Russia, Iran Await Appointment of Walid Moalem’s Successor

In this Aug. 30, 2018, file photo, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moalem gestures as he speaks to the media in Moscow, Russia. (AP)
In this Aug. 30, 2018, file photo, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moalem gestures as he speaks to the media in Moscow, Russia. (AP)
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Russia, Iran Await Appointment of Walid Moalem’s Successor

In this Aug. 30, 2018, file photo, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moalem gestures as he speaks to the media in Moscow, Russia. (AP)
In this Aug. 30, 2018, file photo, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moalem gestures as he speaks to the media in Moscow, Russia. (AP)

Late Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moalem was laid to rest on Monday. The “soft face” of the regime and the man with the “velvet statements” was one of the regime’s staunchest supporters even as it suppressed a peaceful uprising that devolved into a bloody conflict that has been raging for nearly a decade.

Moalem died as the Assad regime marked 50 years since coming to power through the Corrective Movement. Sine then, Syria has only known three foreign ministers, with Moalem the only one to pass away without defecting from the regime or being removed from his post.

The longtime supporter of the regime passed away after a short fight with cancer. He already had a history of heart problems.

His death coincided with president Bashar Assad’s introduction of political, security and media changes that brought figures he is close with deeper into his inner circle. Among them is journalist Luna al-Shibl, who was appointed “special aide at the presidency.” She will still retain her position as director of press and political bureau.

With Moalem’s passing, attention will now be turned to his successor as Syria remains in the grips of a power struggle between Russia, Iran and other regional and international players. Western diplomats who recently visited Damascus believe that deputy foreign minister Faisal Mekdad leans close to Iran. Another candidate is Ayman Sousan, the assistant foreign minister, and Bashar al-Jaafari, Syria’s ambassador to the United Nations. Sousan is believed to be close to the Russians, while Jaafari leans more towards Iran.

Moreover, the new foreign minister will have to take on the role of holding talks with western countries and negotiations with Tel Aviv. Moalem was one of the most prominent Syrian negotiators who had held open and covert talks with Israel.

Beginnings
Moalem, who was commonly known in Syria as “Abou Tarik”, was born on July 17, 1941. He went to school in Damascus and Tartus, before enrolling at Cairo University and graduating with a degree in economics in 1963. His return to Damascus later that year coincided with the rise of the Baath party and its ensuing coup.

He joined the diplomatic corps and was appointed to various embassies. He served as ambassador to Romania between 1975 and 1980. Then Foreign Minister Abdul Halim Khaddam was not impressed with him and subsequently sent him off to work at the ministry’s archive department. Moalem used that time to write some books. He would write four throughout his lifetime.

Farouk al-Sharaa replaced Khaddam, who was appointed vice president in 1984. Moalem was then appointed as head of the private offices department, one of the most significant in the ministry.

With the launch of Syrian-Israeli peace negotiations in 1991, he was appointed ambassador to the United States, a post he retained until 1999. During this time, he held and attended a series of secret meetings with Israeli politicians and military figures, impressing the Americans, Europeans and Arab countries.

Then president Hafez Assad recalled him abruptly from Washington, possibly over his exaggeration of claims with the Israelis. For a short while Moalem would be marginalized in Damascus before being appointed aide and then deputy foreign minister. He would oversee efforts aimed at reaching “settlements” in Lebanon. He was among the last Syrian officials to speak to slain Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Hariri was assassinated in a major car bombing in Beirut on February 14, 2005. The murder is widely blamed on Syria, an allegation it has repeatedly denied. In February 2006, Moalem was appointed foreign minister, succeeding Sharaa, who was named vice president, replacing Khaddam who had defected from the regime.

‘Hawks’ and ‘pigeons’
Since becoming foreign minister, Moalem would become known for his “pragmatism” or as a “pigeon” among the “hawks” led by Sharaa. Sharaa in turn had inherited this role from the “brusque Khaddam”.

