 2.3 million.

Iran, which backs both Hezbollah and Hamas, and which has lost key commanders of its elite Revolutionary Guards Corps to Israeli air strikes in Syria this year, launched a salvo of ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday. The strikes did little damage.

Israel has been weighing options in its response to Iran's attack.

Oil prices have risen on the possibility of an attack on Iran's oil facilities as Israel pursues its goals of pushing back Hezbollah in Lebanon and eliminating their Hamas allies in Gaza.

US President Joe Biden on Friday urged Israel to consider alternatives to striking Iranian oil fields, adding that he thinks Israel has not yet concluded how to respond to Iran.

Israeli news website Ynet reported on Saturday that the top US general for the Middle East, Army General Michael Kurilla, is headed for Israel in the coming day. Israeli and US officials were not immediately reachable for comment.