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Geopolitical Tensions Top Bahrain Summit’s Economic Agenda

Jeddah Islamic Port (General Ports Authority)
Jeddah Islamic Port (General Ports Authority)
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Geopolitical Tensions Top Bahrain Summit’s Economic Agenda

Jeddah Islamic Port (General Ports Authority)
Jeddah Islamic Port (General Ports Authority)

Geopolitical challenges and tensions in the Middle East cast a shadow over the Arab Summit that will be held in Bahrain on Thursday. However, these challenges can encourage Arab countries to move towards reaching a declaration of a common Arab market, amid the continued disruption of global supply chains and the emergence of the food security crisis.

The establishment of the Arab Common Market is likely to reduce the risks of dependence on global supply chains, which are suffering from successive disruptions that have already affected the growth rates of some economies, including Arab countries.

This advantage was clearly evident in the electrical interconnection agreements between Saudi Arabia and Egypt, as well as the integrated industrial partnership for sustainable economic development between Egypt, Bahrain, Jordan, the Emirates and Morocco.

Economic challenges

Economic growth rates represent an important challenge for Arab countries. Some states saw a decline in the employment rate and an increase in debt, as a result of the direct consequences of external factors on their economies, such as the Israeli war in Gaza, the Russian-Ukrainian war, and the repercussions of the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic.

These factors forced some countries to devalue their currencies against the dollar, which led to a decline in the purchasing value of consumers in parts of the Arab world, in parallel with an increase in inflation rates, which subsequently put pressure on Arab economies.

All these factors have led the International Labor Organization (ILO) to expect unemployment rates in the Arab region to remain high at levels of 9.8 percent during the current year.

Economic integration and the Arab market

The Arab countries have taken important steps towards economic integration, since the launch of the Arab Free Trade Area, which aims to increase levels of intra-trade and remove customs tariffs, leading to the Arab Customs Union, and then the Arab Common Market.

While supporting regional integration requires providing investment incentives and the transfer of intra-Arab capital, Arab countries have recently sought to integrate trade in services within intra-trade liberalization negotiations, in view of the strategic importance of the services sector and its contribution of about 48 percent of the gross domestic product.

In this context, the upcoming summit in Bahrain will discuss an important item on its agenda, which focuses on progress achieved in completing the requirements of the Greater Arab Free Trade Area and the establishment of the Arab Customs Union.

“The economic, social and development fields are the cornerstone of Arab action”, said Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit during the meeting of the Economic and Social Council within the preparations for the 33rd session of the League of Arab States Council meeting at the summit level.

In recent press statements, the Secretary General of the Union of Arab Chambers, Dr. Khaled Hanafi, expected intra-Arab trade to grow by 4 percent to 18 percent during 2025, explaining that the volume of trade among Arab countries is estimated at about $700 billion dollars.

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Saudi Arabia, Philippines to Join JPMorgan Emerging Market Bond Index in 2027

FILE PHOTO: Signage is seen at the JPMorgan Chase & Co. New York Head Quarters in Manhattan, New York City, US, June 30, 2022. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Signage is seen at the JPMorgan Chase & Co. New York Head Quarters in Manhattan, New York City, US, June 30, 2022. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File Photo
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Saudi Arabia, Philippines to Join JPMorgan Emerging Market Bond Index in 2027

FILE PHOTO: Signage is seen at the JPMorgan Chase & Co. New York Head Quarters in Manhattan, New York City, US, June 30, 2022. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Signage is seen at the JPMorgan Chase & Co. New York Head Quarters in Manhattan, New York City, US, June 30, 2022. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File Photo

J.P. Morgan said on Wednesday that Saudi Arabia and the Philippines will be added to its local currency emerging market debt index from January 29 next year.

The inclusion will cover Saudi riyal-denominated sovereign sukuk and Philippine peso-denominated government bonds, both entering the widely tracked GBI-EM ⁠index series.

Their weights ⁠will be introduced gradually, with Saudi Arabia expected to reach 2.52% and the Philippines 1.78% once fully phased in.

The update is part ⁠of a broader index adjustment, which will lower the "Country Cap" - the maximum weight, or share, any single country can hold in the "diversified" index - to 9% from 10%.

As a result, major markets including China, India, Mexico, Malaysia, and Indonesia will see their ⁠weight ⁠reduced to the new limit.

Based on current eligibility criteria, about eight Saudi sovereign sukuk with a combined value of roughly $69 billion could be included, JPMorgan said.

For the Philippines, nine eligible government bonds with a combined value of around $49 billion are under consideration.

Business

Oil to Fabric: Middle East Crises Reshape Global Fashion

A worker arranges spools of thread at a textile factory in Haiyan, Jiangsu province, China (Reuters)
A worker arranges spools of thread at a textile factory in Haiyan, Jiangsu province, China (Reuters)
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Oil to Fabric: Middle East Crises Reshape Global Fashion

A worker arranges spools of thread at a textile factory in Haiyan, Jiangsu province, China (Reuters)
A worker arranges spools of thread at a textile factory in Haiyan, Jiangsu province, China (Reuters)

Rising oil prices are no longer just an energy market story; they are feeding directly into the cost of clothing. From petrochemical plants to fabric mills and retail racks, a complex supply chain is passing on higher costs, pushing up the final price consumers pay.

According to the “Materials Market 2025” report by the Organization for Textile Exchange, polyester makes up about 59% of global fabric output, with roughly 88% produced from non-recycled petroleum sources, leaving the industry exposed to energy price swings.