Moalem was an advocate of establishing relations with the West and Arab countries. He believed in having a “balanced” relationship with Iran. These stances led many opposition figures to believe that Moalem would defect from the regime with the eruption of the 2011 protests.

They were wrong. In fact, Moalem would emerge as one of the staunchest defenders of Damascus. He became the face of the regime, holding regular press conferences and talks with Moscow and Tehran, Damascus’ main allies. He managed to retain his position since then, even amid government reshuffles over the years.

Moalem frequently stressed that Assad would remain in his position “as long as the people wanted it.” He was among the first officials to describe the opponents of the regime as “terrorists” and was one of the fiercest critics of Kurdish fighters for receiving support from Washington.

Throughout his long rambling press conferences, he always described the war in Syria as a “foreign conspiracy.” He was known for his dismissive and mocking attitude of the West that had slapped sanctions on Syria and its officials. He spoke in a soft tone, exuding calm even during the toughest days of the conflict. During the conflict, his foreign trips became limited to Russia, Iran, Muscat and the United Nations headquarters in New York.

The opposition had met Moalem’s statements with criticism and ridicule, once mocking his claims that he wanted to “wipe Europe off the map.”

In August 2011, Washington imposed sanctions on the minister, whom it said was using the excuse of a foreign conspiracy on Syria in order to conceal the terrorist acts of the regime and spread lies. An American official at the time described him as the liaison between Damascus and Tehran. A year later, the Europeans would slap him with their own sanctions for the violent repression of protests in Damascus.

Moalem’s last public appearance was at the opening of an international refugee conference last Wednesday in Damascus, when he appeared to be in ill health. The following day, he did not attend the closing ceremony of the event, which was co-hosted with Russia.

In Tehran, Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif expressed his condolences, praising Moalem for his “important role” in defending Syria’s national interests and security, the official IRNA news agency reported.

Russian deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov hailed Moalem as a diplomat who “understood the importance of Syrian-Russian relations.”

“We have lost a very reliable partner and sincere friend,” said Bogdanov, who was formerly stationed in Damascus. He stressed that he had been in “almost constant contact” with Moalem in the 35 years he had known him.

Oman, the sole Gulf country to keep diplomatic ties with Syria, offered its condolences to Syria, as did Lebanese President Michel Aoun.



The Fragile Israel-Hezbollah Truce is Holding so Far, Despite Violations

Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
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The Fragile Israel-Hezbollah Truce is Holding so Far, Despite Violations

Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)

A fragile ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanon's Hezbollah has held up for over a month, even as its terms seem unlikely to be met by the agreed-upon deadline.

The deal struck on Nov. 27 to halt the war required Hezbollah to immediately lay down its arms in southern Lebanon and gave Israel 60 days to withdraw its forces there and hand over control to the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers.

So far, Israel has withdrawn from just two of the dozens of towns it holds in southern Lebanon. And it has continued striking what it says are bases belonging to Hezbollah, which it accuses of attempting to launch rockets and move weapons before they can be confiscated and destroyed, The AP reported.

Hezbollah, which was severely diminished during nearly 14 months of war, has threatened to resume fighting if Israel does not fully withdraw its forces by the 60-day deadline.

Yet despite accusations from both sides about hundreds of ceasefire violations, the truce is likely to hold, analysts say. That is good news for thousands of Israeli and Lebanese families displaced by the war still waiting to return home.

“The ceasefire agreement is rather opaque and open to interpretation,” said Firas Maksad, a senior fellow with the Middle East Institute in Washington. That flexibility, he said, may give it a better chance of holding in the face of changing circumstances, including the ouster of Syria's longtime leader, Bashar Assad, just days after the ceasefire took effect.

With Assad gone, Hezbollah lost a vital route for smuggling weapons from Iran. While that further weakened Hezbollah’s hand, Israel had already agreed to the US-brokered ceasefire.

Hezbollah began firing rockets into Israel on Oct. 8, 2023 — the day after Hamas launched a deadly attack into Israel that ignited the ongoing war in Gaza. Since then, Israeli air and ground assaults have killed more than 4,000 people in Lebanon, including hundreds of civilians. At the height of the war, more than 1 million Lebanese people were displaced.

