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Despite Keeping its Distance, Syria Still Feels the Fallout of the Iran War

02 March 2026, Syria, Ain Terma: People watch the damage after an intercepted missile fell in a residential building in Ain Tarma town. Photo: Moawia Atrash/dpa
02 March 2026, Syria, Ain Terma: People watch the damage after an intercepted missile fell in a residential building in Ain Tarma town. Photo: Moawia Atrash/dpa
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Despite Keeping its Distance, Syria Still Feels the Fallout of the Iran War

02 March 2026, Syria, Ain Terma: People watch the damage after an intercepted missile fell in a residential building in Ain Tarma town. Photo: Moawia Atrash/dpa
02 March 2026, Syria, Ain Terma: People watch the damage after an intercepted missile fell in a residential building in Ain Tarma town. Photo: Moawia Atrash/dpa

Syria’s efforts to remain largely outside the direct line of fire in the war between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other have not spared it the consequences rippling across the region.

Missile debris has fallen on scattered parts of the country, gas and electricity shortages have resurfaced, border crossings with Lebanon have become crowded with Syrians returning home, and cargo shipments have been disrupted.

Long electricity outages, shortages of household cooking gas and rising prices have again cast a heavy shadow over daily life, only months after a period of relative improvement.

The Syrian Ministry of Energy said Monday that the reduction in electricity supply hours was due to a decline in natural gas volumes arriving through Jordan and allocated to operate power-generation stations. The ministry said the shortfall was tied to the current regional escalation, which has temporarily made it impossible to maintain gas flows under previous agreements.

In a statement published on its official channels, the ministry said technical teams are continuing to manage the electricity system using available domestic gas production. It added that rationing is being set according to available capacity to ensure grid stability and continued operation, while efforts continue to boost local gas output to support the power system and improve supply in the next phase.

Jordan Temporarily Halts Gas Deliveries

In what was described as an early direct reflection of the regional escalation, Jordan has temporarily halted gas deliveries to Syria, according to a report published Monday by the energy platform Al-Taqa.

Citing unnamed sources, the report said Israel’s cutoff of gas supplies to Jordan pushed Amman to prioritize domestic demand.

Syria relies in part on gas coming from Jordan to support electricity generation, amid weak local production and infrastructure worn down over recent years.

The Syrian government began receiving natural gas through Jordan on Jan. 8 at a rate of 4 million cubic meters per day under an agreement linked to the Arab Gas Pipeline. Damascus also signed an agreement with Jordan to supply Syria with about 140 million cubic feet per day in an effort to ease the country’s electricity crisis.

Missile Debris and Growing Caution

On Monday, authorities in Damascus said a transformer at the Al-Otaybah industrial substation in the Damascus countryside was knocked out of service after it was hit by falling missile debris resulting from the exchange of strikes between Israel and Iran.

Caution has spread across parts of rural Damascus and southern Syria after missile remnants fell over the past two days, injuring civilians. Local sources in Daraa province said schools were closed and residents were urged to limit movement and gatherings and to avoid unfamiliar objects.

Syrian Civil Defense teams responded Monday to an incident involving the fall of military objects in the village of Al-Futaih, in the Ain Al-Sharqiyah area of the Jableh countryside on Syria’s coast. The Ministry of Emergency Situations said the incident was linked to the ongoing regional developments and urged citizens to follow safety guidance.

Israeli Arrest and Crowded Border Crossings

Amid heightened tensions, Israel has continued violations inside Syrian territory, according to the report. Israeli forces detained a shepherd on Monday west of the village of Kudna in the southern Quneitra countryside.

The Syrian Arab News Agency, SANA, said “occupation forces escorted the young man into the occupied territories,” with no further information available on his fate.

As the escalation widens and Hezbollah in Lebanon comes under attack, Syrian-Lebanese border crossings have seen heavy movement, with large numbers of Syrians leaving Lebanon and returning to Syria.