Oil prices have surged about 32% since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran on Feb. 28, approaching $100 per barrel.

Fabrics under oil pressure

Amal Saqr, a textile design consultant, said the sector is highly sensitive to shifts in oil prices because of its reliance on synthetic fibers.

More than 60% of fabrics used in global clothing production depend on petroleum-based materials such as polyester, nylon and acrylic, she said, adding that any rise in oil prices feeds directly into fabric costs.

She pointed to 2008, when polyester prices jumped about 30% within three months as oil hit record highs, forcing Asian spinning mills to cut output by 20% to 25%.

Disruptions in the Red Sea between 2023 and 2024 also drove shipping costs up by about 300%, raising raw material costs and straining supply chains.

Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis began targeting ships linked to Israel on Nov. 19, 2023, using drones and missiles.

Natural fabrics not immune

Natural fibers such as cotton and linen avoid direct reliance on oil, but are still exposed to energy costs, Saqr said, noting that farming depends on fertilizers, fuel and transport.

The global fertilizer crisis in 2021 pushed prices up about 80%, driving cotton prices higher by roughly 40%. Later disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz added another 40% increase in fertilizer costs due to shipping delays.

Global cotton production reached about 24.5 million tons in 2024, or roughly 19% of total fiber output, making it less dominant than synthetic fibers but relatively more stable in pricing, according to the Textile Exchange report.

Rising production costs

Higher energy prices are hitting every stage of production, from spinning to dyeing and drying, Saqr said.

With already thin margins, textile factories face a stark choice: raise prices or cut output, both of which ultimately hit consumers.

World Bank data shows operating costs for textile factories in several countries have risen by about 18% following recent energy price increases.

Import markets feel it fast

Import-dependent markets are quick to absorb shocks from shipping or energy disruptions, Saqr said.

Shipping costs from Asia have lifted synthetic fabric prices by 10% to 18%, while imported cotton prices have climbed by 15% to 25%.

Rerouting shipments from the Strait of Hormuz to the Cape of Good Hope has added 10 to 14 days to transit times, leading to shortages and swings in the availability of fabrics and garments.

Value chains under rethink

Burak Cakmak, chief executive of the Saudi Fashion Commission, said the impact of oil prices is not immediate, as final pricing reflects a full value chain including production, marketing and distribution.

Instead of passing costs on, many brands are rethinking how to create value, improving efficiency and working more closely with suppliers, he said.

He also pointed to a shift toward localized production, with brands operating closer to their markets and managing inventory more tightly to control costs and improve flexibility.

Sustainability gains urgency

Sustainability is no longer just an environmental concern; it is tied to efficiency and long-term economic viability, Cakmak said.

The sector is moving toward circular models, including recycling and waste reduction, practices that are becoming essential to improving operations.

Designers double down

Anna Zinola, director of Istituto Marangoni in Riyadh, said rising oil prices are reinforcing, not reshaping, designers’ shift toward more conscious material choices.

Sustainability is embedded in the curriculum as a core approach guiding every design decision, she said.

Students are trained to balance cost, sustainability and consumer demand, while exploring material innovations that combine environmental and commercial goals.

Prices set to rise

Reports by McKinsey and Euratex expect global clothing prices to rise by 8% to 12% over the next year, as supply chain pressure persists and shipping costs remain elevated.

Business

Dollar Gains as Iran War Keeps Central Banks in Wait-and-see Mode

US dollar banknotes. (Reuters)
US dollar banknotes. (Reuters)
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Dollar Gains as Iran War Keeps Central Banks in Wait-and-see Mode

US dollar banknotes. (Reuters)
US dollar banknotes. (Reuters)

The dollar edged up against the euro on Wednesday on lingering concerns about the ongoing US-Israeli war with Iran, even after President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire to give Tehran more time to present a unified proposal for ending the conflict. Iran seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, tightening its grip on the strategic waterway, after Trump called off attacks indefinitely with no sign of peace talks restarting.

Markets have been swayed by alternating bouts of optimism that a deal is within reach and fears that the conflict could drag on, causing prolonged disruptions to energy markets.

"It's tough to have a really strong conviction at this point," said Dominic Bunning, head of G10 FX strategy at Nomura. That said, "overall it seems like both sides are more inclined to make progress than to re-escalate."

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was last up 0.06% at 98.44, with the euro down 0.09% at $1.1731. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.09% against the greenback to 159.26 per dollar. Sterling strengthened 0.01% to $1.3507.

CENTRAL BANKS ON HOLD

Markets are pricing in low odds that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year, given the risk that the war could fuel higher inflation.

Fed funds futures traders now see only a 35% chance of one cut by the end of 2026. Traders previously had forecast two cuts, with Kevin Warsh - Trump's nominee to lead the US central bank - seen as more likely to cut rates than Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Warsh said on Tuesday he had made no promises to Trump about cutting rates, seeking to assure senators considering his confirmation that he would act independently of the White House while pursuing broad reforms.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier this month that the Fed should "wait and see" before deciding whether to lower rates amid the war in Iran, noting that the US economy had been "very strong" in January and February.

"Since the war began, comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent make it seem like he recognizes that it might take Warsh some time to cut interest rates," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex.

"And this is what I think we're going to see next week. You've got five G10 central banks that meet and none of them are going to do anything. It's a watch-and-wait" situation, Chandler said.

The Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and Bank of Canada are all scheduled to hold policy meetings next week.