US Intelligence Report Predicts Deterioration of Humanitarian Situation in Yemen

A Yemeni child at a displacement camp in a Sanaa suburb. (EPA)
A Yemeni child at a displacement camp in a Sanaa suburb. (EPA)
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US Intelligence Report Predicts Deterioration of Humanitarian Situation in Yemen

A Yemeni child at a displacement camp in a Sanaa suburb. (EPA)
A Yemeni child at a displacement camp in a Sanaa suburb. (EPA)

As the conflict and suffering continue in Yemen, a US intelligence report predicted that the humanitarian situation in the war-torn country will deteriorate.

Such reports from the US military intelligence are not surprising to the Yemeni people, who have been suffering from instability that erupted with the so-called Arab Spring revolts and the ouster of Ali Abdullah Saleh in 2011.

In a report to Congress that was seen by Asharq Al-Awsat, military intelligence said that Yemen was suffering the world’s worst health and humanitarian crisis that is expected to continue due to the war.

The report held the Iran-backed Houthi militias responsible for the crisis because they control most inhabited regions in Yemen.

Moreover, it accused Iran of continuing to support the militias with weapons and military advisors in order to pressure the Saudi-led Arab coalition and help in carrying out complex and long-range attacks against the Kingdom. Indeed in 2019 and 2020, these attacks reached Saudi cities, regions and oil facilities.

The report noted that in 2020, the Houthis escalated their rocket and drone attacks against Saudi Arabia. They also made major gains in areas under their control and that were held by the Yemeni government. They also consolidated their control over northwestern Yemen and are now threatening Marib city, the last government military and economic stronghold in the north.

The report added that the Houthis were growing increasingly confident due to the ongoing support they are receiving from Iran. They are now seeking negotiations with the Saudi-led coalition that would clearly reflect the situation on the ground and their military successes.

On the humanitarian and health efforts, the report said that even though the Yemeni government exerted some efforts to monitor the outbreak of the coronavirus and offered medical aid to some provinces, the Yemeni leadership lacks cohesion and financial resources to implement effective measures to combat the pandemic.

The report accused the Houthis of underestimating the impact of the virus and of underreporting actual infections in areas under their control. This means that Yemen may continue to face health and economic crises that would exacerbate the already severe humanitarian crisis.

Meanwhile, several Congressmen criticized Iran’s behavior in supporting the Houthis and its armament of the militias to escalate the Yemeni crisis. They called for a ceasefire and an end to the humanitarian crisis.

“Iran continues to send deadly weapons to the Houthis in Yemen, which is a blatant violation of the UN Arms Embargo,” tweeted Congresswoman Claudia Tenney, stressing that the cleric-led regime “must stop its illegal and dangerous activities.”

Tenney also blamed Iran for actively exacerbating the humanitarian catastrophe in Yemen.

“That the US Navy seized another shipment of Iranian weapons bound for Yemen should come as no surprise. Iran has sought to fuel civil war in Yemen since at least 2013,” said US Senator for Arkansas Tom Cotton in a tweet on Sunday.

Meanwhile, calls have been increasing on the Houthis to cease their yearlong offensive against oil-rich Marib. The calls have fallen on deaf ears, which is threatening to exacerbate the humanitarian catastrophe in the province that is home to a million Yemenis, most of whom have been displaced there from the six-year civil war.

Meanwhile, US Special Envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking discussed de-escalation in Yemen’s northeastern governorate of Marib, ending the Yemeni humanitarian crisis and achieving a settlement among all warring parties.

He did so with several European ambassadors and representatives of international organizations.

In a tweet, the US State Department confirmed that Lenderking and Christopher Farnaud, France’s director for the Middle East at the Foreign Affairs Ministry, spoke on Tuesday.

The two agreed that “Houthis are holding the future of Yemen hostage, continuing a long, costly offensive on Marib.”

Moreover, the State Department said Lenderking and Farnaud considered the Saudi-proposed ceasefire to be a “fair deal” and called on Houthis to engage.

The State Department also rebuked the Iran-backed group for refusing to meet the UN’s Yemen envoy, Martin Griffiths, in Oman last week.



