Report: Israel Faces Possible Shortage of Interceptor Missiles

An Arrow II missile interceptor is displayed in front of journalists at an Israeli air defense command in the Palmahim military base south of Tel Aviv May 12, 2011. (Reuters)
An Arrow II missile interceptor is displayed in front of journalists at an Israeli air defense command in the Palmahim military base south of Tel Aviv May 12, 2011. (Reuters)
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Report: Israel Faces Possible Shortage of Interceptor Missiles

An Arrow II missile interceptor is displayed in front of journalists at an Israeli air defense command in the Palmahim military base south of Tel Aviv May 12, 2011. (Reuters)
An Arrow II missile interceptor is displayed in front of journalists at an Israeli air defense command in the Palmahim military base south of Tel Aviv May 12, 2011. (Reuters)

Israel is encountering a potential shortage of rocket and missile interceptors in its air defenses, reports revealed on Tuesday a day after the country’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant admitted Israel needs US support in air armament.

The Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper said that during the security review presented to Israeli ministers Monday, Gallant was asked about armaments.

He replied that there was a large gap when he entered the Defense Ministry, which he instructed to be filled before the start of the war.

Gallant said, “We are still dependent in air armaments and American planes,” but he clarified that “we are working with all our might to promote blue-white production and the development of independence” on the issue of armaments.

Gallant’s comments were confirmed by the London-based Financial Times, which on Tuesday said that Israel faces a severe shortage of interceptor missiles, detailing how the US is rushing to help close the gaps.

According to the report, the Pentagon on Sunday announced the deployment of the THAAD system that will arrive in Israel, in preparation for the expected attack in Iran, which could lead to further regional escalation.

“Israel’s munitions issue is serious,” Dana Stroll, a former senior official at the US Department of Defense, responsible for the Middle East, explained to the newspaper.

“If Iran responds to an Israel attack [with a massive air strike campaign], and Hezbollah joins in too, Israel air defenses will be stretched,” she said, adding that US stockpiles are not limitless. “The US can’t continue supplying Ukraine and Israel at the same pace. We are reaching a tipping point,” she added.

Replenishing stocks

Boaz Levy, chief executive of Israel Aerospace Industries, a state-owned company which makes the Arrow interceptors used to shoot down ballistic missiles, told the newspaper he is running triple shifts to keep production lines running.

“Some of our lines are working 24 hours, seven days a week. Our goal is to meet all our obligations,” Levy said, adding that the time required to produce interceptor missiles is “not a matter of days”.

While Israel does not disclose the size of its stockpiles, he added: “It is no secret that we need to replenish stocks.”

The British newspaper explained that until this week, Israel's three-tiered air defense systems have succeeded in intercepting most of the UAVs and missiles fired by Iran and its proxies at the country.

The Iron Dome system intercepted short-range rockets and UAVs fired by Hamas from Gaza, while the David Slingshot intercepted heavier rockets fired from Lebanon, and the Arrow system stopped ballistic missiles from Iran.

During the Iranian attack in April, according to the Israeli army, a 99% interception rate was achieved against the barrage, which included 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles.

Israel reportedly had less success in repelling the second barrage, that took place at the beginning of the month, which included more from 180 ballistic missiles.

Intelligence sources told the newspaper that nearly 30 missiles hit the Nevatim Airbase in southern Israel near Be'er Sheva.

200 missiles

The FT report stirred heated debate in Israel. Brigadier General Zvika Chaimovitz, former commander of the air defense system, told Ynet on Tuesday: “The THAAD system is a significant force component and I don't want to compare it with the Arrow system, but in the end, you add dozens more interceptors.”

“It is a significant force that joins our forces, and we have seen scenarios of 200 missiles. It is assumed that if the conflict with Iran continues, we are expected to see more here.”

“The US is a great power. When you look at capabilities, it's not a numbers game. In the end it's a combination of defense and attack,” he remarked.

Yedioth Ahronoth commentator Ron Ben Yishai pointed out in a recent piece that the agreement being formed with the US to place THAAD in Israel is as much a result of American coercion as it is of Israeli necessity.

