Inside Israel’s Settler State and its Hidden Strategy

Israeli settlers use bulldozers to pave a road for a new settlement on the outskirts of the occupied West Bank village of Al-Mughayyir, north of Ramallah, on August 24, 2025. (Photo by Zain JAAFAR / AFP)
Israeli settlers use bulldozers to pave a road for a new settlement on the outskirts of the occupied West Bank village of Al-Mughayyir, north of Ramallah, on August 24, 2025. (Photo by Zain JAAFAR / AFP)
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Inside Israel’s Settler State and its Hidden Strategy

Israeli settlers use bulldozers to pave a road for a new settlement on the outskirts of the occupied West Bank village of Al-Mughayyir, north of Ramallah, on August 24, 2025. (Photo by Zain JAAFAR / AFP)
Israeli settlers use bulldozers to pave a road for a new settlement on the outskirts of the occupied West Bank village of Al-Mughayyir, north of Ramallah, on August 24, 2025. (Photo by Zain JAAFAR / AFP)

For decades, settler attacks in the West Bank were largely concentrated in “Area C,” under full Israeli control. But since the Hamas-led Oct. 7 assault on Israel, violence has spread deeper, reaching “Area B” and reshaping life across the territory.

The assaults, carried out day and night, have coincided with a surge in settlement activity. There are now 243 new settlement outposts that did not exist before the 1993 Oslo accords, and 129 additional “shepherding outposts” established since October 7, 2023, alone.

Officially, Israeli settlements cover 3.6% of the West Bank. But their de facto footprint — including roads, security zones and areas of influence — extends to nearly 10%, according to Palestinian monitoring groups.

Nature reserves are also part of the land Israel has moved to place under its control as part of a sovereignty plan driven by far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.

In what analysts say could be the most decisive step yet toward blocking the creation of a Palestinian state, Smotrich in late August 2025 secured final approval for the long-stalled “E1” project.

The plan, frozen for decades due to international pressure, received a green light from the Civil Administration’s Supreme Planning Council, an arm of Israel’s Defense Ministry.

A Village Turned Into a Cage

In Sinjil, a town of 9,000 people about 21 km north of Ramallah, residents say daily life has come to resemble imprisonment. Fences, gates, settlements and military outposts ring the community, leaving villagers hemmed in and fearful.

The scars of a July 11 attack are still visible. On that day, settlers killed two young Palestinian men in one of the deadliest assaults since the Oct. 7 attack on Israel.

The victims were not from Sinjil but from the nearby town of al-Mazra’a al-Sharqiya. They had come to help defend their neighbors when hundreds of settlers stormed the village.

“It was a wide-scale assault,” said Mohammad Alwan, coordinator of the Popular Committee Against Settlements. “More than 300 settlers gathered in the mountains and attacked the village. It was a tough battle. Neighbors rushed to defend each other.”

Two young men went missing during the clashes. Hours later, villagers found 22-year-old Saif Musallat dead in a valley. “He had just come from America to visit Palestine ...

They hit him until he died,” Alwan said, his voice breaking. “The bruises were all over his body.”

The second victim, Mohammad Shalabi, was shot dead. “Criminals and savages were unleashed on us,” Alwan added.

Alwan, who has lived through decades of settler attacks, said the brutality has escalated sharply since Oct. 7. “After October they built fences, put up gates and seized the rest of the land - 8,000 out of 14,000 dunams. Look how they turned the village into a cage.”

Gates, Closures and Economic Strain

Beyond the human toll, villagers describe economic suffocation. Mechanic Gharib Khalil’s shop lies just behind a yellow gate sealing the village entrance. “Since they put the gate up a year ago, business collapsed. People can’t reach me anymore,” he said.

Nearby, Abed al-Nasser Alwan stood by his broken-down truck trapped on the other side of the gate. “It looks open, but cameras are everywhere. If you move it, they shoot you or arrest you. We’re stuck.”

Palestinian officials say these restrictions are part of a deliberate policy. The Palestinian Colonization and Wall Resistance Commission counts 898 military checkpoints and gates across the West Bank, including 146 added since Oct. 7, 2023.

