Inside Israel’s Settler State and its Hidden Strategy

Israeli settlers use bulldozers to pave a road for a new settlement on the outskirts of the occupied West Bank village of Al-Mughayyir, north of Ramallah, on August 24, 2025. (Photo by Zain JAAFAR / AFP)
Israeli settlers use bulldozers to pave a road for a new settlement on the outskirts of the occupied West Bank village of Al-Mughayyir, north of Ramallah, on August 24, 2025. (Photo by Zain JAAFAR / AFP)
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Inside Israel’s Settler State and its Hidden Strategy

Israeli settlers use bulldozers to pave a road for a new settlement on the outskirts of the occupied West Bank village of Al-Mughayyir, north of Ramallah, on August 24, 2025. (Photo by Zain JAAFAR / AFP)
Israeli settlers use bulldozers to pave a road for a new settlement on the outskirts of the occupied West Bank village of Al-Mughayyir, north of Ramallah, on August 24, 2025. (Photo by Zain JAAFAR / AFP)

For decades, settler attacks in the West Bank were largely concentrated in “Area C,” under full Israeli control. But since the Hamas-led Oct. 7 assault on Israel, violence has spread deeper, reaching “Area B” and reshaping life across the territory.

The assaults, carried out day and night, have coincided with a surge in settlement activity. There are now 243 new settlement outposts that did not exist before the 1993 Oslo accords, and 129 additional “shepherding outposts” established since October 7, 2023, alone.

Officially, Israeli settlements cover 3.6% of the West Bank. But their de facto footprint — including roads, security zones and areas of influence — extends to nearly 10%, according to Palestinian monitoring groups.

Nature reserves are also part of the land Israel has moved to place under its control as part of a sovereignty plan driven by far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.

In what analysts say could be the most decisive step yet toward blocking the creation of a Palestinian state, Smotrich in late August 2025 secured final approval for the long-stalled “E1” project.

The plan, frozen for decades due to international pressure, received a green light from the Civil Administration’s Supreme Planning Council, an arm of Israel’s Defense Ministry.

A Village Turned Into a Cage

In Sinjil, a town of 9,000 people about 21 km north of Ramallah, residents say daily life has come to resemble imprisonment. Fences, gates, settlements and military outposts ring the community, leaving villagers hemmed in and fearful.

The scars of a July 11 attack are still visible. On that day, settlers killed two young Palestinian men in one of the deadliest assaults since the Oct. 7 attack on Israel.

The victims were not from Sinjil but from the nearby town of al-Mazra’a al-Sharqiya. They had come to help defend their neighbors when hundreds of settlers stormed the village.

“It was a wide-scale assault,” said Mohammad Alwan, coordinator of the Popular Committee Against Settlements. “More than 300 settlers gathered in the mountains and attacked the village. It was a tough battle. Neighbors rushed to defend each other.”

Two young men went missing during the clashes. Hours later, villagers found 22-year-old Saif Musallat dead in a valley. “He had just come from America to visit Palestine ...

They hit him until he died,” Alwan said, his voice breaking. “The bruises were all over his body.”

The second victim, Mohammad Shalabi, was shot dead. “Criminals and savages were unleashed on us,” Alwan added.

Alwan, who has lived through decades of settler attacks, said the brutality has escalated sharply since Oct. 7. “After October they built fences, put up gates and seized the rest of the land - 8,000 out of 14,000 dunams. Look how they turned the village into a cage.”

Gates, Closures and Economic Strain

Beyond the human toll, villagers describe economic suffocation. Mechanic Gharib Khalil’s shop lies just behind a yellow gate sealing the village entrance. “Since they put the gate up a year ago, business collapsed. People can’t reach me anymore,” he said.

Nearby, Abed al-Nasser Alwan stood by his broken-down truck trapped on the other side of the gate. “It looks open, but cameras are everywhere. If you move it, they shoot you or arrest you. We’re stuck.”