Hezbollah rockets forced some 60,000 from their homes in northern Israel, and killed 76 people in Israel, including 31 soldiers. Almost 50 Israeli soldiers were killed during operations inside Lebanon.

Here’s a look at the terms of the ceasefire and its prospects for ending hostilities over the long-term.

What does the ceasefire agreement say? The agreement says that both Hezbollah and Israel will halt “offensive” military actions, but that they can act in self-defense, although it is not entirely clear how that term may be interpreted.

The Lebanese army is tasked with preventing Hezbollah and other militant groups from launching attacks into Israel. It is also required to dismantle Hezbollah facilities and weapons in southern Lebanon — activities that might eventually be expanded to the rest of Lebanon, although it is not explicit in the ceasefire agreement.

The United States, France, Israel, Lebanon and the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, are responsible for overseeing implementation of the agreement.

“The key question is not whether the deal will hold, but what version of it will be implemented,” Maksad, the analyst, said.

Is the ceasefire being implemented? Hezbollah has for the most part halted its rocket and drone fire into Israel, and Israel has stopped attacking Hezbollah in most areas of Lebanon. But Israel has launched regular airstrikes on what it says are militant sites in southern Lebanon and in the Bekaa Valley.

Israeli forces have so far withdrawn from two towns in southern Lebanon - Khiam and Shamaa. They remain in some 60 others, according to the International Organization for Migration, and around 160,000 Lebanese remain displaced.

Lebanon has accused Israel of repeatedly violating the ceasefire agreement and last week submitted a complaint to the UN Security Council that says Israel launched some 816 “ground and air attacks” between the start of the ceasefire and Dec. 22, 2024.

The complaint said the attacks have hindered the Lebanese army's efforts to deploy in the south and uphold its end of the ceasefire agreement.

Until Israel hands over control of more towns to the Lebanese army, Israeli troops have been destroying Hezbollah infrastructure, including weapons warehouses and underground tunnels. Lebanese authorities say Israel has also destroyed civilian houses and infrastructure.

What happens after the ceasefire has been in place for 60 days? Israel's withdrawal from Lebanese towns has been slower than anticipated because of a lack of Lebanese army troops ready to take over, according to Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, a military spokesman. Lebanon disputes this, and says it is waiting for Israel to withdraw before entering the towns.

Shoshani said Israel is satisfied with the Lebanese army's control of the areas it has already withdrawn from, and that while it would prefer a faster transfer of power, security is its most important objective.

Israel does not consider the 60-day timetable for withdrawal to be “sacred,” said Harel Chorev, an expert on Israel-Lebanon relations at Tel Aviv University who estimates that Lebanon will need to recruit and deploy thousands more troops before Israel will be ready to hand over control.

Hezbollah officials have said that if Israeli forces remain in Lebanon 60 days past the start of the ceasefire, the militant group might return to attacking them. But Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Kassem said Wednesday that, for now, the group is holding off to give the Lebanese state a chance to "take responsibility” for enforcing the agreement.

Over the final two months of the war, Hezbollah suffered major blows to its leadership, weapons and forces from a barrage of Israeli airstrikes, and a ground invasion that led to fierce battles in southern Lebanon. The fall of Assad was another big setback.

“The power imbalance suggests Israel may want to ensure greater freedom of action after the 60-day period,” Maksad, the analyst, said. And Hezbollah, in its weakened position, now has a “strong interest” in making sure the deal doesn't fall apart altogether “despite Israeli violations,” he said.

While Hezbollah may not be in a position to return to open war with Israel, it or other groups could mount guerilla attacks using light weaponry if Israeli troops remain in southern Lebanon, said former Lebanese army Gen. Hassan Jouni. And even if Israel does withdraw all of its ground forces, Jouni said, the Israeli military could could continue to carry out sporadic airstrikes in Lebanon, much as it has done in Syria for years.