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Has Iran Abandoned Hezbollah in its Fight against Israel in Lebanon?

Lebanese citizens who fled on the southern villages amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes Monday, settle at a waterfront promenade in the southern port city of Sidon, Lebanon, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024. (AP)
Lebanese citizens who fled on the southern villages amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes Monday, settle at a waterfront promenade in the southern port city of Sidon, Lebanon, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024. (AP)
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Has Iran Abandoned Hezbollah in its Fight against Israel in Lebanon?

Lebanese citizens who fled on the southern villages amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes Monday, settle at a waterfront promenade in the southern port city of Sidon, Lebanon, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024. (AP)
Lebanese citizens who fled on the southern villages amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes Monday, settle at a waterfront promenade in the southern port city of Sidon, Lebanon, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024. (AP)

Iran appears to have withdrawn itself from the latest confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Israel on Monday intensified its operations against Iran-backed Hezbollah, striking targets in Lebanon’s South and eastern Bekaa Valley.

Iran seems noticeably absent as it arranges its political affairs with the United States and the West, said Lebanese political observers.

They pointed to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s recent remarks that Tehran was making a “tactical retreat” as it backs down from retaliating to Israeli strikes on Iranian interests. It also seems to have abandoned plans for avenging the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July.

Most notably, they highlighted the Iranian foreign minister’s statement on Monday that his country is ready to hold talks on its nuclear program in New York where world leaders are meeting for the United Nations General Assembly.

The political observers appeared divided over whether Iran has really abandoned Hezbollah and was ready to exchange it in return for political gains on the negotiations table, or whether the ideological relationship between Iran and Hezbollah was really unbreakable.

Soaid: Hezbollah is abandoned to its fate

Head of the Saydet el-Jabal Gathering former MP Fares Soaid lamented that the scenario that unfolded in Gaza for nearly year is being replicated in Lebanon.

“The coming days will reveal whether Iran is leading the Resistance Axis against Israel or whether it is fighting Tel Aviv through its allies, while it is really focused on negotiations with the United States,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“Day after day, it is becoming evident that members of Iran’s regional proxies are dying while fighting against Israel in order to improve Tehran’s negotiating position with Washington,” he explained.

“The Lebanese people are sensing that Hezbollah, which used to boast of Iran’s support for it, is now waging the battle alone. It is as if it has been left to its fate, while Iran arranges its papers with the West,” he added.

Geopolitical expert Ziad al-Sayegh said the fact that Iran has not joined the Israel’s fiercest battle against Lebanon, does not at all mean that it has abandoned Hezbollah.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that it was naive to believe that the bond between them could be so easily broken since they share deep ideological ties.

People in Lebanon believe that Iran’s failure to react to the latest dangerous developments in Lebanon, starting with the attack on Hezbollah’s communication devices and killing of senior Radwan unit commanders last week, mean it has abandoned the party and left it to its fate.

Surviving at Hezbollah’s expense

Soaid stressed that the Iranian leadership was trying to “survive this war and perhaps strike a deal at the expense of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq.”

“Unfortunately, this is not the first time that a Lebanese party ties its fate to a foreign party and bets wrong,” he added.

He recalled how the Lebanese National Movement “tied its fate” to Palestinian Fatah movement leader Yasser Arafat in the 1970s.

“Syrian President Hafez al-Assad decided to eliminate Fatah, kicking off the process by assassinating Lebanon’s Kamal Jumblatt and newly elected President Bashir al-Gemayel,” noted Soaid.

Arafat couldn’t protect Jumblatt and no foreign power was able to save Gemayel, he explained.

“Regional forces are using internal forces, not the other way around,” he noted. “The situation today demonstrates that Hezbollah is following the orders of Tehran and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, not the other way around,” he added.

Iran would never have gained so much influence in the region had the West not allowed it to run rampant.

Sayegh said the West “has granted Iran cover for years and the people of the region have played the price of this dirty work. The West won’t get out of this situation unscathed.”

“We have entered the era of eliminating extremism that is formed out of nationalist and religious ideology and Israel and Iran are best examples of this,” he stated.

“The Arab world is demanded to follow the course of the establishment of a Palestinian state. Hezbollah must read the historic and geographic truths through the lense of the Lebanese identity,” he urged.

“It must apply the constitution and respect the state’s sovereignty. Therein lies salvation,” he remarked.

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Israel Wary of Egypt's 'Military Infrastructure' in Sinai: Peace Treaty at Risk?

Egyptian army chief Ahmed Khalifa inspects troops near Israel's border late last year. (Military spokesman)
Egyptian army chief Ahmed Khalifa inspects troops near Israel's border late last year. (Military spokesman)
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Israel Wary of Egypt's 'Military Infrastructure' in Sinai: Peace Treaty at Risk?

Egyptian army chief Ahmed Khalifa inspects troops near Israel's border late last year. (Military spokesman)
Egyptian army chief Ahmed Khalifa inspects troops near Israel's border late last year. (Military spokesman)

Israel has voiced growing concerns over Egypt’s military presence in the Sinai Peninsula, fearing a potential escalation between the two sides amid the ongoing Gaza war.

Israeli media reports said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has asked both Washington and Cairo to dismantle what it describes as a “military infrastructure” established by the Egyptian army in Sinai.

