Washington's Struggling Economy Takes Another Economic Hit from the Government Shutdown

 A person walks toward the entrance of the Capital Area Food Bank, Thursday, Nov. 6, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)
A person walks toward the entrance of the Capital Area Food Bank, Thursday, Nov. 6, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)
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Washington's Struggling Economy Takes Another Economic Hit from the Government Shutdown

 A person walks toward the entrance of the Capital Area Food Bank, Thursday, Nov. 6, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)
A person walks toward the entrance of the Capital Area Food Bank, Thursday, Nov. 6, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

With the combination of the longest government shutdown, the mass firings of government workers and a fresh cut in federal food aid, the Capital Area Food Bank in Washington is bracing for the swell of people who will need its help before the holiday season.

The food bank, which serves 400 pantries and aid organizations in the District of Columbia, northern Virginia and two Maryland counties, is providing 8 million more meals than it had prepared to this budget year — a nearly 20% increase, The AP news reported.

The city is being hit “especially hard," said Radha Muthiah, the group's CEO and president, "because of the sequence of events that has occurred over the course of this year."

The nation's capital has been battered by a series of decisions by the Trump administration, from the layoffs of federal workers to the ongoing law enforcement intervention into the district. The added blow of the shutdown, which has furloughed workers and paused money for food assistance, is only deepening the economic toll.

The latest figures from the D.C. Office of Revenue Analysis do not account for workforce changes since the shutdown that began Oct. 1. But even the September jobs report shows that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate hovers at 6%, compared with the most recent national rate of 4.3%, and has been the highest in the nation for months.

The economic woes appear to be reverberating politically. Democrat Abigail Spanberger won election Tuesday as Virginia's governor after focusing her campaign message on the effects of President Donald Trump's actions on the state’s economy.

The shutdown's long-term impact on the regional economy will be felt long after the government reopens, experts say.

Local businesses feeling the crunch Washington has the country's largest share of federal workers — about 20%, according to official figures — and roughly 150,000 federal employees call the area home. By Monday, hundreds of thousands of federal workers across the country will have missed at least two full paychecks because of the shutdown. Nationally, at least 670,000 federal employees are furloughed, while about 730,000 are working without pay, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center.

During the shutdown, the number of federal employees on Washington’s transit system each weekday has dropped by about one-quarter compared with ridership in September. Eateries that the Restaurant Association of Greater Washington says were already dealing with thin margins from seasonal declines and the fallout from Trump’s deployment of armed National Guard members on city streets are facing more challenges at a time when owners had hoped for a rebound.

Tracy Hadden Loh, a fellow at Brookings Metro, a think tank, said that going without paychecks is causing significant cash flow issues for federal workers, potentially leading to defaults on mortgages and student loans. For local businesses, especially those reliant on federal workers’ discretionary spending, it could exacerbate the impact during the high-sales October-December quarter.

“A lot of businesses rely on higher spending in Q4 in order to have a revenue positive year,” Loh said.

Small businesses are feeling the loss of that spending.

The crowd watching Liverpool's Premier League game last weekend would have been standing room only at The Queen Vic, a bar in Northeast Washington. But that was not the case, said Ryan Gordon, co-owner of the British pub.

“We still had seats for people, which means the bars around us who get our overflow got nothing,” Gordon said.

Business is down about 50% compared with what it was before the shutdown, he said. He considers himself lucky in the local restaurant scene because he owns the building and does not have to pay rent.

“To the extent to which discretionary spending by D.C. area households is limited, that could push a lot of local businesses into the red,” Loh said. The culmination of the shutdown, cut in SNAP benefits and layoffs are weighing heavy on households that have never sought help before, she added.

A family gets squeezed out of the region Thea Price was fired from her job at the U.S. Institute of Peace in March of this year, part of the wave of layoffs meant to shrink the size of the federal government. Her husband, a government contractor, also lost his job at a museum. Since then, they have lived on savings, Medicaid and SNAP.

Price, 37, recently went to a food pantry in Arlington, Virginia, for the first time recently. The shutdown halted funding for SNAP, after it took her months to get it, and the $500 payments she receives each month were set to stop. Virginia sent a partial payment but it was not enough, Price said. With her options to sustain herself and her family running out, Price is moving back to her hometown in the Seattle area.

“We can’t afford to stay in the area any longer and hope that something might pan out,” she said. “We’re just in a much different place than when these things started in March.”