Palestinian officials say these restrictions are part of a deliberate policy. The Palestinian Colonization and Wall Resistance Commission counts 898 military checkpoints and gates across the West Bank, including 146 added since Oct. 7, 2023.

“These barriers reflect Israel’s closure policy since 1967,” said Amir Dawood, the commission’s publishing director. “They are designed to create a new geographic reality - one of exclusion and surveillance.”

Boundaries Drawn with Fire

The violence has spread to neighboring Kafr Malik, where settlers killed four men in July. Posters of the victims cover village walls, alongside slogans of defiance. Settlements loom from the hilltops above, expanding since Oct. 7.

“From there, they attack the village,” said activist Montaser al-Maliki. “Before October, attacks happened, but not like this. Now they are larger, more organized, and more violent.”

Almost daily, footage circulates of settlers blocking roads or pelting Palestinian cars with stones.

The Vanishing Oslo Map

Maps of the West Bank illustrate how Oslo’s partition into Areas A, B and C has eroded.

Area A, once under full Palestinian control, has become a patchwork of isolated enclaves.

“They’ve built a state within a state,” said Issa Zboun, head of GIS at the Applied Research Institute in Jerusalem. “Instead of giving Palestinians their promised state, they took the land and turned it into a settlers’ state.”

Figures compiled by Palestinian groups show the transformation:

1967: 69 settlements, 98,000 settlers, covering 0.2% of the West Bank.

1993 (Oslo Accords): 172 settlements, 248,000 settlers, covering 1.2%.

2025: 200 official settlements, 243 outposts — including 129 built after Oct. 7 — housing more than 940,000 settlers.

While settlements officially cover 3.6% of the West Bank, their effective footprint — including security zones, bypass roads and areas of influence — reaches nearly 10%.

Zboun said Israel once needed laws to seize land for settlements. “Today they do it without orders, without announcements, without laws,” he said.

In his office, Zboun displayed maps showing how every major Palestinian city is surrounded by settlements and bypass roads. “They turned Area A into isolated islands,” he said. “They’ve built something larger than the Palestinian state Oslo promised.”

For villagers like those in Sinjil and Kafr Malik, the map is redrawn not with ink but with blood. Boundaries, they say, are now “drawn with fire.”

Restricted Zones for the Palestinian Authority

Palestinian security forces are formally allowed to access parts of Areas B and C of the West Bank only with Israeli coordination. Yet even when entry is possible, analysts and residents say it is unthinkable for Palestinian officers to confront armed settlers or the Israeli army directly.

Israel’s military is often present during settler raids, ostensibly to keep order, but Palestinians say soldiers routinely shield settlers rather than restrain them. Many Palestinians have been killed during these attacks, with no record of Israeli law enforcement prosecuting settlers beyond brief detentions.

US Pressure Eased Under Trump

Since the start of the occupation in 1967, no Israeli settler has been jailed for killing Palestinians in West Bank attacks, despite periodic US pressure. The Biden administration sought to curb settler violence by imposing sanctions on settler leaders and their political backers. But President Donald Trump revoked those sanctions on his first day in office, a move that emboldened settler leaders and the Israeli defense minister to scrap a policy allowing administrative detention of violent settlers.

Trump’s arrival in power marked a turning point for both Israel’s right-wing leaders and the settler movement, who viewed his presidency as a rare chance to entrench Israeli sovereignty across the West Bank.

The period after Trump’s election saw what Palestinians describe as “unprecedented terror.” Settler raids became more frequent, larger, and more violent.

According to The Palestinian Colonization and Wall Resistance Commission, Israel carried out 11,280 attacks in the first half of 2025, of which 2,154 were by settler militias, killing six Palestinians.

The Trump administration remained silent even after high-profile killings, including that of Musallat.

Only after Musallat’s family launched legal action and US media spotlighted the case did US ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, call for accountability.

This was a criminal and terrorist act, Huckabee said, before visiting the nearby Christian town of Taybeh, where settlers had recently torched an old cemetery.