However, an informed Egyptian source and experts cited by Asharq Al-Awsat insisted that Egypt has not violated its peace treaty with Israel. They argued that Cairo’s military movements are a response to Israeli breaches of the agreement.

Israel’s Israel Hayom newspaper, citing a senior Israeli security official, reported that Egypt’s military buildup in Sinai constitutes a “major violation” of the security annex of the peace treaty.

The official said the issue is a top priority for Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, stressing that Israel “will not accept this situation” amid what it views as Egypt’s growing military footprint in the peninsula.

The official added that the issue goes beyond the deployment of Egyptian forces in Sinai exceeding the quotas set under the military annex of the Camp David Accords.

The real concern, he said, lies in Egypt’s continued military buildup in the peninsula, which Israel views as an irreversible step.

Moreover, he stressed that while Israel is not seeking to amend its peace treaty with Egypt or redeploy troops along the border, it believes the current situation requires urgent action to prevent a potential escalation.

Egypt-Israel relations have not seen such tensions since the outbreak of the Gaza war, particularly after Israel violated a ceasefire agreement with Hamas brokered primarily by Egypt. Israeli forces resumed airstrikes on Gaza last month and failed to fulfill their commitments to withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor and Palestinian border crossings.

A senior Egyptian source dismissed Israel’s accusations, telling Asharq Al-Awsat that “these repeated Israeli pretexts ignore the fact that Israeli forces have violated the peace treaty, seizing control of areas where Egypt objects to their presence without the necessary coordination with Cairo.”

Egypt has the right to take all necessary measures to safeguard its national security against any threats, emphasized the source.

“Nevertheless, Cairo remains fully committed to the peace treaty and has no intention of aggression against any party,” it added.

Israeli forces seized control of the Gaza-Egypt border, including the Philadelphi Corridor and the Rafah crossing, in May 2024. Israel has accused Egypt of not doing enough to stop weapons smuggling into Gaza through border tunnels—an allegation Cairo has denied.

Under the terms of the ceasefire agreement with Hamas, which Israel later broke, Israeli forces were supposed to begin withdrawing from the Philadelphi Corridor on March 1, completing the pullout within eight days. However, Israel failed to do so and instead resumed airstrikes on Gaza.

Israel also announced the creation of an administration aimed at facilitating the “voluntary departure” of Gaza residents, a move Cairo strongly rejected and formally condemned.

Egypt has insisted that Palestinians must remain in their homeland and has put forward a reconstruction plan for Gaza and called for the implementation of the two-state solution. The plan was endorsed at an emergency Arab summit three weeks ago.

Media reports have indicated that Egypt responded to Israel’s control of the Gaza border by increasing its military presence near the frontier—an act that some Israeli officials claim violates the peace treaty and threatens Israel’s security.

Former Egyptian intelligence official Gen. Mohammed Rashad told Asharq Al-Awsat that Israel itself violated the peace treaty by seizing the Philadelphi Corridor, controlling border crossings, and blocking aid to Gaza while seeking to forcibly displace Palestinians into Egypt.

“Every Israeli action along Gaza’s border with Egypt constitutes hostile behavior against Egypt’s national security,” said Rashad, who previously headed the Israeli military affairs division in Egypt’s intelligence service.

“Egypt cannot sit idly by in the face of such threats and must prepare for all possible scenarios.”

The Philadelphi Corridor is a strategically sensitive buffer zone, serving as a narrow 14-kilometer passage between Egypt, Israel, and Gaza, stretching from the Mediterranean Sea in the north to the Kerem Shalom crossing in the south.

Military expert General Samir Farag insisted that Egypt has not violated the peace treaty or its security annex in over 40 years, arguing that Israel has repeatedly breached the agreement and is attempting to shift blame onto Cairo.

“Israel is doing this to distract from its internal problems, including public discontent over its ballooning defense budget,” Farag told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“It also wants to deflect attention from Egypt’s reconstruction plan for Gaza and leverage its claims to pressure the United States for more military aid by portraying Egypt as a threat.”

Farag emphasized that Egypt’s actions are solely aimed at protecting its national security, adding: “There is no clause in the peace treaty that prevents a country from defending itself.”

“The so-called ‘military infrastructure’ Israel refers to consists of roads and development projects in Sinai.”

“The US has satellite surveillance over the region—if Egypt had violated the treaty, Washington would have flagged it. Moreover, security coordination between Egypt and Israel continues daily,” he explained.

Egypt and Israel signed their landmark peace treaty on March 25, 1979, committing to resolving disputes peacefully and prohibiting the use or threat of force. The agreement also established military deployment guidelines and a joint security coordination committee.

Meanwhile, US Republican Party member Tom Harb told Asharq Al-Awsat that Washington has received intelligence from multiple sources indicating that Egypt has amassed a significant military force in Sinai.

Israel considers this a breach of the peace treaty, which designates Sinai as a demilitarized zone to prevent surprises like the 1973 war, Harb said.

While the US fully supports Israel’s concerns, it also wants to prevent further escalation, as that would destabilize the region, he added.

Ultimately, Egypt must clarify whether its troop movements are aimed at threatening Israel or preventing Palestinians from crossing into Egyptian territory, he stated.