UN Nuclear Watchdog Reports Scant Progress in Standoff with Iran

The Iranian flag waves in front of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) headquarters, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, in Vienna, Austria May 23, 2021. (Reuters)
The Iranian flag waves in front of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) headquarters, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, in Vienna, Austria May 23, 2021. (Reuters)
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UN Nuclear Watchdog Reports Scant Progress in Standoff with Iran

The Iranian flag waves in front of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) headquarters, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, in Vienna, Austria May 23, 2021. (Reuters)
The Iranian flag waves in front of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) headquarters, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, in Vienna, Austria May 23, 2021. (Reuters)

Iran has not credibly answered the UN nuclear watchdog's long-standing questions on the origin of uranium particles found at three undeclared sites despite a fresh push for a breakthrough, the agency said in a report seen by Reuters on Monday.

The lack of progress could set up a new diplomatic clash with the West when the International Atomic Energy Agency's 35-nation Board of Governors meets next week. If Western powers seek a resolution criticizing Tehran it could deal a further blow to stalled efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal.

The fresh quarterly IAEA report detailing Iran's continued failure to provide satisfactory answers raises pressure on the United States and its allies to take action against Iran at the board meeting, since Tehran and the IAEA announced a renewed push in March to clear things up by now.

"Iran has not provided explanations that are technically credible in relation to the Agency's findings at those locations," the report said, adding: "The Agency remains ready to engage without delay with Iran to resolve all of these matters."

A separate quarterly IAEA report seen by Reuters said Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 60%, close to the roughly 90% that is weapons grade and in a form that can be enriched further, is estimated to have grown by 9.9 kg to 43.1 kg.

That amounts to slightly more than what the IAEA calls a "significant quantity", defined as "the approximate amount of nuclear material for which the possibility of manufacturing a nuclear explosive device cannot be excluded".

A senior diplomat cautioned, however, that in practice it would take more than 55 kg of uranium enriched to 60% to make one bomb because some material is wasted during enrichment.

"As of the moment you enrich you lose material," he said.

Western powers fear Iran is getting closer to being able to sprint towards producing a nuclear bomb if it chose to, though Iran says its intentions are entirely peaceful.



Mohsen Rezaei: Israel Planned to Overthrow Iranian State in 7-Stage Plan

 Former IRGC Commander-in-Chief Mohsen Rezaei during the televised interview on Tuesday 
 Former IRGC Commander-in-Chief Mohsen Rezaei during the televised interview on Tuesday 
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Mohsen Rezaei: Israel Planned to Overthrow Iranian State in 7-Stage Plan

 Former IRGC Commander-in-Chief Mohsen Rezaei during the televised interview on Tuesday 
 Former IRGC Commander-in-Chief Mohsen Rezaei during the televised interview on Tuesday 

Former IRGC Commander-in-Chief Mohsen Rezaei said on Wednesday that Iran exposed a 7-stage Israeli plot designed to overthrow the state.

In a televised interview, Rezaei said his country will set the timing of any future war with Israel and warned against falling into “the trap of negotiation” with the US on the country’s nuclear program.

Rezaei, now a member of the Expediency Council, unveiled a new account of the 12-day war with Israel that started on June 13.

“We shot down 80 Israeli drones during the recent aggression, and the wreckage of 32 of them is now in Iran's possession, including highly advanced Hermes and Heron drones. Our radars have recorded 80 hits,” he said.

Commenting on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's meeting with US President Donald Trump in Washington this week, the Iranian General said, “It was an organized advertisement campaign in the White House.”

Following the 12-day war, Rezaei said due to popular pressure, the US and Israel had to launch a campaign claiming they won the war.

“Israel and America were defeated,” he said, adding that to cover this defeat, Trump had to lash out at some international media outlets like CNN, saying, 'You are lying, we won.’”

He said to examine whether Israel won, one should look at what the war has achieved and what it cost.

“According to an Israeli Finance Ministry report, the 12-day war cost approximately $20 billion. In just 12 days, the Israeli military used US-made THAAD missiles equivalent to two years of manufacture,” he said.

Seven Targets

Rezaei then uncovered a plan, in which Israel, in coordination with the US, spent over a year in training from Greece to the Mediterranean with an aim to first assassinate the Leader of the Iranian Revolution and Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) figures, then trigger nationwide chaos, infiltrate counter-revolutionaries into Tehran, divide Iran into several regions, and attack Iranian military and economic infrastructure.

“Their final goal,” Rezaei stated, “was controlling skies from the Mediterranean to China’s borders.”

However, the Iranian official said their scheme collapsed spectacularly: Israeli strikes on the site of the SNSC meeting caused “zero casualties” due to strategic relocation, while border incursions failed utterly, he said.

Rezaei assessed that the enemy achieved only 10% of their first-stage objectives, while suffering 65% at the military level and 80% at the political and social levels.

Commenting on Iran’s indirect negotiations with the US, he said military readiness must go in line with the diplomatic efforts but added that “the field must be ahead of diplomacy. That's what the Houthis did.”

Strategic Opportunity

On Monday, Trump said he would like to lift sanctions on Iran at some point.

And in an eye-catching post on X suggesting Tehran sees economic ties as a potential element in any deal, President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Monday that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei believed American investors can come to Iran with “no obstacles to their activities.”

Reuters reported on Tuesday that Iranian rulers face two unpalatable options: renewed strikes if they do not surrender their nuclear ambitions and humiliation at home if they do.

That means they may try to make talks drag out, unwilling to fully quit their nuclear project and presenting a difficulty for a US president impatient for a deal and its economic benefits for the US, Western and regional officials say.

For Israel, the fallback option is clear, the person familiar with Netanyahu's strategy said: a policy of sustained containment through periodic strikes to prevent any nuclear resurgence.

In the wake of its air war against Iran, Israel has reasserted itself as the region's unrivalled military power, more willing than ever to use force and more capable of doing so with precision and relative impunity.

Washington, meanwhile, is hedging its bets. While Israeli and US hawks still hope for regime change in Tehran, Trump appears unwilling to shoulder the huge military, political and economic costs that such a project would demand.

Trump rapidly claimed victory after the US attack. And while he has said he would consider bombing Iran again if it continued to enrich uranium to worrisome levels, he has portrayed the June 22 operation as a bold, surgical one-off.

The US may support Israel’s military actions, even supplying advanced weaponry, but it is betting mainly on economic pressure and diplomatic leverage to force Tehran’s hand. The result is a fragile standoff, with no clear endgame, the diplomats said.

Netanyahu sees a fleeting strategic opportunity, one that demands acceleration, not hesitation, the source close to him said. In his calculus, the time to strike harder is now, before Iran regains its footing, the source said.

Iran's air defenses are battered, its nuclear infrastructure weakened, its proxies decapitated and its deterrence shaken. But Tehran’s window to regroup and rebuild will grow with time, says the person familiar with Netanyahu's strategy.

So for Netanyahu, this is unfinished business -- strategic, existential, and far from over, the diplomats and the two Middle East officials said.