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Arab World

Syria Fears War Fallout on Domestic Stability

Syrians who fled the war in Lebanon check in after arriving at the Syrian-Lebanese border crossing in Jdeidet Yabous, Syria, Tuesday, March 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Ghaith Alsayed)
Syrians who fled the war in Lebanon check in after arriving at the Syrian-Lebanese border crossing in Jdeidet Yabous, Syria, Tuesday, March 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Ghaith Alsayed)
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Syria Fears War Fallout on Domestic Stability

Syrians who fled the war in Lebanon check in after arriving at the Syrian-Lebanese border crossing in Jdeidet Yabous, Syria, Tuesday, March 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Ghaith Alsayed)
Syrians who fled the war in Lebanon check in after arriving at the Syrian-Lebanese border crossing in Jdeidet Yabous, Syria, Tuesday, March 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Ghaith Alsayed)

Syrian experts warned that escalating tensions in the region could drag on indefinitely, placing Syria at the heart of the crisis as the government struggles to meet citizens’ needs amid the return of hundreds of thousands of refugees from Lebanon and expectations of further returns from Türkiye and neighboring countries this summer.

Sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that if tensions ease in the near term, the impact of the ongoing regional war would be limited.

“But if it continues, the consequences will be catastrophic for countries with fragile economies, foremost among them Syria,” they said.

Even as the Energy Ministry denied any current shortages of petroleum products, Syrian refugees continued to stream back from Lebanon.

The state-run Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) said the Jousieh border crossing in Homs province recorded a noticeable rise on Tuesday in the number of returnees due to current security developments in the region.

The General Authority for Land and Sea Ports said on Monday that the Jdeidet Yabous and Jousieh crossings had received about 11,000 arrivals from Lebanon, most of them Syrians. It said it remained on full alert to handle the growing influx.

At home, early signs of strain are emerging. Lines have lengthened at household gas distribution centers, and electricity rationing hours have increased after a relative improvement in recent months.

The fallout from the regional escalation was immediate, economists said. Firas Shaabo told Asharq Al-Awsat that while Syria is not a direct party to the conflict, it sits at its economic center. A prolonged crisis would be devastating for fragile economies, especially Syria’s, he said.

Investors and institutions that signed agreements with Damascus would retreat into what he described as “internal hedging,” leaving Syria to cope alone.

That comes as hundreds of thousands of refugees return involuntarily from Lebanon and Iraq, with large numbers also expected from Türkiye this summer, along with expatriates - a heavy burden for a government already under strain.

Academic researcher and economic adviser Ziad Ayoub Arbache said the military escalation had morphed into an “economic shock,” rippling through oil prices, shipping lanes and civil aviation routes.

As regional security risks mount, fragile economies, led by Syria, are facing mounting pressure on energy supplies, supply chains and exchange rates amid warnings of disruptions.

The broad strikes on Iran carry economic implications, alongside threats to Gulf shipping.

Iranian strikes affecting the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 25% of global oil trade passes, have driven up insurance premiums and freight costs.

Arbache said higher shipping and insurance costs were already squeezing Syria’s access to fuel, industrial and food supplies, and production inputs. Oil, he noted, is used in the manufacture of 500,000 products in Syria. Energy-intensive sectors such as cement, food and agriculture have been hit, with output falling and prices rising, fueling inflation.

If the escalation widens, oil prices could top $100 a barrel, he warned. Factory closures, rising unemployment and shrinking remittances from expatriates, particularly in the Gulf, would likely follow.

Long-awaited investments could stall, capital could flee, and unemployment could climb again amid entrenched stagflation, especially in construction and tourism. A renewed energy crisis would pile further pressure on households.

The Energy Ministry said on Tuesday there was no shortage of gasoline, diesel or household gas. Refineries were operating normally, crude import contracts remained in place through approved channels, and operational stockpiles were within safe limits.

It said congestion at some fuel stations stemmed from an unprecedented spike in demand, with sales surging to more than 300% of the normal daily average due to fears over regional developments and the spread of rumors, not an actual supply shortfall.

Still, Shaabo warned of “very difficult days” ahead if tensions fail to subside. Syria depends heavily on imported essentials, while its production base is limited, reserves are weak and infrastructure worn down. Exchange rate distortions add further strain.