Despite his words - calling the attacks “absolute terrorism” and the desecration of holy sites a “crime against humanity” - no arrests were made, and settlers continued their assaults, including fresh raids on Taybeh.

The Desert Raids

Settler attacks have also spread to remote desert communities near Bethlehem, in what locals say is a campaign of intimidation.

In the village of al-Minya, council head Zayed Kawazba pointed to burned-out cars as evidence of recent raids. “They can come at any time,” he said. “Wherever they go, destruction follows.”

Nearby Kisan and the desert hamlet of Deir al-Ahmar have also faced near-daily violence. Residents describe settlers beating villagers, burning homes, killing livestock and then accusing Palestinians of theft.

“Before Oct. 7, the attacks were limited, but afterwards the orders came,” said Adnan Abayat of Deir al-Ahmar, showing a scar from a settler beating. “Now they are relentless. People can’t defend themselves, many have already left.”

A Secret Plan in Plain Sight

Palestinians and rights groups say these raids are not random but part of a broader Israeli strategy led by Smotrich, who also holds sweeping powers over the West Bank’s Civil Administration.

Since being appointed in 2022, Smotrich has overseen what critics call the most dramatic transformation of West Bank governance since 1967. By transferring powers once reserved for the Israeli military to civilian officials loyal to him, Smotrich has blurred the line between military occupation and outright annexation.

Though Israel denies officially annexing the West Bank, Smotrich has openly declared his aim of blocking any Palestinian state and entrenching Jewish settlement. A leaked recording captured him calling the process “a dramatic shift that changes the DNA of the system.”

In August 2025, Smotrich secured final approval for the long-stalled E1 settlement plan, linking Jerusalem to the vast Maale Adumim bloc. The project, frozen for decades under international pressure, will effectively bisect the West Bank, severing north from south and crippling the territorial viability of a Palestinian state.

“This is historic,” Smotrich said. “The Palestinian state has been erased from the table — not with slogans but with deeds. Every settlement, every house, every neighborhood is another nail in the coffin of that dangerous idea.”

Israeli rights group B’Tselem warned that the move cements a system of apartheid by entrenching “a bi-national state of separation.”

The E1 approval followed a July 23 Knesset vote endorsing annexation of the West Bank - condemned by the Palestinian Authority and Hamas alike. Netanyahu framed the decision as “a response to Western recognition plans for Palestine” and vowed to accelerate settlement expansion.

Infrastructure work on E1 could begin within months, with housing construction starting as early as next year, Israeli officials said.

B’Tselem argues that Israel has already created a dual system of governance in the occupied West Bank, with separate legal regimes for settlers and Palestinians, amounting to apartheid.

Smotrich has made little effort to disguise his intentions. His 2017 manifesto openly called for dismantling the Palestinian Authority, preventing statehood, and forcing Palestinians to choose between emigration, second-class citizenship, or resistance.

In two years of the current government, observers say Smotrich has delivered a historic shift, consolidating Israeli civilian rule over occupied land and accelerating settlement expansion at a pace unseen in decades.

As settlers push deeper into Palestinian villages and deserts, residents say they are left with only three choices: flee, submit, or resist.

“Their plan is to erase us,” said Abayat. “They beat us, burn our homes, kill our sheep and the world says nothing. We have nothing left but survival.”



US, Israel Tactics Diverge on Iran as Trump's Goals Still 'Fuzzy'

Trump, emboldened by his January operation in Venezuela, has held out hope for working with a figure within the Iranian republic -- while Israel has openly declared it will kill any high-ranking Iranian official it sees. Jim WATSON / AFP
Trump, emboldened by his January operation in Venezuela, has held out hope for working with a figure within the Iranian republic -- while Israel has openly declared it will kill any high-ranking Iranian official it sees. Jim WATSON / AFP
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US, Israel Tactics Diverge on Iran as Trump's Goals Still 'Fuzzy'

Trump, emboldened by his January operation in Venezuela, has held out hope for working with a figure within the Iranian republic -- while Israel has openly declared it will kill any high-ranking Iranian official it sees. Jim WATSON / AFP
Trump, emboldened by his January operation in Venezuela, has held out hope for working with a figure within the Iranian republic -- while Israel has openly declared it will kill any high-ranking Iranian official it sees. Jim WATSON / AFP

US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu both praise their relationship as excellent, but after three weeks of attacking Iran, their tactics are increasingly diverging -- the result, some experts say, of Trump's ill-defined goals.

