WTO Reform Talks Face US-Indian Obstacles

Delegates applaud during the opening of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) 14th ministerial meeting in Yaounde, Cameroon, on 26th March, 2026.  (WTO/Handout via Reuters)
Delegates applaud during the opening of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) 14th ministerial meeting in Yaounde, Cameroon, on 26th March, 2026.  (WTO/Handout via Reuters)
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WTO Reform Talks Face US-Indian Obstacles

Delegates applaud during the opening of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) 14th ministerial meeting in Yaounde, Cameroon, on 26th March, 2026.  (WTO/Handout via Reuters)
Delegates applaud during the opening of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) 14th ministerial meeting in Yaounde, Cameroon, on 26th March, 2026.  (WTO/Handout via Reuters)

Large differences remain between most countries and the US and India as trade ministers meet to discuss reforms at the World Trade Organization, two diplomats told Reuters on Friday.

The ministers are meeting in Yaounde, Cameroon, as the organization faces a critical test to its future amid a year of tariff-fueled trade turmoil and major disruption to shipping, energy prices and supply chains due to the Middle East conflict.

“There is a real commitment among ministers to reach an agreement on reforms, but there is a big elephant in the room blocking: India and the US,” a senior diplomat told Reuters.

Another diplomat from an African country said India so far has not shown signs of a change in position. Some flexibility, however, might be possible, the person added. The diplomats declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the negotiations.

While the US and India acknowledge the need to reform the global trading system, they have resisted proposals of a substantive workplan on reforms.

“Unfortunately on reform I don't see much room for maneuver between ⁠the US and India's positions,” said the senior diplomat.

India has also opposed an agreement to aid investment into developing countries and the US desire to permanently extend an e-commerce moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions like digital downloads, which expires this month.

“The US, China, EU and UK positions are reasonable, but there is one party that we need to see compromise from to make progress - India,” said Chris Southworth, the Secretary General of the UK International Chamber of Commerce.

“I think frustration among members will start to spillover here in Yaounde if we see no progress,” he added.

India’s Position

India's Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal has cast doubt on US efforts to extend the e-commerce moratorium, saying it warranted a “careful reconsideration.” India is concerned about a loss of tariff revenue.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Thursday Washington ⁠was not interested in a temporary extension to the ban, only a permanent one.

Goyal has also challenged moves by the EU, US, Canada and others for a subset of members to take decisions plurilaterally, saying any outcome should be agreed by consensus.

That has cast a shadow over whether an Investment Facilitation for Development Agreement to encourage foreign direct investment in developing and least-developed countries can be incorporated into the WTO rule book in Yaounde.

Türkiye on Thursday lifted its opposition to it.

Goyal's position showed India wants to protect the WTO's core architecture, said Ajay Srivastava, founder of think ⁠tank Global Trade Research Initiative and a former Indian negotiator.

“Together, these risk turning the WTO from a rules-based body into one driven by power and selective coalitions,” he said.

There is also deadlock over one of New Delhi's key priorities: a permanent solution on public stock holding to allow developing countries to give subsidies to rice and wheat farmers through a price support mechanism.

Big agricultural exporters ⁠like the US, EU and Australia fear it would let countries like India build large stocks of foodstuffs and dispose surpluses, potentially distorting trade.

Randa Sengupta, a senior researcher at think tank, the Third World Network, said PSH was important for supporting farmers and enabling food security for poorer communities in India.

‘Constructive’ Talks

Still, a concrete reform workplan was within ⁠reach, Norway's Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide told Reuters.

“People are beginning to engage in the real questions,” he said, pointing to talks on the WTO's Most Favored Nation principle to treat states equally, while allowing exceptions to national security.

Similarly, Britain's Business Secretary Peter Kyle said a text on reforms was emerging and that constructive talks were taking place to ensure broad agreement.

Caption: Delegates applaud during the opening of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) 14th ministerial meeting in Yaounde, Cameroon, on 26th March, 2026. (WTO/Handout via Reuters)



Dollar Gains as Iran War Keeps Central Banks in Wait-and-see Mode

US dollar banknotes. (Reuters)
US dollar banknotes. (Reuters)
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Dollar Gains as Iran War Keeps Central Banks in Wait-and-see Mode

US dollar banknotes. (Reuters)
US dollar banknotes. (Reuters)

The dollar edged up against the euro on Wednesday on lingering concerns about the ongoing US-Israeli war with Iran, even after President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire to give Tehran more time to present a unified proposal for ending the conflict. Iran seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, tightening its grip on the strategic waterway, after Trump called off attacks indefinitely with no sign of peace talks restarting.

Markets have been swayed by alternating bouts of optimism that a deal is within reach and fears that the conflict could drag on, causing prolonged disruptions to energy markets.

"It's tough to have a really strong conviction at this point," said Dominic Bunning, head of G10 FX strategy at Nomura. That said, "overall it seems like both sides are more inclined to make progress than to re-escalate."

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was last up 0.06% at 98.44, with the euro down 0.09% at $1.1731. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.09% against the greenback to 159.26 per dollar. Sterling strengthened 0.01% to $1.3507.

CENTRAL BANKS ON HOLD

Markets are pricing in low odds that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year, given the risk that the war could fuel higher inflation.