“These barriers reflect Israel’s closure policy since 1967,” said Amir Dawood, the commission’s publishing director. “They are designed to create a new geographic reality - one of exclusion and surveillance.”

Boundaries Drawn with Fire

The violence has spread to neighboring Kafr Malik, where settlers killed four men in July. Posters of the victims cover village walls, alongside slogans of defiance. Settlements loom from the hilltops above, expanding since Oct. 7.

“From there, they attack the village,” said activist Montaser al-Maliki. “Before October, attacks happened, but not like this. Now they are larger, more organized, and more violent.”

Almost daily, footage circulates of settlers blocking roads or pelting Palestinian cars with stones.

The Vanishing Oslo Map

Maps of the West Bank illustrate how Oslo’s partition into Areas A, B and C has eroded.

Area A, once under full Palestinian control, has become a patchwork of isolated enclaves.

“They’ve built a state within a state,” said Issa Zboun, head of GIS at the Applied Research Institute in Jerusalem. “Instead of giving Palestinians their promised state, they took the land and turned it into a settlers’ state.”

Figures compiled by Palestinian groups show the transformation:

1967: 69 settlements, 98,000 settlers, covering 0.2% of the West Bank.

1993 (Oslo Accords): 172 settlements, 248,000 settlers, covering 1.2%.

2025: 200 official settlements, 243 outposts — including 129 built after Oct. 7 — housing more than 940,000 settlers.

While settlements officially cover 3.6% of the West Bank, their effective footprint — including security zones, bypass roads and areas of influence — reaches nearly 10%.

Zboun said Israel once needed laws to seize land for settlements. “Today they do it without orders, without announcements, without laws,” he said.

In his office, Zboun displayed maps showing how every major Palestinian city is surrounded by settlements and bypass roads. “They turned Area A into isolated islands,” he said. “They’ve built something larger than the Palestinian state Oslo promised.”

For villagers like those in Sinjil and Kafr Malik, the map is redrawn not with ink but with blood. Boundaries, they say, are now “drawn with fire.”

Restricted Zones for the Palestinian Authority

Palestinian security forces are formally allowed to access parts of Areas B and C of the West Bank only with Israeli coordination. Yet even when entry is possible, analysts and residents say it is unthinkable for Palestinian officers to confront armed settlers or the Israeli army directly.

Israel’s military is often present during settler raids, ostensibly to keep order, but Palestinians say soldiers routinely shield settlers rather than restrain them. Many Palestinians have been killed during these attacks, with no record of Israeli law enforcement prosecuting settlers beyond brief detentions.

US Pressure Eased Under Trump

Since the start of the occupation in 1967, no Israeli settler has been jailed for killing Palestinians in West Bank attacks, despite periodic US pressure. The Biden administration sought to curb settler violence by imposing sanctions on settler leaders and their political backers. But President Donald Trump revoked those sanctions on his first day in office, a move that emboldened settler leaders and the Israeli defense minister to scrap a policy allowing administrative detention of violent settlers.

Trump’s arrival in power marked a turning point for both Israel’s right-wing leaders and the settler movement, who viewed his presidency as a rare chance to entrench Israeli sovereignty across the West Bank.

The period after Trump’s election saw what Palestinians describe as “unprecedented terror.” Settler raids became more frequent, larger, and more violent.

According to The Palestinian Colonization and Wall Resistance Commission, Israel carried out 11,280 attacks in the first half of 2025, of which 2,154 were by settler militias, killing six Palestinians.

The Trump administration remained silent even after high-profile killings, including that of Musallat.

Only after Musallat’s family launched legal action and US media spotlighted the case did US ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, call for accountability.

This was a criminal and terrorist act, Huckabee said, before visiting the nearby Christian town of Taybeh, where settlers had recently torched an old cemetery.

Despite his words - calling the attacks “absolute terrorism” and the desecration of holy sites a “crime against humanity” - no arrests were made, and settlers continued their assaults, including fresh raids on Taybeh.

The Desert Raids

Settler attacks have also spread to remote desert communities near Bethlehem, in what locals say is a campaign of intimidation.