Trump said Thursday that he told Netanyahu not to attack Iran's gas fields after an Israeli strike prompted Tehran to retaliate against a major energy hub in Qatar, sending global prices soaring further.

Earlier this month, the United States voiced unease after Israel bombed fuel depots around Tehran, smothering the city of 10 million people with toxic black smoke.

Trump, emboldened by his January operation in Venezuela, has held out hope for working with a figure within the Iranian republic -- while Israel has openly declared it will kill any high-ranking Iranian official it sees.

"The objectives that have been laid out by the president are different from the objectives that have been laid out by the Israelis," Tulsi Gabbard, Trump's director of national intelligence, acknowledged in a congressional hearing this week.

Netanyahu, after the public reproach on the gas fields attack, publicly hailed Trump at a news conference late Thursday, saying that no "two leaders have been as coordinated."

"He's the leader. I'm, you know, his ally," Netanyahu said.

- 'Fuzzy' Trump goal -

But Netanyahu has been far more clear than Trump on what he wants in Iran.

Netanyahu has long described Iran's cleric-run government as the top enemy and has vowed to topple or at least crush it.

"Israel wants some sort of regime change whereas the United States is fuzzy and unclear about what the end state is," said Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington.

Trump has spoken in glowing terms about tactical military successes but also faces mounting pressure at home unlike Netanyahu.

The war is unpopular with the US public, including parts of Trump's base, and has led to higher gas prices for consumers and turbulence on markets months ahead of congressional elections.

Trump also has a close relationship with Gulf Arab states, longtime allies that serve as bases for US troops and are softer targets for Iran than Israel.

Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving leader, also faces elections this year, in which he is expected to highlight his support from Trump.

Katulis noted that Trump has not hesitated to pressure Israel before -- forcing a ceasefire in Gaza last year after Israel attacked Hamas leaders in Qatar, and angrily demanding that Israel hold fire on Iran last year after he announced a truce.

"It's not unimaginable that Trump sees the cost of this war getting too high and hindering his domestic agenda," Katulis said.

"I don't think Israel under Netanyahu is going to ignore Trump but that would require Trump actually articulating some sort of soft landing."

- New dynamic for Israel -

The conflict marks a watershed for Israel in fighting a war as part of an alliance. In the two wars against Iraq, the United States tried hard to keep Israel out, fearing its presence would alienate Arab allies.

Yossi Mekelberg, a Middle East expert at London-based think tank Chatham House, said that Israel and the United States started with an aim of regime change before encountering the heavy counter-attack by Iran.

"When things go wonderfully well, everyone is happy, you know -- they all praise each other," he said.

"If it starts going really wrong, and we know that Trump is not the sentimental type, then the blame starts flying," he said.

Robert Malley, who negotiated with Iran under former president Joe Biden, said that both Israel and Iran had clear goals, with Israel wanting to sow the Iranian government's collapse and Tehran seeking to survive and to externalize the costs of the war.

The unpredictable actor is Trump, who has said both that the war will be short or will intensify and sees world affairs in deeply personal terms, particularly on whether he can claim victory.

"He's offered a series of shifting goals, not just day by day but often hour by hour," said Malley, now a senior fellow at the Yale Jackson School of Global Affairs.

"In some ways, you need to be more of a psychologist than a policy analyst to be able to understand where we're going," he said.


