Israeli Intelligence Estimate Iran Is 8 Weeks from Developing Nuclear Weapons

Advanced centrifuges at the Nuclear Industry Fair in Tehran April 2021. (Reuters)
Advanced centrifuges at the Nuclear Industry Fair in Tehran April 2021. (Reuters)
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Israeli Intelligence Estimate Iran Is 8 Weeks from Developing Nuclear Weapons

Advanced centrifuges at the Nuclear Industry Fair in Tehran April 2021. (Reuters)
Advanced centrifuges at the Nuclear Industry Fair in Tehran April 2021. (Reuters)

Israel's latest intelligence estimates that Iran is now six to eight weeks away from reaching the fissile material that would allow the development of a nuclear bomb. Still, it has not decided to move forward with that.

Israeli broadcaster Kan 11 quoted security sources as saying that Tehran was able to reduce the timetable that allows it to be able to develop nuclear weapons. Currently, it can produce a quantity of 90 percent enriched uranium, the percentage required to begin making a nuclear bomb.

However, the sources said that despite Iran's progress towards nuclear weapons, it took a decision to stop at this point, which would enable it to bargain during the ongoing negotiations in Vienna over its nuclear program.

The channel quoted a senior official in the Israeli establishment saying that Iran can go further and turn into a nuclear threshold state, but it chooses not to do so.

Under the nuclear deal, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed in 2015, Iran can reach no more than 3.67 percent, the appropriate level for most civilian nuclear energy uses.

Last January, Iran reached 20 percent enrichment and increased that to 60 percent in April.

According to the latest report issued by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium amounted to 2489.7 kilograms until last month.

The total stock includes 113.8 kg enriched at 20 percent and 17.7 kg enriched up to 60 percent.

Experts from the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security estimated that one "significant quantity" of 60 percent enriched uranium is 40 kg, roughly enough for one nuclear explosive.

Some research suggests that 60 percent enrichment could be about 99 percent of the effort to make weapons.

Experts note that Iran will also need to take other steps to enrich uranium to obtain a bomb.

Last August, Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz stated that Iran was ten weeks away from producing an amount of enriched uranium to develop a nuclear bomb.

It is inferred from the new Israeli intelligence estimates that Iran has jumped far ahead.

If Tehran decides to develop a nuclear bomb, it will need six to eight weeks of producing the amount of uranium required to start developing the bomb, which may take about three months.

Israel has threatened Iran with military options if Tehran reaches a point close to the "nuclear threshold," meaning that it has enough fuel to produce an atomic bomb.

Tel Aviv coordinates with the US administration to pressure Iran if negotiations fail and Tehran continues its nuclear activities.



Australia's Albanese Claims Election Victory, Riding Anti-Trump Wave

Supporters of Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese react at a Labor party election night event, after local media projected the Labor Party's victory, on the day of the Australian federal election, in Sydney, Australia, May 3, 2025. REUTERS/Hollie Adams
Supporters of Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese react at a Labor party election night event, after local media projected the Labor Party's victory, on the day of the Australian federal election, in Sydney, Australia, May 3, 2025. REUTERS/Hollie Adams
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Australia's Albanese Claims Election Victory, Riding Anti-Trump Wave

Supporters of Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese react at a Labor party election night event, after local media projected the Labor Party's victory, on the day of the Australian federal election, in Sydney, Australia, May 3, 2025. REUTERS/Hollie Adams
Supporters of Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese react at a Labor party election night event, after local media projected the Labor Party's victory, on the day of the Australian federal election, in Sydney, Australia, May 3, 2025. REUTERS/Hollie Adams

Australia’s Anthony Albanese claimed a historic second term as prime minister on Saturday in a dramatic comeback against once-resurgent conservatives that was powered by voters' concerns about the influence of US President Donald Trump.

Peter Dutton, leader of the conservative Liberal party, conceded defeat and the loss of his own seat - echoing the fate of Canada's conservatives and their leader whose election losses days earlier were also attributed to a Trump backlash.

Supporters at Labor’s election party in Sydney cheered and hugged each other as Albanese claimed victory and said his party would form a majority government. "Our government will choose the Australian way, because we are proud of who we are and all that we have built together in this country," Albanese told supporters, Reuters reported.

"We do not need to beg or borrow or copy from anywhere else. We do not seek our inspiration from overseas. We find it right here in our values and in our people," he added.

Albanese would be the first Australian prime minister to win a consecutive term in two decades. He said Australians had voted for fairness and "the strength to show courage in adversity and kindness to those in need".

The Australian Electoral Commission website projected Labor would win 81 of 150 seats in the House of Representatives, increasing its majority in parliament, with 68% of the vote counted.

Dutton - whose Liberals had been leading in opinion polls as recently as February until he became dogged with comparisons to Trump - said he had phoned Albanese to congratulate him.

"We didn't do well enough during this campaign. That much is obvious tonight, and I accept full responsibility for that," Dutton said in a televised speech.

The former policeman with a reputation for being tough on crime and immigration said he had spoken to Labor's candidate in the seat of Dickson he had held for two decades, and congratulated her on her success.

"We have been defined by our opponents in this election which is not the true story of who we are" Dutton said, promising the party would rebuild.

Cost-of-living pressures and concerns about Trump's volatile policies had been among the top issues on voters' minds, opinion polls showed.

"If you sling enough mud it will stick," said Liberal Senator for the Northern Territory Jacinta Price, whose comments that her party would "make Australia great again" had fuelled comparisons to Trump's own "Make America Great Again" slogan.

"You made it all about Trump," she said on ABC. Dutton had said he would appoint Price to a ministry of government efficiency, one of several echoes of Trump's policies.

"Losing Peter Dutton is a huge loss," she added.

Opposition Liberal Party spokesman, Senator James Paterson, defended the conservative campaign, which he said was negatively affected by "the Trump factor".

"It was devastating in Canada for the conservatives ... I think it has been a factor here, just how big a factor will be determined in a few hours' time," he earlier told ABC.

Earlier, as counting got under way, Labor Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the government had been "in all sorts of trouble" at the end of 2024 but got back into the contest because of Albanese's strong campaign performance, policies that addressed concerns about the cost of living, and the Trump effect.

As the results started emerging, he told ABC the projected victory was "a win for the ages”. Albanese "has pulled off one of the great political victories since federation,” he said.

The results were "absolutely unbelievable", Labor supporter Melinda Adderley, 54, said through her tears at the election party.