Syria’s external vulnerability outweighs its internal resilience, he said, and any global energy shock would quickly erode purchasing power and living standards.

Arbache agreed, saying Syria’s economy “is tied to the trajectory of the conflict through oil, transport and exchange rates.”

Between open-ended escalation and possible political containment, he said, the course of the war will determine economic and living stability in the period ahead.

Arab World

Syria Says Army Reinforces Deployment Along Border with Lebanon, Iraq

Syrian troops on patrol in the Hasakeh region. (AFP)
Syrian troops on patrol in the Hasakeh region. (AFP)
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Syria Says Army Reinforces Deployment Along Border with Lebanon, Iraq

Syrian troops on patrol in the Hasakeh region. (AFP)
Syrian troops on patrol in the Hasakeh region. (AFP)

Syria's defense ministry said it reinforced its border with Lebanon, and eight Syrian and Lebanese sources said this included rocket units and thousands of troops as conflict spread in the region including between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The sources included five Syrian military officers, a Syrian security official and two Lebanese security officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The Syrian defense ministry said in a statement on Wednesday that the army has reinforced its deployment along the Syrian borders with Lebanon and Iraq ‌as part of ‌efforts to “protect and control the borders amid the escalating regional ‌conflict”.

The ⁠deployed units belong ⁠to the border guard and reconnaissance battalions tasked with monitoring border activities and combating smuggling, the ministry added.

The Syrian officers said the Syrian reinforcement operation began in February but sped up in recent days. The Syrian and Lebanese armed forces did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The Syrian officers, including a senior member of the military, said the move was aimed at preventing arms and drugs smuggling as well blocking Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah ⁠or other militants from infiltrating Syria.

A Syrian officer told Reuters that ‌military formations from several Syrian army divisions, including ‌the 52nd and 84th Divisions, have expanded their presence along the border in western Homs countryside and ‌south of Tartus.

The reinforcements include infantry units, armored vehicles and short-range Grad and ‌Katyusha rocket launchers, the official said.

The Syrian security official said Damascus had no plans for military action against any neighboring country. “But Syria is prepared to deal with any security threat to itself or its partners,” he said.

Still, the move has fueled concern among some European and Lebanese officials ‌over a possible incursion.

The Syrian military officers vehemently denied any such plans, saying Syria wants balanced relations with its neighbor after ⁠decades of strained ⁠ties linked to Syria's outsized influence in Lebanon and Hezbollah's support for the former government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad during a 14-year civil war.

Syria had troops stationed in Lebanon from 1976 until 2005 including during Lebanon's civil war that ended in 1990.

Hezbollah resumed firing at Israel on Monday more than a year after reaching a ceasefire to a months-long war in 2024. Since that ceasefire, Israel continued near-daily strikes.

Israel this week ordered much of Lebanon's south evacuated, with tens of thousands of people displaced. Israeli airstrikes across Lebanon's South and southern Beirut have killed dozens and prompted thousands of people to flee towards Syria.

A senior Lebanese security official said Syrian authorities told Beirut that Syria's deployment of rocket launchers along the mountains that form Lebanon's eastern border with Syria was a “defensive measure against any action or attack that Hezbollah might launch against Syria."

Arab World

Lebanon: Hezbollah Ban Faces Legal, Security Test

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun speaks during a joint press conference with his German counterpart Frank-Walter Steinmeier, not pictured, at the presidential palace in Baabda, east of Beirut, Lebanon, Monday, Feb. 16, 2026. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun speaks during a joint press conference with his German counterpart Frank-Walter Steinmeier, not pictured, at the presidential palace in Baabda, east of Beirut, Lebanon, Monday, Feb. 16, 2026. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)
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Lebanon: Hezbollah Ban Faces Legal, Security Test

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun speaks during a joint press conference with his German counterpart Frank-Walter Steinmeier, not pictured, at the presidential palace in Baabda, east of Beirut, Lebanon, Monday, Feb. 16, 2026. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun speaks during a joint press conference with his German counterpart Frank-Walter Steinmeier, not pictured, at the presidential palace in Baabda, east of Beirut, Lebanon, Monday, Feb. 16, 2026. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

Lebanon’s government has entered a decisive test phase after banning the military and security activities of Hezbollah, a move President Joseph Aoun on Tuesday described as “sovereign and final, with no turning back,” despite open rejection from the group and rising domestic pressure for swift enforcement.