In the village of al-Minya, council head Zayed Kawazba pointed to burned-out cars as evidence of recent raids. “They can come at any time,” he said. “Wherever they go, destruction follows.”

Nearby Kisan and the desert hamlet of Deir al-Ahmar have also faced near-daily violence. Residents describe settlers beating villagers, burning homes, killing livestock and then accusing Palestinians of theft.

“Before Oct. 7, the attacks were limited, but afterwards the orders came,” said Adnan Abayat of Deir al-Ahmar, showing a scar from a settler beating. “Now they are relentless. People can’t defend themselves, many have already left.”

A Secret Plan in Plain Sight

Palestinians and rights groups say these raids are not random but part of a broader Israeli strategy led by Smotrich, who also holds sweeping powers over the West Bank’s Civil Administration.

Since being appointed in 2022, Smotrich has overseen what critics call the most dramatic transformation of West Bank governance since 1967. By transferring powers once reserved for the Israeli military to civilian officials loyal to him, Smotrich has blurred the line between military occupation and outright annexation.

Though Israel denies officially annexing the West Bank, Smotrich has openly declared his aim of blocking any Palestinian state and entrenching Jewish settlement. A leaked recording captured him calling the process “a dramatic shift that changes the DNA of the system.”

In August 2025, Smotrich secured final approval for the long-stalled E1 settlement plan, linking Jerusalem to the vast Maale Adumim bloc. The project, frozen for decades under international pressure, will effectively bisect the West Bank, severing north from south and crippling the territorial viability of a Palestinian state.

“This is historic,” Smotrich said. “The Palestinian state has been erased from the table — not with slogans but with deeds. Every settlement, every house, every neighborhood is another nail in the coffin of that dangerous idea.”

Israeli rights group B’Tselem warned that the move cements a system of apartheid by entrenching “a bi-national state of separation.”

The E1 approval followed a July 23 Knesset vote endorsing annexation of the West Bank - condemned by the Palestinian Authority and Hamas alike. Netanyahu framed the decision as “a response to Western recognition plans for Palestine” and vowed to accelerate settlement expansion.

Infrastructure work on E1 could begin within months, with housing construction starting as early as next year, Israeli officials said.

B’Tselem argues that Israel has already created a dual system of governance in the occupied West Bank, with separate legal regimes for settlers and Palestinians, amounting to apartheid.

Smotrich has made little effort to disguise his intentions. His 2017 manifesto openly called for dismantling the Palestinian Authority, preventing statehood, and forcing Palestinians to choose between emigration, second-class citizenship, or resistance.

In two years of the current government, observers say Smotrich has delivered a historic shift, consolidating Israeli civilian rule over occupied land and accelerating settlement expansion at a pace unseen in decades.

As settlers push deeper into Palestinian villages and deserts, residents say they are left with only three choices: flee, submit, or resist.

“Their plan is to erase us,” said Abayat. “They beat us, burn our homes, kill our sheep and the world says nothing. We have nothing left but survival.”



Israel’s Elections: Four Possible Scenarios

A partially-torn billboard for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party is displayed in southern Tel Aviv on October 20, 2026. (AFP)
A partially-torn billboard for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party is displayed in southern Tel Aviv on October 20, 2026. (AFP)
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Israel’s Elections: Four Possible Scenarios

A partially-torn billboard for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party is displayed in southern Tel Aviv on October 20, 2026. (AFP)
A partially-torn billboard for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party is displayed in southern Tel Aviv on October 20, 2026. (AFP)

Israel goes to the polls on October 27 with results forecast to be close, meaning that the next government will be determined by whoever can cobble together a coalition in a fragmented political landscape.

Israel votes through proportional representation based on the nationwide vote and it is highly unlikely that any single party would come even close to the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat parliament, or Knesset.

Here are four possible scenarios:

Coalition

Immediately after the election, the parties will begin negotiations to try to reach the 61-seat threshold.

After the official announcement of the results, President Isaac Herzog will consult with party representatives and name a candidate who has the chance to form a government -- not necessarily the party with the most seats, but the one deemed best positioned to secure enough seats in parliament.

