Dollar Strong, Stocks Creep Higher as Second Trump Term Dawns

A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
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Dollar Strong, Stocks Creep Higher as Second Trump Term Dawns

A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo

The dollar was firm and Asia's stock markets were cautiously positive on Monday as investors waited for an expected flurry of policy announcements in the first hours of Donald Trump's second presidency and eyed a rate hike in Japan at the end of the week.
Trump takes the oath of office at noon Eastern Time (1700 GMT), and promised a "brand new day of American strength" at a rally on Sunday, Reuters said.
He has stoked expectations he will issue a slew of executive orders right away and, in a reminder of his unpredictability, launched a digital token on Friday, which soared to trade above $70 at one point for a total market value north of $15 billion.
Monday is a US holiday, so the first responses to his inauguration in traditional financial markets may be felt in foreign exchange, where traders are focused on Trump's tariff policies, and then in Asian trade on Tuesday.
US equity futures were a fraction weaker in the Asian morning on Monday while the dollar, which has rallied since September on strong US data and as Trump's ultimately successful political campaign gained momentum, held steady.
Japan's Nikkei rose 1%.
Last week the S&P 500 notched the biggest weekly percentage gain since early November and the Nasdaq its largest since early December on some benign inflation data.
The dollar is up around 8% on the euro since September and at $1.0273 is not far from last week's two-year high. But so much is priced in that some analysts feel a more gradual start to US tariff hikes may draw out some sellers.
"A forceful start to Trump's new term could rattle nerves and give the dollar more support," said Corpay currency strategist Peter Dragicevich.
"By contrast, based on what already looks baked in, we think a more measured approach may ease fears and see the dollar lose ground, as it did after Trump took charge in 2017."
Trump has threatened tariffs of as much as 10% on global imports and 60% on Chinese goods, plus a 25% import surcharge on Canadian and Mexican products, duties that trade experts say would upend trade flows, raise costs and draw retaliation.
The Canadian dollar touched a five-year low of C$1.4486 per dollar on Monday. The Mexican peso hit a 2-1/2 year low of 20.94 per dollar on Friday.
Bitcoin dipped in the early part of the Asian day but remained above $100,000. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields closed out Friday at 4.61%, up nearly 100 basis points in four months.
CHINA FOCUS
China is in focus as the target of the harshest potential trade levies. Investors lately cheered better-than-expected Chinese growth data and a Friday phone call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping that left both upbeat.
"Basically everyone is waiting for these trade negotiations to begin and see what kind of attitude Xi Jinping takes with Trump," Ken Peng, head of Asia investment strategy at Citi Wealth told reporters in Singapore at an outlook briefing.
"That relationship between the two gentlemen has become very important as a leading indicator of policies."
Chinese equity markets rose last week and futures pointed to modest gains for Hong Kong shares at the open.
The yuan is seen likely to slowly adjust to any shifts in trade policy and was marginally firmer at 7.3355 per dollar in offshore trade.
The Australian dollar, sensitive to trade flows and China's economy, has scraped off five-year lows and, according to Commonwealth Bank strategist Joe Capurso, could test resistance at $0.6322 if Trump's policy changes fall short of market expectations. It was last at $0.62.
Japan's yen rallied last week as remarks from Bank of Japan policymakers were taken as hints that a rate cut is likely on Friday.
It was last steady at 156.17 per dollar and rates markets priced about an 80% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike.
In commodities gold hovered at $2,694 an ounce and Brent crude futures ticked higher to $81.21 a barrel.



Gaza Faces Multi-billion-dollar Reconstruction Challenge

A drone view shows Palestinians walking past the rubble of houses and buildings destroyed in Israeli strikes during the war, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip, January 20, 2025. REUTERS/Mohammed Salem
A drone view shows Palestinians walking past the rubble of houses and buildings destroyed in Israeli strikes during the war, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip, January 20, 2025. REUTERS/Mohammed Salem
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Gaza Faces Multi-billion-dollar Reconstruction Challenge

A drone view shows Palestinians walking past the rubble of houses and buildings destroyed in Israeli strikes during the war, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip, January 20, 2025. REUTERS/Mohammed Salem
A drone view shows Palestinians walking past the rubble of houses and buildings destroyed in Israeli strikes during the war, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip, January 20, 2025. REUTERS/Mohammed Salem

Billions of dollars will be needed to rebuild Gaza after the war between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas, according to assessments from the United Nations, Reuters reported. A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas took effect on Sunday, suspending a 15-month-old war that has devastated the Gaza Strip and inflamed the Middle East.
Here is a breakdown of the destruction in Gaza from the conflict prompted by the Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel by militants from Hamas, which at the time ruled the Palestinian enclave.
HOW MANY CASUALTIES ARE THERE? The Hamas attack on Israel killed 1,200 people, according to Israeli tallies. Israel's retaliation has killed more than 46,000 people, according to Gaza's health ministry.
HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE TO CLEAR THE RUBBLE? A UN damage assessment released this month showed that clearing over 50 million tons of rubble left in the aftermath of Israel's bombardment could take 21 years and cost up to $1.2 billion. The debris is believed to be contaminated with asbestos, with some refugee camps struck during the war known to have been built with the material. The rubble also likely holds human remains. The Palestinian Ministry of Health estimates that 10,000 bodies are missing under the debris. A United Nations Development Program official said on Sunday that development in Gaza has been set back by 69 years as a result of the conflict.
HOW MANY BUILDINGS HAVE BEEN DESTROYED?
Rebuilding Gaza's shattered homes will take at least until 2040, but could drag on for many decades, according to a UN report released last year. Two-thirds of Gaza's pre-war structures - over 170,000 buildings - have been damaged or flattened, according to U. satellite data (UNOSAT) in December. That amounts to around 69% of the total structures in the Gaza Strip.
Within the count are a total of 245,123 housing units, according to an estimate from UNOSAT. Currently, over 1.8 million people are in need of emergency shelter in Gaza, the UN humanitarian office said.
WHAT IS THE INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE? The estimated damage to infrastructure totaled $18.5 billion as of end-January 2024, affecting residential buildings, commerce, industry, and essential services such as education, health, and energy, a UN-World Bank report said. It has not provided a more recent estimate for that figure.
An update by the UN humanitarian office this month showed that less than a quarter of the pre-war water supplies were available, while at least 68% of the road network has been damaged.
HOW WILL GAZA FEED ITSELF? More than half of Gaza's agricultural land, crucial for feeding the war-ravaged territory's hungry population, has been degraded by conflict, satellite images analyzed by the United Nations show.
The data reveals a rise in the destruction of orchards, field crops and vegetables in the Palestinian enclave, where hunger is widespread after 15 months of Israeli bombardment.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization said last year that 15,000 cattle, or over 95%, of the total had been slaughtered or died since the conflict began and nearly half the sheep.
WHAT ABOUT SCHOOLS, UNIVERSITIES, RELIGIOUS BUILDINGS?
Palestinian data shows that the conflict has led to the destruction of over 200 government facilities, 136 schools and universities, 823 mosques and three churches. Many hospitals have been damaged during the conflict, with only 17 out of 36 units partially functional as of January, the UN humanitarian office's report showed.
Amnesty International's Crisis Evidence Lab has highlighted the extent of destruction along Gaza's eastern boundary. As of May 2024, over 90% of the buildings in this area, including more than 3,500 structures, were either destroyed or severely damaged.