Aoun said the Lebanese army and security forces had been tasked with implementing the decision across all Lebanese territory. The judiciary has begun pursuing those responsible for launching rockets from Lebanon.

Calls are mounting for the move to go further, extending to everything linked to Hezbollah militarily, politically and financially.

Israel announced on Tuesday "broad-scale strikes" against Hezbollah after the group fired missiles on Israel to avenge the killing of Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei during US-Israeli strikes on Saturday.

Ministerial sources said implementation of the decision targeting Hezbollah’s military wing is underway, adding that enforcement now covers all armed manifestations of any kind across Lebanon. Previous discussions had focused only on areas south and north of the Litani River.

A judicial source told Asharq Al-Awsat that authorities had identified the missile launch site, specifically north of the Litani, and were tracking those behind the attack. Their names and identities have not yet been determined, the source said, although their affiliation is known.

Hezbollah rejected what it called the government’s “reckless decision.”

The head of its parliamentary bloc, MP Mohammed Raad, in a statement issued hours after reports indicated he had been assassinated in an Israeli strike on Monday, described it as a “decision to ban the rejection of aggression,” accusing the government of failing to carry out the “decision of war and peace.”

Criminal prosecutions and administrative action

Constitutional expert Dr. Saeed Malek said the government’s move “does not become fully effective unless followed by implementing decrees and measures issued by the competent ministries.”

Declaring a ban, he said, effectively places the party’s military and security wings outside the law, with all the consequences that entails.

Malek told Asharq Al-Awsat that the decision requires immediate criminal prosecutions before the Public Prosecutor at the Court of Cassation on charges including crimes against state security, forming an association aimed at undermining state authority, membership in an illegal armed organization, possession of military weapons without a license, and exposing Lebanon to hostile acts outside state authority.

These steps could lead to arrest warrants, travel bans and precautionary measures in line with legal procedures.

He said the move also requires administrative action by the Interior Ministry, including dissolving and closing headquarters and offices affiliated with the military and security wings, withdrawing licenses from linked associations and bodies, revoking the legal status of entities operating for their benefit directly or indirectly, and banning any related organizational activity under any name.

Administrative, political and financial impact

Implementation extends to the administrative and political spheres, Malek said, by treating affiliation with wings deemed outside the law as a legal obstacle to holding public office, running for elections or occupying ministerial and administrative posts, subject to due judicial process.

Financially, he said, it requires assigning Banque du Liban and the Special Investigation Commission to freeze accounts and assets, block any direct or indirect financing, subject linked individuals to special financial scrutiny when illicit funding is suspected, and bar any contracting or support from public institutions, municipalities and official bodies.

Pressure to move fast

Political pressure to enforce the decision immediately is intensifying.

Sami Gemayel, head of the Kataeb Party and an MP, said after meeting Aoun that while the decisions were “historic,” the real test lay in implementation.

Gemayel demanded that all military and security forces be placed at the disposal of the judiciary to enforce the decisions by force; otherwise, these judicial decisions remain without follow-up.

“The test is mobilizing all state capabilities to implement the decision, starting with arresting any Hezbollah security cell that may move in the coming period,” he said.

He called for activating army intelligence to monitor any such cells.

Lebanese Forces party chief Samir Geagea urged security and judicial authorities to take immediate, clear, practical steps to enforce the decision, warning of the dangerous consequences of hesitation.

MP Michel Moawad, after meeting Aoun, said “the state has effectively begun initial steps,” citing the arrest of individuals and the dismantling of some weapons depots.

Former MP Fares Soaid questioned whether arrest warrants in absentia should be issued against party leaders if rocket launches continue. MP Fadi Karam said there could be no state or stability under “consensual security,” urging security and judicial authorities to assume their responsibilities.