The negotiations can be arduous and lengthy, with parties insisting on parochial interests, and can produce unstable governments.

Following the previous election in November 2022, it took Benjamin Netanyahu 58 days to form his government.

People walk past a Likud party campaign billboard featuring Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu alongside opposition party leaders and bearing the Hebrew slogan "Right or Palestine," ahead of Israel's general election, in Beni Brak, Israel, Sunday, Oct. 18, 2026. (AP)

Polls show that Netanyahu's right-wing and far-right coalition and the opposition bloc, whose most prominent figure is former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, are neck and neck, with approximately 50 to 52 seats each.

The two sides have been nearly even in polls for weeks, foreshadowing a mathematical puzzle that both sides will have to solve to find the 10 or so seats needed for a coalition.

Israeli political history is full of twists and turns, with defections and other unexpected shifts in alliances.

Israel also has two new right-wing parties that are seen as scratching the threshold of entering parliament, where they could throw their decisive support to one of the two blocs.

Minority government

If no bloc manages to secure 61 seats, a candidate could attempt to govern without a majority but rather through support on an ad hoc basis by other lawmakers.

In this scenario, lawmakers from Israel's Arab minority -- who make up 20 percent of the population and generally identify as Palestinians -- could play a critical role. Polls show that two Arab-Israeli lists, the Joint List and Raam, could win 12 to 14 seats in total.

Raam, led by Mansour Abbas, a kingmaker in the past, has stated its willingness to work with Eisenkot's bloc, and the Joint List has offered to provide a "safety net" for any coalition that ousts Netanyahu from power.

But the leading figures in the opposition bloc are reluctant to publicly acknowledge such a possibility, due to the hostility of a large segment of the Jewish electorate towards any form of alliance with Israeli Arabs.

This has not prevented Netanyahu from focusing his campaign on the possibility of Eisenkot working with Arab parties, campaigning on the slogan, "Either the right wing or Palestine."

Gadi Eisenkot, former Israeli military chief of staff and leader of the centrist Yashar "Straight" party delivers a statement ahead of Israel's general election near Israel-Gaza border, southern Israel, Thursday, Oct. 15, 2026. (AP)

National unity government

Considering Israel's extreme polarization, a national unity government would appear fanciful, but it could theoretically create a less extreme government.

Israeli commentators have often mused on the possibility of a national unity government in which Netanyahu would jettison his provocative far-right allies as well as ultra-Orthodox parties and team up with Eisenkot, who shares Netanyahu's views on many security issues.

The grand coalition would also exclude Arab parties.

A poll published on October 16 found that 55 percent of Israelis would prefer a national unity government over new elections if the vote did not produce a clear majority.

This scenario has a recent precedent. In 2020, Netanyahu and Benny Gantz, like Eisenkot a retired general appealing to the center, reached a power-sharing agreement after three elections in less than a year, which stipulated a rotation of the prime ministership.

But the partnership fell apart after a year, triggering a new election. According to media reports, Herzog is working behind the scenes to bring Netanyahu and Eisenkot together to repeat the experiment should a deadlock occur after October 27.

However, the scenario would face strong opposition from both sides, particularly from the opposition bloc, which is treating the election as a referendum against Netanyahu and has questioned his character.

Deadlock and new elections

If no candidate manages to form a government, Israel will have to return to the polls.

The country held four elections between April 2019 and March 2021 due to the inability of politicians to forge a lasting coalition.

The candidate designated by the president will, in principle, have 28 days to form a coalition, with a possible 14-day extension, although there are other procedural ways to prevent an immediate calling of new elections.