Ghalibaf: Iran’s New Strongman Running War Effort

12 October 2024, Lebanon, Beirut: Iranian parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf speaks during a press conference in Beirut. (Hassan Ibrahim/Lebanese Parliament/dpa)
12 October 2024, Lebanon, Beirut: Iranian parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf speaks during a press conference in Beirut. (Hassan Ibrahim/Lebanese Parliament/dpa)
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Ghalibaf: Iran’s New Strongman Running War Effort

12 October 2024, Lebanon, Beirut: Iranian parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf speaks during a press conference in Beirut. (Hassan Ibrahim/Lebanese Parliament/dpa)
12 October 2024, Lebanon, Beirut: Iranian parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf speaks during a press conference in Beirut. (Hassan Ibrahim/Lebanese Parliament/dpa)

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's parliament speaker and a veteran of the Revolutionary Guards, has emerged as the highest-profile political figure in the country after the killing of its leaders.

A pillar of the Iranian establishment for some three decades and one of the regime's most prominent non-clerical figures, Ghalibaf, 64, now appears to be playing a key role spearheading the war effort.

Whereas the son and successor of slain supreme leader Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei, has not appeared in public and has issued just three written statements, Ghalibaf has been unleashing regular posts on X and giving multiple interviews.

"We are in an unequal war, with an asymmetrical set-up, we must do something and use equipment with our own culture, design and creativity," he told Iranian television on Wednesday.

In a post on X, he added that after attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure, "an eye-for-an-eye sum is in effect, and a new level of confrontation has begun".

However, possibly aware of the threat to his own security, he did not, unlike the late Larijani, appear in public at pro-government rallies last week in support of the Palestinian cause.

Larijani was killed in an Israeli air strike on Monday, which followed the killing of Khamenei at the start of the war on February 28.

Ghalibaf's varied experience, which spans military and civilian life, has seen him work as commander of the Revolutionary Guards aerospace corps, Tehran police chief, Tehran mayor and now speaker of parliament.

Known to be fiercely ambitious, he has stood for the Iranian presidency on multiple occasions but has never been successful, most notably in 2005 when the ultra-conservative Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, little-known at the time, took the presidency.

A qualified pilot, Ghalibaf is known for boasting that he is able to captain jumbo jets.

Farzan Sabet, a managing researcher at the Geneva Graduate Institute, said that after Larijani's killing Ghalibaf was the "person likely overseeing the war effort and strategy".

"He's the speaker of parliament, a former senior IRGC commander and has strong cross-factional and institutional ties, positioning him well to move into this role," he told AFP.

- 'Very favorable position' -

Ghalibaf fought in the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War and rose rapidly through the ranks. He reached the upper echelons of the military establishment in the late 1990s when he became commander of the Guards' fledgling aerospace forces.

He was then named national police commander in 1999, against the backdrop of unprecedented student protests.

He has long coveted the presidency, running in 2005, 2013 and 2024, and briefly entering the 2017 race before withdrawing in favor of another conservative candidate. His strongest showing came in 2013, when he finished second.

After the 2005 presidential election loss, he was elected mayor of Tehran.

During his 12 years as mayor, supporters praised his technocratic approach and focus on urban management, while critics pointed to allegations of financial corruption.

Human rights groups have accused Ghalibaf, in his various functions, of playing a key role in suppressing protests, from the 1999 student demonstrations through to the 2009 Green movement that erupted after a disputed election right up to the nationwide protests that peaked in January 2026.

Ghalibaf was elected speaker of parliament in 2020, at times advocating economic reforms and stronger parliamentary oversight while remaining aligned with the Islamic republic's core institutions.

"Iran's strongest man is now probably Ghalibaf," said Arash Azizi, lecturer at Yale University, describing him as "a rare figure whose portfolio crosses between military, security and political functions of the regime".

"He is known to be running the war effort now," Azizi said, adding that Ghalibaf appeared to be an ally of Mojtaba Khamenei.

"He seems to be in a very favorable position now."

Ghalibaf has predicted the war would reshape the Middle East, but not on Washington's terms.