At the Capital Area Food Bank in Northeast Washington, forklifts sped around in a controlled chaos, unloading trucks, moving food and preparing for a distribution set up for federal employees and contractors, and preparations are intensifying with the holiday season in mind. The organization is expecting to provide 1 million more meals this month than it had anticipated before the shutdown.

“We’re very focused obviously on the immediacy of all of these impacts today and getting food to those who need it," said Muthiah, the group's director. But she cautioned there were long-term implications to the unfolding crisis, with people tapping their savings and retirement funds to get by.

“People are borrowing against their futures to be able to pay for basic necessities today,” she said.



Oil to Fabric: Middle East Crises Reshape Global Fashion

A worker arranges spools of thread at a textile factory in Haiyan, Jiangsu province, China (Reuters)
A worker arranges spools of thread at a textile factory in Haiyan, Jiangsu province, China (Reuters)
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Oil to Fabric: Middle East Crises Reshape Global Fashion

A worker arranges spools of thread at a textile factory in Haiyan, Jiangsu province, China (Reuters)
A worker arranges spools of thread at a textile factory in Haiyan, Jiangsu province, China (Reuters)

Rising oil prices are no longer just an energy market story; they are feeding directly into the cost of clothing. From petrochemical plants to fabric mills and retail racks, a complex supply chain is passing on higher costs, pushing up the final price consumers pay.

According to the “Materials Market 2025” report by the Organization for Textile Exchange, polyester makes up about 59% of global fabric output, with roughly 88% produced from non-recycled petroleum sources, leaving the industry exposed to energy price swings.

Oil prices have surged about 32% since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran on Feb. 28, approaching $100 per barrel.

Fabrics under oil pressure

Amal Saqr, a textile design consultant, said the sector is highly sensitive to shifts in oil prices because of its reliance on synthetic fibers.

More than 60% of fabrics used in global clothing production depend on petroleum-based materials such as polyester, nylon and acrylic, she said, adding that any rise in oil prices feeds directly into fabric costs.

She pointed to 2008, when polyester prices jumped about 30% within three months as oil hit record highs, forcing Asian spinning mills to cut output by 20% to 25%.

Disruptions in the Red Sea between 2023 and 2024 also drove shipping costs up by about 300%, raising raw material costs and straining supply chains.

Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis began targeting ships linked to Israel on Nov. 19, 2023, using drones and missiles.

Natural fabrics not immune

Natural fibers such as cotton and linen avoid direct reliance on oil, but are still exposed to energy costs, Saqr said, noting that farming depends on fertilizers, fuel and transport.

The global fertilizer crisis in 2021 pushed prices up about 80%, driving cotton prices higher by roughly 40%. Later disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz added another 40% increase in fertilizer costs due to shipping delays.

Global cotton production reached about 24.5 million tons in 2024, or roughly 19% of total fiber output, making it less dominant than synthetic fibers but relatively more stable in pricing, according to the Textile Exchange report.

Rising production costs

Higher energy prices are hitting every stage of production, from spinning to dyeing and drying, Saqr said.

With already thin margins, textile factories face a stark choice: raise prices or cut output, both of which ultimately hit consumers.

World Bank data shows operating costs for textile factories in several countries have risen by about 18% following recent energy price increases.

Import markets feel it fast

Import-dependent markets are quick to absorb shocks from shipping or energy disruptions, Saqr said.

Shipping costs from Asia have lifted synthetic fabric prices by 10% to 18%, while imported cotton prices have climbed by 15% to 25%.

Rerouting shipments from the Strait of Hormuz to the Cape of Good Hope has added 10 to 14 days to transit times, leading to shortages and swings in the availability of fabrics and garments.

Value chains under rethink

Burak Cakmak, chief executive of the Saudi Fashion Commission, said the impact of oil prices is not immediate, as final pricing reflects a full value chain including production, marketing and distribution.

Instead of passing costs on, many brands are rethinking how to create value, improving efficiency and working more closely with suppliers, he said.

He also pointed to a shift toward localized production, with brands operating closer to their markets and managing inventory more tightly to control costs and improve flexibility.

Sustainability gains urgency

Sustainability is no longer just an environmental concern; it is tied to efficiency and long-term economic viability, Cakmak said.

The sector is moving toward circular models, including recycling and waste reduction, practices that are becoming essential to improving operations.

Designers double down

Anna Zinola, director of Istituto Marangoni in Riyadh, said rising oil prices are reinforcing, not reshaping, designers’ shift toward more conscious material choices.

Sustainability is embedded in the curriculum as a core approach guiding every design decision, she said.

Students are trained to balance cost, sustainability and consumer demand, while exploring material innovations that combine environmental and commercial goals.