Fed funds futures traders now see only a 35% chance of one cut by the end of 2026. Traders previously had forecast two cuts, with Kevin Warsh - Trump's nominee to lead the US central bank - seen as more likely to cut rates than Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Warsh said on Tuesday he had made no promises to Trump about cutting rates, seeking to assure senators considering his confirmation that he would act independently of the White House while pursuing broad reforms.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier this month that the Fed should "wait and see" before deciding whether to lower rates amid the war in Iran, noting that the US economy had been "very strong" in January and February.

"Since the war began, comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent make it seem like he recognizes that it might take Warsh some time to cut interest rates," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex.

"And this is what I think we're going to see next week. You've got five G10 central banks that meet and none of them are going to do anything. It's a watch-and-wait" situation, Chandler said.

The Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and Bank of Canada are all scheduled to hold policy meetings next week.


Türkiye Central Bank Holds Rates at 37% as it Eyes Iran War Fallout

Central Bank of Türkiye (official website)
Central Bank of Türkiye (official website)
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Türkiye Central Bank Holds Rates at 37% as it Eyes Iran War Fallout

Central Bank of Türkiye (official website)
Central Bank of Türkiye (official website)

Türkiye's central bank held its key interest rate at 37% as expected on Wednesday, deciding not to hike but warning that fallout from the Iran war could yet change the inflation outlook.

It was the second straight policy meeting at which the bank held steady despite some expectations that it could tighten, suggesting it was preparing to stand pat well into the summer, analysts said.

The central bank also did not adjust its overnight lending and borrowing rates from 40% and 35.5% respectively. Since the war started in late February, it has halted an easing cycle that began in late 2024 and taken other liquidity steps that pushed the lira overnight rate up to the 40% limit - moves that prompted some analysts to predict a 300-point hike this week.

The bank said it is closely monitoring any "potential second-round effects" on inflation, for which "leading indicators suggest a slight increase in the underlying trend in April".

"Amid geopolitical developments and the resulting uncertainties, energy prices remain elevated and exhibit notable volatility," its policy committee added.

In a Reuters poll, 19 of 23 economists predicted no change to borrowing costs, while four forecast a rate hike. The war-related surge in energy prices has rattled import-heavy economies like Türkiye where inflation was 30.87% last month, but where expectations have risen. On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump extended the war ceasefire indefinitely.

The ceasefire allowed the central bank "to refrain from tightening," William Jackson, economist at Capital Economics, said in a note. "So long as energy prices don't spike again, we think the CBRT will opt to leave interest rates on hold for at least a few more months."

Economists generally anticipate that rate cuts may resume in September. The Reuters poll predicted rates would be cut to only 32.75% by year-end. A separate poll found end-2026 consumer price inflation at 27.53%, compared with 25.38% in a previous poll.

In its quarterly inflation report in February - before the war began - the central bank had kept its end-2026 interim inflation target at 16%, while lifting its forecast range to 15-21% from 13-19% previously.

A year ago, the central bank temporarily reversed course and hiked rates in the face of political instability that rattled markets, though it returned to rate cuts by mid-2025.


Oil Prices Rise despite US-Iran Ceasefire Extension

FILE PHOTO: FILE PHOTO: A view shows oil pump jacks outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: FILE PHOTO: A view shows oil pump jacks outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
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Oil Prices Rise despite US-Iran Ceasefire Extension

FILE PHOTO: FILE PHOTO: A view shows oil pump jacks outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: FILE PHOTO: A view shows oil pump jacks outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo

Oil prices edged higher Wednesday while Europe's main stock markets eased on uncertainty surrounding the prospect of resumed Mideast peace talks following an extension to the US-Iran ceasefire.

Asian equities had a mixed trading day as investors wait for clarity but broadly expect that both US President Donald Trump and the authorities in Iran want to end a war that has sent oil and gas prices soaring.

"The ceasefire extension hasn't done much to calm nerves given that worries remain about the impact of the energy squeeze on the global economy," said Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, AFP reported. 

"Shipments from the Middle East are in limbo and a resolution to the conflict remains elusive, and the price of Brent crude, the benchmark, reflects this."

Brent North Sea was once more closing in on $100 a barrel while main US contract, West Texas Intermediate, traded back above $90.

Iranian gunboats attacked at least one container ship in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, maritime agencies said, despite US President Donald Trump announcing he was extending a ceasefire to allow more time for peace talks.

Trump said the US blockade of Iran's ports would continue while Pakistani mediators try to revive dialogue.

Tehran has all but shut the strait in the seven weeks since the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran that plunged the Middle East into war, with higher energy prices threatening economic growth worldwide.

"The US and Iran may be trying to shore up leverage and playing a game of who blinks first," said Christopher Wong, a strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp.

"Whatever the outcome, the suspense in the interim may see risk appetite being curtailed," he said.

Away from the war, investors were keeping tabs on the confirmation hearing by senators of Kevin Warsh, Trump's pick to replace Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May.

Warsh told lawmakers he would not be controlled by the president as he fielded questions on his assets and central bank independence during his first hearing.

Trump has assailed Powell for not cutting interest rates more aggressively, and told CNBC on Tuesday that he would be disappointed if the new chair did not swiftly lower borrowing costs despite rising inflation.

In Britain, official data showed that annual inflation jumped to 3.3 percent in March as the Middle East war sent oil and gas prices surging.