"The order here will change, but it will not be an order in which the will of the United States prevails," he said in a recorded video interview carried by Tasnim news agency and other media.


As Israel Expands Strikes on Beirut, Delivery Drivers Steer Clear of Danger

 People who work as delivery drivers for the Toters delivery app stand outside a delivery center in Beirut, Lebanon, March 18, 2026. (Reuters)
People who work as delivery drivers for the Toters delivery app stand outside a delivery center in Beirut, Lebanon, March 18, 2026. (Reuters)
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As Israel Expands Strikes on Beirut, Delivery Drivers Steer Clear of Danger

 People who work as delivery drivers for the Toters delivery app stand outside a delivery center in Beirut, Lebanon, March 18, 2026. (Reuters)
People who work as delivery drivers for the Toters delivery app stand outside a delivery center in Beirut, Lebanon, March 18, 2026. (Reuters)

Lebanese food courier Hamza Hareb now keeps his distance if he spots a car with tinted windows while on a delivery run in Beirut. Hezbollah is rumored to use such cars, and Hareb wants to steer clear of any Israeli strikes targeting the armed group.

Israel has expanded its air campaign to new parts of Beirut in recent days, hitting apartments and downing entire buildings in strikes it says are targeting Hezbollah, which pulled Lebanon into the regional war on March 2 by firing into Israeli territory.

On Wednesday, Israel struck different neighborhoods in the heart of Beirut, leaving mounds of rubble hundreds of meters away from government buildings, restaurants and roads usually clogged with traffic.

As residents of the capital stay home in fear, they are ordering delivery for dinner - and drivers like Hareb are navigating a maze ‌of risks to ‌make it happen.

"Of course, we are afraid. That is ever-present," said Hareb, one ‌of ⁠3,000 couriers in ⁠Beirut who work for Toters, among Lebanon's most popular delivery apps.

Like most gig workers, Toters drivers are paid per delivery. For many, the job is an economic lifeline in the heavily indebted country, which is suffering from years of economic crisis and political instability following a financial collapse in 2019.

"You don't know when the strikes will come, so we have adapted to everything," Hareb said.

'NAVIGATING INTO UNCERTAINTY'

Israel sometimes issues evacuation warnings before striking, telling residents to leave the area. But three of Wednesday's four strikes on Beirut came without notice.

"Right now they're increasingly ⁠striking without warning, and of course this is instilling a sense of ‌fear among us (since) we spend most of our time out ‌in the street," Hareb told Reuters.

If Beirut is rocked by an unexpected strike, drivers pull over to figure out which ‌neighborhood was targeted and how to amend their routes if needed. If an evacuation warning is issued, ‌drivers pass it on through work channels so colleagues can avoid targeted areas.

Toters' director of operations Roland Ghanem said the company did not deliver to neighborhoods that fall within Israel's evacuation orders and has barred drivers from using risky roads near possible targets.

"These drivers navigate into uncertainty... just to make sure that others can still have access to food ‌and basic needs," Ghanem said. "They understand that behind every order, there is a family that has been displaced, or an elderly person that cannot go to ⁠the store and get ⁠some food, or just a regular person trying to get through the day."

WORKING IN A WAR

Israeli strikes have killed nearly 1,000 people and displaced another million across Lebanon, according to Lebanese authorities.

For some drivers, the war has hit close to home - literally. Mahmoud al-Benne, 34, had to flee his home in Beirut's southern suburbs earlier this month when Israel issued a blanket evacuation order for the entire area and began bombing it heavily.

But he still needs to work.

"Whether you are displaced or not displaced, you need to earn money," Benne said. "You have responsibilities. We are in a state of war, but at the end of the day we want to work."

Marie Katanjian stands out among her colleagues as a rare female delivery driver. Her husband delivers for Toters and she was inspired to do the same.

"We have to work in this situation because we have families. We're helping each other out, hand in hand," she said.

Still, she's yearning to drive safely through her city's streets again.

“We want the war to end, so we can take a breath.”