Iran Prolongs Talks in Stalemate to Influence US Midterms, Officials Say

An Iranian woman walks past a mural of late Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on a street in Tehran, Iran, 14 October 2026, amid the ongoing conflict between Iran and the United States. (EPA)
An Iranian woman walks past a mural of late Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on a street in Tehran, Iran, 14 October 2026, amid the ongoing conflict between Iran and the United States. (EPA)
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Iran Prolongs Talks in Stalemate to Influence US Midterms, Officials Say

An Iranian woman walks past a mural of late Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on a street in Tehran, Iran, 14 October 2026, amid the ongoing conflict between Iran and the United States. (EPA)
An Iranian woman walks past a mural of late Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on a street in Tehran, Iran, 14 October 2026, amid the ongoing conflict between Iran and the United States. (EPA)

Iran has deliberately prolonged talks with the US to try to weaken Donald Trump politically ahead of November's US midterm elections, senior officials say, while fears of renewed military action and deep distrust of Washington have reinforced Tehran's reluctance to strike a quick deal to end the war.

Three senior Iranian officials and an Iranian insider, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said Tehran was convinced the US president was ready to resort to renewed attacks to try to break the stalemate in the eight-month-old war.

"Iran is preparing for renewed Israeli and US attacks, not for a deal with America to end the war," one of the officials said. "The clerical establishment is determined not to give Trump a political victory."

Tehran analyst Saeed Leylaz said that, by prolonging the talks, "Iran is influencing the US election without taking any unlawful action".

IRAN CAN EXPLOIT TRUMP'S POLITICAL PROBLEMS

The war, which began in February when the US and its ally Israel launched strikes on Iran, has helped drive Trump’s approval rating to a record low as polls suggest that Americans worried about high gasoline prices will punish his Republican Party in the November 3 congressional elections.

Trump has repeatedly said he expects oil prices to drop after the ‌elections, but has ‌not offered a detailed plan to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital ‌global ⁠energy shipping route effectively ⁠closed by Iran since the war began.

Iranian attacks both threatened and real have kept ship traffic through the strait to a trickle, while a US maritime blockade and trade sanctions have cut off Iran's oil export revenues and exacerbated growing domestic economic woes.

With Tehran refusing to make concessions it believes could benefit Trump politically, there is little chance of a breakthrough before the elections, the officials said.

Under pressure from Israel, Washington wants Iran’s decades-long nuclear program - which Iran says is purely peaceful and Western powers allege has military dimensions - on the table from the outset.

For its part, Tehran insists that its conditions under a "seven-day plan" must be met before nuclear negotiations begin. It offers no prospect of giving up the leverage over the Strait of Hormuz that the conflict prompted it to ⁠seize.

Iran's Foreign Ministry and the US White House did not respond to Reuters requests for comment.

An Iranian couple walks near an anti-Israel billboard featuring Israeli Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu and a sentence reading in Persian “Day by day isolated” at the Enghelab square in Tehran, Iran, 12 October 2026. (EPA)

IRAN CANNOT ‌TRUST WASHINGTON, OFFICIALS SAY

Iran’s proposal, conveyed through Qatari mediators, offered to reopen the strait within seven ‌days, albeit under Iranian control, provided that Washington lifted its maritime blockade, eased restrictions on Iranian oil exports, released frozen assets and ended hostilities on all fronts.

Iranian Foreign ‌Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday that the offer remained on the table, with messages being exchanged through mediators.

Tehran's view that Washington cannot be ‌trusted to commit to diplomacy stems from the attacks on Iran that have derailed previous negotiations, one Iranian official said.

In June 2025, an Israeli attack wrecked plans for a sixth round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Oman. And last February, the US and Israel launched their war just after another round of talks ended, with further technical discussions scheduled.

Maintaining a state somewhere between war and peace through the US midterms allows Iran to sustain pressure on Washington while reiterating its commitment to diplomacy.

Trump has ‌said the US will not bomb Iran again before November 3. However, the officials said Tehran continues to expect that bombing will resume, sooner or later.

Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the ⁠Middle East Institute in Washington, said the ⁠clerical establishment clearly wanted to hurt Trump politically.

"But the fundamental issue is that Tehran believes that Trump is interested in regime change ... and following Israeli Prime Minister (Benjamin) Netanyahu’s policy of seeking to bring down Iran’s ruling establishment," he said.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth discussed Iran with Netanyahu on Monday, three Israeli officials said, in an unannounced visit to Israel a week before a parliamentary election in which Netanyahu's position is at risk.