Sudan: Global Food Monitor Says Famine Has Taken Gold in Darfur

Women and children wait to fill their jerrycans with water at the Huri camp for people displaced by the ongoing conflict in Sudan, south of Gedaref in eastern Sudan, on March 29, 2024 during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. (Photo by Ebrahim Hamid / AFP)
Women and children wait to fill their jerrycans with water at the Huri camp for people displaced by the ongoing conflict in Sudan, south of Gedaref in eastern Sudan, on March 29, 2024 during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. (Photo by Ebrahim Hamid / AFP)
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Sudan: Global Food Monitor Says Famine Has Taken Gold in Darfur

Women and children wait to fill their jerrycans with water at the Huri camp for people displaced by the ongoing conflict in Sudan, south of Gedaref in eastern Sudan, on March 29, 2024 during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. (Photo by Ebrahim Hamid / AFP)
Women and children wait to fill their jerrycans with water at the Huri camp for people displaced by the ongoing conflict in Sudan, south of Gedaref in eastern Sudan, on March 29, 2024 during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. (Photo by Ebrahim Hamid / AFP)

The war in Sudan and restrictions on aid deliveries have caused famine in at least one site in North Darfur, and have likely led to famine conditions in other parts of the conflict region, a committee of food security experts said in a report on Thursday.

The finding, linked to an internationally recognised standard known as the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), is just the third time a famine determination has been made since the system was set up 20 years ago.

It shows how starvation and disease are taking a deadly toll in Sudan, where more than 15 months of war between the army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have created the world's biggest internal displacement crisis and left 25 million people - or half the population - in urgent need of humanitarian aid.

Experts and UN officials say a famine classification could trigger a UN Security Council resolution empowering agencies to deliver relief across borders to the most needy.

In its report, the Famine Review Committee (FRC) found that famine, confirmed when acute malnutrition and mortality criteria are met, was ongoing in North Darfur's Zamzam camp for Internally Displaced People (IDPs) and likely to persist there at least until October.

Zamzam has a population of 500,000. It is near the city of al-Fashir, home to 1.8 million people and the last significant holdout from the RSF across Darfur. The RSF has been besieging the area and no aid has reached the sprawling camp for months.

The primary causes of famine in Zamzam camp are conflict and severely restricted humanitarian access, the FRC said, Reuters reported.

It said it was plausible that similar conditions were affecting other areas in Darfur including the displaced persons camps of Abu Shouk and Al Salam.

In late June, an IPC process led by the Sudanese government found that 14 areas in the country, including parts of El Gezira, Kordofan and Khartoum states, were at risk of famine.

Reuters has reported that some Sudanese have been forced to eat leaves and soil, and that satellite imagery showed cemeteries expanding fast as starvation and disease spread.

A Reuters analysis of satellite images identified 14 burial grounds in Darfur that had expanded rapidly in recent months. One cemetery in Zamzam grew 50% faster in the period between March 28 and May 3 than in the preceding three-and-a-half months. The analysis was used by the famine review committee as indirect evidence of increasing mortality.

The FRC finding comes during Sudan's lean season, when food availability is lowest. Experts fear that even when harvest season comes in October, crops will be scarce because war prevented farmers from planting.

Sudan's war erupted in mid-April last year from a power struggle between Sudan's army and the RSF ahead of an internationally backed political transition towards civilian rule.

The factions had shared power uneasily after staging a coup in 2021 that derailed a previous transition following the overthrow of autocrat Omar al-Bashir two years earlier.

Since the war began, aid workers say international relief has been blocked by the army and looted by the RSF. Both sides deny impeding aid.

Even where markets have supplies, many Sudanese cannot buy food because of soaring prices and a lack of cash.

In February, the military-backed government prohibited aid deliveries from Chad to Darfur through the Adre border crossing, one of the shortest routes to the hunger-stricken region. Government officials have claimed that the crossing is used by the RSF to move weapons.

The alternative Tine border crossing is currently inaccessible because of heavy rain, according to the U.N. humanitarian agency, OCHA.

The FRC called for a ceasefire and "unhindered access" into Darfur.

Sudan's government, which is aligned with the army, has signalled its opposition to any famine declaration.

Al-Harith Idriss, Sudan's envoy at the UN, said in late June that a famine "dictated from above" could lead "ill-wishers to intervene in Sudan".

Nicholas Haan, a member of the FRC and cofounder of the IPC, said he hoped the finding would "shake people, the power brokers, to respond as they need to".

"And that means humanitarian access, that means funding at the level that needs to be funded ... and it means all due political pressure to end the conflict."

The IPC is an initiative of more than a dozen UN agencies, regional bodies and aid groups and is the main global system for measuring food crises. Its most extreme warning is Phase 5, which has two levels, catastrophe and famine. The conditions for classifying an area to be in famine are that at least 20% of the population must be suffering extreme food shortages, with 30% of children acutely malnourished and two people out of every 10,000 dying daily from starvation or from malnutrition and disease.

In Zamzam, the FRC said data from Médecins Sans Frontières on acute malnutrition from January 2024 revealed rates exceeding the IPC famine threshold, while the mortality rate reached 1.9 deaths in every 10,000 people per day.

Since the IPC process began, famine has been declared in parts of Somalia in 2011 and in parts of South Sudan in 2017.