“The Israeli army’s need is clear: It needs the addition of American interceptor missiles and launchers to deal with the hundreds of missiles that the Iranians may launch, if and when Israel responds to the attack against it on October 1,” he said.

In this case, the quantities and numbers speak for themselves, noted Ben Yishai. “The more missiles are launched in one or two small volleys in order to saturate the defense systems - the more launchers, interceptor missiles and radars are needed,” he continued.

Yair Katz, the head of the workers union at Israel Aircraft Industries, dismissed the claims, stating that “The Financial Times headline is wrong. Israel has enough interceptors to maintain a war on multiple fronts.”



Qaani’s Uncertain Fate: A New Angle in the Shadow War

Ismail Qaani whispers in the ear of IRGC Commander Hossein Salami (IRNA)
Ismail Qaani whispers in the ear of IRGC Commander Hossein Salami (IRNA)
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Qaani’s Uncertain Fate: A New Angle in the Shadow War

Ismail Qaani whispers in the ear of IRGC Commander Hossein Salami (IRNA)
Ismail Qaani whispers in the ear of IRGC Commander Hossein Salami (IRNA)

There has been recently a surge of speculation about Ismail Qaani, the commander of Iran’s Quds Force, with reports presenting conflicting information.

Some leaks suggest Qaani may have been injured in an Israeli attack abroad or is being investigated for alleged collaboration with Israel. Iranian officials have provided little information, leaving his whereabouts uncertain and raising questions about his well-being.

Timeline of Events

Qaani was last seen on September 29 at the Lebanese Hezbollah office in Tehran, where he was offering condolences after the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s Secretary-General in Beirut’s southern suburbs.

Five days later, during a eulogy for Nasrallah, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei spoke in Tehran, notably without Qaani and other leaders present.

On October 6, Tasnim news agency published photos of Khamenei presenting an award to Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the Aerospace Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, again without Qaani in attendance.

On October 9, Iran hinted at Qaani’s fate, stating that Khamenei would soon honor him with the same award. Tasnim reported that Qaani is in “good health.”

By October 10, numerous reports indicated that Qaani might be under investigation, deepening the confusion surrounding his situation.

Speculation Grows Around Qaani’s Status

Since Qaani’s last public appearance, speculation about his fate has intensified, with three key theories emerging by October 10.

The first theory arose immediately after Nasrallah’s assassination, claiming Qaani was either injured or killed. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) quickly denied these claims.

On October 5, Israel struck a building in the Beirut suburbs, alleging it was targeting Hashem Safieddine, Hezbollah's Executive Council chief. This led to speculation that Qaani was there and may have been harmed.

The IRGC took three days to deny these reports, with Deputy Commander Eiraj Masjedi confirming that Qaani was unharmed.

On October 10, military expert Babak Taghvaei posted on X (formerly Twitter) that Qaani was under investigation, with some reports claiming he suffered a heart attack “due to torture.”

In response, IRGC-affiliated news agencies Tasnim and Fars denied Qaani’s arrest, with Tasnim dismissing a report from “10 sources” and stating, “We can confidently say that 20 informed sources claim the ten sources are completely false.”

Confusion Surrounds Qaani's Status Amid Competing Narratives

Verifying leaks about Qaani’s status is challenging due to the IRGC’s complex media network, which shapes public opinion.

One theory suggests Tehran is shocked by the rapid loss of Hassan Nasrallah and Hezbollah’s leadership, leading them to believe significant intelligence breaches have occurred. As a result, they may be withholding information about Qaani’s location to protect him.

However, skepticism about Iran’s credibility has given rise to another theory: infighting within the IRGC may lead some factions to undermine Qaani’s image and distance themselves from him.

Doubts are also growing about Qaani’s ability to fill the void left by Qassem Soleimani, especially as tensions with Israel escalate and the conflict shifts to targeting Iranian-affiliated groups.

Another theory suggests that creating public speculation about Qaani’s fate could prompt Iranians to reveal his true status and location, particularly since he is reportedly on an Israeli target list.

Despite the uncertainty, Qaani’s fate won’t remain a secret for long. Iran may soon introduce new theories, especially if IRGC statements suggest that Khamenei will award Qaani the “Order of Fateh.”