US President Donald Trump looks on during a campaign rally at the Heartland Credit Union Arena in Park City, Kansas, a suburb of Wichita, on October 19, 2026. (AFP)

RETURN TO PRE-WAR STATUS IMPOSSIBLE FOR IRAN, SAYS ANALYST

Iran’s strategy of keeping negotiations alive without rushing towards agreement comes at a cost.

Prolonged uncertainty is weighing on Iran’s already crippled economy and wearing down public patience. Thousands were killed at the turn of the year when the security forces crushed spiraling anti-government protests.

Annual inflation hit 73.6% in September, according to the Statistical Centre of Iran, and the rial currency has fallen nearly 35% against the dollar since Washington reapplied its naval blockade in July.

Iran’s seaborne crude exports fell to zero in the second week of September from a 14-day average of 230,000 barrels per day at the start of the month, and remained there as of October 5, according to energy intelligence platform Vortexa.

But the leadership's distrust of Washington extends beyond the current conflict to existential concerns. Iran believes the US has repeatedly broken agreements even when Tehran honored its commitments, Leylaz said, leaving little confidence that any comprehensive deal would endure.

“Reaching a sustainable deal with the US, even after the Trump administration, is no longer possible because of the deepened distrust,” Leylaz said. "Nothing will go back to the pre-war status quo."


Can Trump’s Endorsement Boost Netanyahu’s Election Chances?

An ultra-Orthodox Jewish man walks past an electoral banner for the Reservist party's list led by Yoaz Hendel (R) and Yaron Zelekha (L) in Bnei Barak near Tel Aviv on October 18, 2026. (Photo by Ilia YEFIMOVICH / AFP)
An ultra-Orthodox Jewish man walks past an electoral banner for the Reservist party's list led by Yoaz Hendel (R) and Yaron Zelekha (L) in Bnei Barak near Tel Aviv on October 18, 2026. (Photo by Ilia YEFIMOVICH / AFP)
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Can Trump’s Endorsement Boost Netanyahu’s Election Chances?

An ultra-Orthodox Jewish man walks past an electoral banner for the Reservist party's list led by Yoaz Hendel (R) and Yaron Zelekha (L) in Bnei Barak near Tel Aviv on October 18, 2026. (Photo by Ilia YEFIMOVICH / AFP)
An ultra-Orthodox Jewish man walks past an electoral banner for the Reservist party's list led by Yoaz Hendel (R) and Yaron Zelekha (L) in Bnei Barak near Tel Aviv on October 18, 2026. (Photo by Ilia YEFIMOVICH / AFP)

US President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of the October 27 election has given the ruling right-wing camp a boost. But whether it can reverse Netanyahu’s declining electoral fortunes remains uncertain.

Netanyahu and his Republican allies had lobbied hard to secure Trump’s backing. According to Israel’s Channel 12 and Channel 13, White House officials struggled with the decision, holding numerous meetings with figures from Israel’s governing coalition and opposition and requesting in-depth opinion polls.

Aware that Trump dislikes backing losers and prefers strong leaders, Netanyahu assembled a team to convince Washington that his electoral prospects had improved.

Meanwhile, the opposition’s “change camp” sought to discourage US interference. Former Prime Minister Yair Lapid met officials from both American parties, promising that an alternative Israeli government would maintain closer ties with the Trump administration and cooperate more fully in implementing his peace plan.

But Washington’s proposal for a unity government bringing together Netanyahu and his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, exposed divisions and hesitation within the opposition. Its apparent reluctance to cooperate reportedly frustrated Trump and contributed to his decision to endorse Netanyahu.

(FILES) US President Donald Trump greets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as he arrives at the West Wing of the White House in Washington, DC on September 29, 2025. (Photo by Jim WATSON / AFP)

Can Trump revive Netanyahu’s fortunes?

The president’s backing is likely to resonate primarily with right-wing voters rather than the Israeli electorate as a whole, reflecting sharply divided attitudes toward him.

In 2024, Trump enjoyed support from 60% to 72% of Israelis. By early 2025, 61% considered him the preferred US president for advancing Israel’s interests, including 96% of right-wing respondents, 52% of centrists, 30% of left-wing voters and 32% of Arab citizens.

