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China Flags More Fiscal Stimulus for Economy

FILE PHOTO: Chinese Finance Minister Lan Foan speaks at the China Development Forum (CDF) 2024, in Beijing, China March 24, 2024. REUTERS/Jing Xu/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Chinese Finance Minister Lan Foan speaks at the China Development Forum (CDF) 2024, in Beijing, China March 24, 2024. REUTERS/Jing Xu/File Photo
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China Flags More Fiscal Stimulus for Economy

FILE PHOTO: Chinese Finance Minister Lan Foan speaks at the China Development Forum (CDF) 2024, in Beijing, China March 24, 2024. REUTERS/Jing Xu/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Chinese Finance Minister Lan Foan speaks at the China Development Forum (CDF) 2024, in Beijing, China March 24, 2024. REUTERS/Jing Xu/File Photo

China pledged on Saturday to "significantly increase" debt to revive its sputtering economy, but left investors guessing on the overall size of the stimulus package, a vital detail to gauge the longevity of its recent stock market rally.
Finance Minister Lan Foan told a press conference Beijing will help local governments tackle their debt problems, offer subsidies to people with low incomes, support the property market and replenish state banks' capital, among other measures.
These are all steps investors have been urging China to take as the world's second-largest economy loses momentum and struggles to overcome deflationary pressures and lift
consumer confidence amid a sharp property market downturn, Reuters reported.
But Lan's omission of a dollar figure for the package is likely to prolong investors' nervous wait for a clearer policy roadmap until the next meeting of China's rubber-stamp legislature, which approves extra debt issuance. A date for the meeting has yet to be announced but it is expected in coming weeks.
The press conference "was strong on determination but lacking in numerical details," said Vasu Menon, managing director for investment strategy at OCBC in Singapore.
"The big bang fiscal stimulus that investors were hoping for to keep the stock market rally going did not come through," said Menon, adding this may "disappoint some" in the market.
A wide range of economic data in recent months has missed forecasts, raising concerns among economists and investors that the government's roughly 5% growth target this year was at risk and that a longer-term structural slowdown could be in play.
Data for September, which will be released over the coming week, is expected to show further weakness, but officials have expressed "full confidence" that the 2024 target will be met.
New fiscal stimulus has been the subject of intense speculation in global financial markets after a September meeting of the Communist Party's top leaders, the Politburo, signaled an increased sense of urgency about the economy.
Chinese stocks reached two-year highs, spiking 25% within days since that meeting, before retreating as nerves set in given the absence of further policy details from officials. Global commodity markets from iron ore to industrial metals and oil have also been volatile on hopes stimulus will stoke sluggish Chinese demand.
Reuters reported last month that China plans to issue special sovereign bonds worth about 2 trillion yuan ($284.43 billion) this year as part of fresh fiscal stimulus.
Half of that would be used to help local governments tackle their debt problems, while the other half will subsidize purchases of home appliances and other goods as well as finance a monthly allowance of about 800 yuan, or $114, per child to all households with two or more children.
Separately, Bloomberg News reported that China is also considering injecting up to 1 trillion yuan of capital into its biggest state banks, though analysts say more lending firepower will come up against stubbornly weak credit demand.

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The Future of Revenues in Syria: Challenges and Opportunities for the Interim Government

A money changer conducts a transaction in US dollars and Syrian pounds for a client on a street in Damascus (AFP)
A money changer conducts a transaction in US dollars and Syrian pounds for a client on a street in Damascus (AFP)
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The Future of Revenues in Syria: Challenges and Opportunities for the Interim Government

A money changer conducts a transaction in US dollars and Syrian pounds for a client on a street in Damascus (AFP)
A money changer conducts a transaction in US dollars and Syrian pounds for a client on a street in Damascus (AFP)

Syria faces significant challenges as discussions intensify about the post-Bashar al-Assad era, particularly in securing the necessary revenues for the Syrian interim government to meet the country’s needs and ensure its sustainability. The widespread destruction of the economy and infrastructure poses a dual challenge: rebuilding the nation while stimulating economic activity and ensuring sufficient financial resources for governance.

Currently, the interim government relies heavily on international and regional support during the transitional phase. Donor countries are expected to provide financial and technical assistance to help rebuild institutions and alleviate the suffering of the Syrian people.