Prices set to rise

Reports by McKinsey and Euratex expect global clothing prices to rise by 8% to 12% over the next year, as supply chain pressure persists and shipping costs remain elevated.


Dollar Gains as Iran War Keeps Central Banks in Wait-and-see Mode

US dollar banknotes. (Reuters)
US dollar banknotes. (Reuters)
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Dollar Gains as Iran War Keeps Central Banks in Wait-and-see Mode

US dollar banknotes. (Reuters)
US dollar banknotes. (Reuters)

The dollar edged up against the euro on Wednesday on lingering concerns about the ongoing US-Israeli war with Iran, even after President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire to give Tehran more time to present a unified proposal for ending the conflict. Iran seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, tightening its grip on the strategic waterway, after Trump called off attacks indefinitely with no sign of peace talks restarting.

Markets have been swayed by alternating bouts of optimism that a deal is within reach and fears that the conflict could drag on, causing prolonged disruptions to energy markets.

"It's tough to have a really strong conviction at this point," said Dominic Bunning, head of G10 FX strategy at Nomura. That said, "overall it seems like both sides are more inclined to make progress than to re-escalate."

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was last up 0.06% at 98.44, with the euro down 0.09% at $1.1731. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.09% against the greenback to 159.26 per dollar. Sterling strengthened 0.01% to $1.3507.

CENTRAL BANKS ON HOLD

Markets are pricing in low odds that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year, given the risk that the war could fuel higher inflation.

Fed funds futures traders now see only a 35% chance of one cut by the end of 2026. Traders previously had forecast two cuts, with Kevin Warsh - Trump's nominee to lead the US central bank - seen as more likely to cut rates than Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Warsh said on Tuesday he had made no promises to Trump about cutting rates, seeking to assure senators considering his confirmation that he would act independently of the White House while pursuing broad reforms.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier this month that the Fed should "wait and see" before deciding whether to lower rates amid the war in Iran, noting that the US economy had been "very strong" in January and February.

"Since the war began, comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent make it seem like he recognizes that it might take Warsh some time to cut interest rates," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex.

"And this is what I think we're going to see next week. You've got five G10 central banks that meet and none of them are going to do anything. It's a watch-and-wait" situation, Chandler said.

The Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and Bank of Canada are all scheduled to hold policy meetings next week.


Türkiye Central Bank Holds Rates at 37% as it Eyes Iran War Fallout

Central Bank of Türkiye (official website)
Central Bank of Türkiye (official website)
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Türkiye Central Bank Holds Rates at 37% as it Eyes Iran War Fallout

Central Bank of Türkiye (official website)
Central Bank of Türkiye (official website)

Türkiye's central bank held its key interest rate at 37% as expected on Wednesday, deciding not to hike but warning that fallout from the Iran war could yet change the inflation outlook.

It was the second straight policy meeting at which the bank held steady despite some expectations that it could tighten, suggesting it was preparing to stand pat well into the summer, analysts said.

The central bank also did not adjust its overnight lending and borrowing rates from 40% and 35.5% respectively. Since the war started in late February, it has halted an easing cycle that began in late 2024 and taken other liquidity steps that pushed the lira overnight rate up to the 40% limit - moves that prompted some analysts to predict a 300-point hike this week.

The bank said it is closely monitoring any "potential second-round effects" on inflation, for which "leading indicators suggest a slight increase in the underlying trend in April".

"Amid geopolitical developments and the resulting uncertainties, energy prices remain elevated and exhibit notable volatility," its policy committee added.

In a Reuters poll, 19 of 23 economists predicted no change to borrowing costs, while four forecast a rate hike. The war-related surge in energy prices has rattled import-heavy economies like Türkiye where inflation was 30.87% last month, but where expectations have risen. On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump extended the war ceasefire indefinitely.

The ceasefire allowed the central bank "to refrain from tightening," William Jackson, economist at Capital Economics, said in a note. "So long as energy prices don't spike again, we think the CBRT will opt to leave interest rates on hold for at least a few more months."

Economists generally anticipate that rate cuts may resume in September. The Reuters poll predicted rates would be cut to only 32.75% by year-end. A separate poll found end-2026 consumer price inflation at 27.53%, compared with 25.38% in a previous poll.

In its quarterly inflation report in February - before the war began - the central bank had kept its end-2026 interim inflation target at 16%, while lifting its forecast range to 15-21% from 13-19% previously.

A year ago, the central bank temporarily reversed course and hiked rates in the face of political instability that rattled markets, though it returned to rate cuts by mid-2025.