Confidence in Trump rose to 75% in March 2026 before plunging to 26% that summer following Washington’s agreement with Tehran. Surveys also found that 81% of left-wing respondents, 73% of centrists and 65% of right-wing voters believed Israel’s security was not a priority for him.

Israeli media have frequently greeted Trump’s shifting positions with skepticism and even ridicule.

His clashes with Netanyahu have particularly unsettled the right. In 2025, when the Israeli leader opposed Washington’s proposed negotiations with Iran, Israeli outlets reported that Trump had demanded he fall into line with the American approach, telling him that he and his government were now part of Trump’s plan, not the other way around.

In June 2026, Axios and CNN reported details of a heated telephone conversation in which Trump allegedly shouted at Netanyahu over strikes on Beirut and attempts to obstruct US-Iran negotiations. According to those accounts, the American president called him completely “crazy,” claimed to have kept him out of prison and accused his policies of turning public opinion against Israel.

With Likud holding 36 seats in the Knesset but polling at just 18 to 21, Netanyahu hopes Trump’s intervention will persuade disillusioned right-wing supporters to return to the party.

Its impact may be limited, however, among voters who view Trump unfavorably, including some on the right and a larger share of the political center.

Much of the Israeli media, described in the analysis as aligned with the opposition’s “change camp” and the country’s entrenched establishment, has played down the announcement. Some commentators have even called it a bad omen, pointing to Trump’s previous support for Hungary’s Viktor Orban and Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, both of whom subsequently lost elections.

What might Netanyahu offer in return?

Israeli political analysts have advanced several theories about what Trump hopes to gain from supporting the prime minister.

One is that Netanyahu pledged to strike Iran independently, with US forces providing assistance from a distance rather than participating directly, as they did in June.

Trump appeared to reinforce that interpretation by describing Netanyahu as the only Israeli prime minister both willing and able to attack Iran. He added that while he could order US strikes himself, he had no interest in doing so.

Another explanation centers on Washington’s interest in a post-election unity government involving Netanyahu and Eisenkot, who would share the premiership.

Under this scenario, Trump wants a strong, predominantly right-wing Israeli government reflecting the country’s political majority and capable of making far-reaching decisions to implement his peace plan.

The endorsement could therefore give Netanyahu an opportunity to stage an “October surprise,” borrowing a term from US politics for a late campaign development capable of dramatically reshaping electoral prospects.

But the Israeli leader must still prove that he can turn Trump’s support into votes.

Netanyahu moved quickly to capitalize on the announcement Sunday evening, posting a video on Telegram urging Israelis to pay close attention to the president’s remarks.

Fifteen minutes later, he released another recording describing Trump’s endorsement as unconditional and emphasizing their partnership.

Netanyahu credited their cooperation with major achievements against Iran and its regional allies, claiming they had dealt crushing blows to both and removed the immediate threat of nuclear bombs.

He also portrayed Trump as determined to work alongside him to complete the task of eliminating the Iranian threat within the next two years, or possibly sooner.

Vehicles drive past an election billboard featuring images of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (R) and Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot (L) in Ramat Gan near Tel Aviv, Israel, 18 October 2026. EPA/ABIR SULTAN

Opposition caught off guard

Opposition leaders were stunned by the announcement.

An associate of Lapid disclosed that people close to Trump had indicated earlier Sunday that the president did not intend to interfere in Israel’s election.

The official suggested that the endorsement might have been compensation for Netanyahu after Trump refused to launch another attack on Iran.

Eisenkot’s allies were divided over whether to ignore the development to preserve good relations with Washington or publicly suggest that Netanyahu had offered concessions in return, potentially including advancing Trump’s Gaza plan and accepting a Palestinian state.

Speaking at Tel Aviv University on Sunday evening, Eisenkot expressed appreciation for Trump’s contribution to Israel’s security and the hostage agreement but insisted that Israeli voters alone would choose their government.

He added that the US administration would be able to cooperate with any government elected in Israel.