However, as the country transitions, external support alone will not suffice. The government must identify sustainable revenue sources, such as managing natural resources, imposing taxes, and encouraging foreign investments.

Opportunities from the Syrian Diaspora

The Syrian diaspora is seen as a significant economic resource, contributing through remittances or involvement in reconstruction projects. However, realizing these opportunities requires the establishment of strong, transparent institutions, effective resource management, and a clear strategic plan to rebuild trust with both local and international communities.

Securing revenues for the interim government is not merely a financial challenge but also a test of its ability to lead Syria toward stability and prosperity.

Securing Economic Resources

Nasser Zuhair, head of the Economic and Diplomatic Affairs Unit at the European Policy Organization, stated that the interim government, currently led by Mohammed al-Bashir, may replicate its revenue-generating models from Idlib. Resources in Idlib were drawn from temporary measures that are insufficient for sustaining a national economy like Syria’s.

In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, Zuhair explained that these resources included taxation, fuel trade with Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)-controlled areas, international aid for displaced persons in Idlib, remittances from the Syrian diaspora, and cross-border trade facilitated by Turkiye.

“The interim government believes that sanctions relief is a matter of months, after which it can begin to establish a sustainable economy. For now, it will rely on the same resources and strategies used in Idlib and other controlled areas,” Zuhair added.

Challenges and Opportunities

Despite the former regime’s reliance on illicit revenues, such as drug trafficking and Captagon production—estimated to account for 25% of government revenues—the interim government has several potential avenues for generating revenue.

International Aid

Zuhair emphasized that cross-border humanitarian aid indirectly supports local economies. “The current government understands that international and regional aid will be substantial in the coming period, particularly for refugee repatriation and infrastructure development,” he noted.

He added that efforts to secure funding from the Brussels Conference, which allocates about $7 billion annually to support Syria, will be critical. Strengthening ties with regional and European countries, such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Germany, and the UK, is also a priority. However, securing such aid depends on establishing a political framework where Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) does not dominate governance.

He further noted that international and regional support will likely remain a key revenue source for the interim government, including humanitarian and developmental aid from organizations such as the United Nations and the World Bank.

Taxes and Tariffs

Zuhair highlighted taxes and tariffs as essential components of the government’s revenue strategy. This includes taxing local economic activities, customs duties on cross-border trade, and fair taxes on merchants and industrialists in major cities like Damascus and Aleppo.

“The government can also impose income, corporate, and property taxes while improving border management to maximize revenue from customs and tariffs,” he added.

Agriculture and Natural Resources

Syria’s vast and fertile agricultural lands present an opportunity for revenue generation, Zuhair underlined, explaining that taxes on agricultural products could contribute to state income. However, this sector faces logistical challenges and high production costs. By directing the agricultural sector toward self-sufficiency, the government could reduce dependence on imports and create surplus revenue, he remarked.

Additionally, managing natural resources such as oil and gas could provide a significant revenue stream if the government gains control over resource-rich areas like northeastern Syria, the official noted.

Reconstruction

Reconstruction presents another potential revenue source. International companies could be encouraged to invest in rebuilding efforts in exchange for fees or taxes. Public-private partnerships with local and foreign firms in sectors such as infrastructure and housing could also generate significant funds.

Remittances from the Diaspora

Zuhair stressed the importance of remittances from Syrians abroad, estimating that these transfers could reach $2 billion annually by 2025. Encouraging the diaspora to send funds to support family members and rebuild properties will be a key priority for the government.

Domestic Investments

The interim government has shown its ability to attract domestic investments in real estate, industry, commerce, and agriculture, despite international sanctions. According to Zuhair, leveraging Türkiye as an international gateway, the government could expand this model across Syria, taking advantage of the challenging economic conditions left by the previous regime to draw reasonable investments in its first year.

Tourism and Small Businesses

Revitalizing the tourism sector could directly contribute to revenue, he added, noting that restoring historical and cultural sites, once security and stability are achieved, will attract visitors and generate income.

In addition, encouraging small and medium-sized enterprises will help revive the economy and create jobs, Zuhair emphasized, pointing that supporting manufacturing industries could provide a sustainable revenue stream.