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What Role is the US Playing to Prevent Conflict in Lebanon from Escalating?

US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein meets with Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati [not pictured] in Beirut, Lebanon November 7, 2023. REUTERS/MOHAMED AZAKIR)
US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein meets with Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati [not pictured] in Beirut, Lebanon November 7, 2023. REUTERS/MOHAMED AZAKIR)
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What Role is the US Playing to Prevent Conflict in Lebanon from Escalating?

US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein meets with Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati [not pictured] in Beirut, Lebanon November 7, 2023. REUTERS/MOHAMED AZAKIR)
US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein meets with Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati [not pictured] in Beirut, Lebanon November 7, 2023. REUTERS/MOHAMED AZAKIR)

The United States is working hard to prevent the conflict in Lebanon from escalating. To achieve this, the Biden administration has sent special envoy Amos Hochstein to the region. His goal is to ease tensions and return to previous engagement rules.

Concerns have grown that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may follow through on threats of a full-scale war against Lebanon, especially with the military operation in Rafah nearing its end.

Hochstein is experienced with the Lebanese situation, having successfully brokered a historic maritime border agreement between Lebanon and Israel in October 2022.

He now aims to negotiate a similar agreement for the land borders to secure long-term stability between Hezbollah and Israel.

Hochstein has built a strong relationship with Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who negotiates with the Americans on behalf of Hezbollah.

The US envoy hopes to replicate his 2022 success, although the ongoing Gaza conflict complicates efforts, as Hezbollah ties the fates of Gaza and Lebanon together.

Former Lebanese Ambassador to Washington, Dr. Riad Tabbara, says Washington’s current aim is to maintain regional stability and avoid a wide-scale war between Israel and its enemies.

Such a conflict could force US military involvement, an undesirable scenario in an election year with public and congressional opposition to war.

“The main American concern is ensuring any solutions protect Israel, which is struggling politically and militarily,” Tabbara told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“A key part of the US stance is to prevent the war from spreading in southern Lebanon,” he added, noting that “this is why the US continues to send envoys like Hochstein to the region.”

Additionally, the US engages in indirect communications with Hezbollah, despite its public policy of not dealing with the group.

According to Dr. Sami Nader, Director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs, the US holds significant influence in Lebanon but isn't the sole player since World War II, with other actors entering the scene.

Nader highlighted US efforts to prevent Lebanon from being engulfed in war, citing reluctance for a third conflict amid ongoing crises in Ukraine and trade tensions with China.

He emphasized that the timing of any conflict is problematic for the Biden administration, facing a contentious election where mistakes could be exploited by opponents.

Despite American aversion to foreign wars and spending abroad, Nader noted Washington’s commitment to supporting regional allies, particularly Israel.

Dr. Hilal Khashan from the American University of Beirut explained that US mediation between Israel and Lebanon is influenced by concerns about how war would impact US President Joe Biden’s reelection prospects, potentially forcing US support for Israel in conflict scenarios.

Khashan pointed out that while France plays a minimal role in the region, the US remains pivotal in shaping Lebanese political outcomes.

The US collaborates with France, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt in a committee seeking to resolve Lebanon’s presidential vacuum, yet ongoing differences among political parties hampers progress towards a consensus candidate.

Moreover, Washington continues to prioritize assistance to the Lebanese army, aiming to counter Hezbollah’s influence, with substantial aid contributions since 2006, including recent support to improve salaries.

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What Role Did the ‘Mossad-Tehran Branch’ Play in Operation Rising Lion?

People gather near a damaged building, in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
People gather near a damaged building, in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
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What Role Did the ‘Mossad-Tehran Branch’ Play in Operation Rising Lion?

People gather near a damaged building, in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
People gather near a damaged building, in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS

Just hours after launching its military operation “Rising Lion” against Iran, Israel revealed an extensive and long-standing intelligence campaign conducted by its spy agency Mossad deep inside Iranian territory, especially in the capital, where it reportedly established a covert branch.

According to an Israeli security source on Friday, Mossad special units carried out a series of covert operations inside Iran in the lead-up to the strikes. These included deploying precision-guided weapons near surface-to-air missile sites, using advanced technology to disrupt Iranian air defenses, and establishing a drone launch base close to Tehran.

The source said Friday’s operation was a joint effort between the Israeli military, Mossad, and the country’s defense industry, built on years of meticulous planning and intelligence-gathering. Israeli media, including Yedioth Ahronoth, reported that Mossad had established the drone base long before the strike, with explosive-laden UAVs later launched toward Iranian missile sites.

The attack reflects Israel’s broader, long-term strategy toward Iran, built on the combined efforts of its military and intelligence services. While Iran has maintained that the strikes were conducted entirely from outside the country, seeking to avoid acknowledging serious internal security breaches, Israel insists that Mossad played a decisive role on the ground.

The agency is credited with assassinations of IRGC and Iranian military figures, data collection on nuclear scientists, and compiling a high-value target list.

An Israeli security source claimed Mossad established a “branch” inside Tehran, planting surveillance devices across dozens of locations and even executing sabotage operations near nuclear facilities and missile launch sites.

While some analysts view these claims as psychological warfare or propaganda, evidence from past operations suggests a degree of credibility. Over the years, Israel has conducted bold, complex missions inside Iran that appear too sophisticated to have originated solely from outside.

Mossad’s activity in Iran dates back years but intensified significantly in the last two. According to Israeli sources, the agency effectively set up a wide-reaching operational base inside Iran, complete with advanced equipment and transport assets.

Mossad has been linked to the assassinations of at least four Iranian nuclear scientists: Masoud Alimohammadi, Majid Shahriari, Darioush Rezaeinejad, and Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan - between 2010 and 2012 - most of them killed using magnetic bombs in central Tehran. In 2020, top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was assassinated in an ambush attributed to a Mossad unit.

The most high-profile operation came in 2018, when Mossad agents reportedly stole Iran’s nuclear archive, including 50,000 documents and 163 CDs, from a Tehran warehouse in a seven-hour raid. According to former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen, who oversaw the mission, the 20-member team (none of whom were Israeli nationals) operated inside Iran for two years before executing the mission undetected.

Though Iranian officials initially dismissed the scale of the operation, they later claimed to have arrested “all the terrorists” who helped Mossad, blaming opposition groups like the MEK. However, Israel insists it relied not on political dissidents, but on individuals disillusioned with the regime, mercenaries, and Western intelligence support.

A retired Mossad officer, known only as Brig. Gen. “A”, told the right-wing Israeli group The Guardians that Iran’s internal repression and isolation have left it vulnerable. He stressed the close cooperation between Mossad, Israeli military intelligence, and the defense industry in preparing for the confrontation with Iran.

Operation “Rising Lion,” launched this week, included direct strikes on neighborhoods housing top IRGC commanders in Tehran. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant described it as a “preemptive strike,” following warnings from US President Donald Trump about an imminent Israeli military operation targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.