Massive Media Campaign Expresses Opposition to Another War in Lebanon

A billboard in Beirut reads: “So that the past doesn’t repeat itself, Lebanon does not want war.” (X platform)
A billboard in Beirut reads: “So that the past doesn’t repeat itself, Lebanon does not want war.” (X platform)
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Massive Media Campaign Expresses Opposition to Another War in Lebanon

A billboard in Beirut reads: “So that the past doesn’t repeat itself, Lebanon does not want war.” (X platform)
A billboard in Beirut reads: “So that the past doesn’t repeat itself, Lebanon does not want war.” (X platform)

The toned-down speeches of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah did not reassure the Lebanese people that the Gaza war would not spread to their country.

In fact, repeated Iranian statements about the possibility of the spread of the fighting beyond the southern border regions have raised the people’s fears that the war would spread to Lebanon.

Since the eruption of the conflict in Gaza, Hezbollah, Lebanese and Palestinian groups have been engaged in fighting with Israeli troops on the border. The fighting has so far been limited to those regions.

The fear of the spillover of the Gaza war led politicians and civil society groups to launch a massive campaign, under the slogan, “Lebanon does not want war.”

The campaign was first limited to social media, with the participation of politicians, artists, and media figures, but it has now been moved to billboards, especially those located in Beirut.

Billboards read: “So that the past doesn’t repeat itself, Lebanon does not want war.” Short phone text messages were also received by a large number of people, calling for sparing the country another war.

Ghina Al-Khazen, director of an advertising company in the Gulf, and one of the organizers of the project, revealed that it was funded by a group of young Lebanese and businessmen who want political, military and security stability, and who represent “all Lebanese regions.”

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Al-Khazen said: "Yes, the Lebanese prime minister declared that he and his government do not control the decision of war and peace, but the Lebanese people are greater and stronger than the government, and the decision is in their hands.”

She continued: “[This decision] is not and will not be in the hands of the political system that is subject to the policies of parties and armed groups.”

Prior to the campaign, caretaker prime minister Najib Mikati toured a number of countries to urge their help in preventing Lebanon from sliding towards the war.

The country’s opposition forces had sent an appeal to the Arab Summit held in Saudi Arabia, asking Arab leaders “to help Lebanon confront the attempt to drag it into war, in light of its hijacked sovereignty and usurped decision-making.”

“When the state is robbed of the decision to make war and peace, it becomes necessary for the political components... to carry out their duty. Therefore, as opposition representatives, we conveyed a call to the Arab Summit, to say that Lebanese society in general and the opposition representatives refuse to let Lebanon be part of the arenas of the existing conflict. We want the country to be a space for dialogue and diplomacy, which would serve the Palestinian cause,” MP Razi al-Hajj, member of the Strong Republic bloc, told Asharq Al-Awsat.

A few days ago, a number of political activists organized a protest in front of the National Museum in Beirut to demand that Lebanon be protected from war.

Political activist Princess Hayat Arslan participated in the demonstration, stressing in a statement to Asharq Al-Awsat the importance of “raising our voice so that the international community is aware that the majority of the Lebanese do not want war and do not support [Hezbollah] in what it is doing, given that the party represent no more than 15 or 20 percent of the Lebanese people.”



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
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What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.