From Washington’s point of view, its adversaries appear weak and this is the moment to be more aggressive, from Asia to Ukraine to Iran. The strange dispute about the Chinese spy balloon is the latest example. It is worth noting that Beijing issued a statement of regret about the balloon entering American skies among other signs that China wants to stop the downward spiral in bilateral relations.
The former Chinese ambassador to Washington, soon to be Foreign Minister, in his last speech in America in December called for mutually advantageous cooperation, not confrontation. The Chinese worry about their ailing economy after the covid pandemic and severe American trade restrictions. It is no coincidence that their Vice Premier was in Davos last month to stress that globalization must continue and China welcomes foreign investment. Meanwhile, some Chinese companies are moving to Mexico to keep their access to markets in America.
In reality, the spy balloon should not be a crisis. We live in an age of satellite and cyber spying, and of course America spies on China. An American military official told The Washington Post last week that the spy balloon could not in reality discover any important military secrets. Washington acknowledged that other spy balloons came over American territory before, although this one was more visible and so it became a political issue.
After trying to manage the issue quietly in diplomatic channels for two days, the Biden administration cancelled Secretary Blinken’s trip at the last minute because of the uproar in the American capital. The Chinese, who had indicated that Blinken would meet President Xi, reacted with a quiet statement that simply said it was an American decision.
The Americans are doing more than cancelling visits. Late in January the Biden administration convinced Japan and the Netherlands to instruct their companies to apply the same American restrictions on exports of semiconductor manufacturing technology to China. Now Washington is pressuring the government in South Korea to also restrict computer chip technology exports to China.
Meanwhile, last week the Biden administration reached an agreement with India to increase cooperation in the field of high technology and advanced weapons. The purpose of this agreement and the trade restrictions is to enable America to surpass Chinese high-technology capabilities. And at the same time, the American Defense Secretary announced an agreement with the Philippines for the Americans to build four new military sites in the northern island of Luzon near Taiwan.
More than the Trump administration, the Biden administration exploits America’s traditional network of alliances and partners to convince, and if needed, to pressure other states to help contain China. Beijing lacks a similar list of allied states.
Likewise, the Biden administration escalated its intervention in the Ukraine war last month. The decision to send tanks, and to convince Germany to send tanks, was a step no capital had expected a year ago. In addition, the Biden administration is providing Ukraine with new artillery that can hit targets twice as far away as the previous artillery systems provided; they will be better able to hit targets with artillery inside Russia.
Washington is not so worried as before about a Russian nuclear weapons response. And at the same time, under pressure from Washington the Turkish airport service provider Havas has finally informed Russian aviation companies that it will stop servicing commercial airplanes with America parts to comply with American sanctions. Turkey is an extremely important outlet for Russian travelers because of sanctions at airports throughout the West. Like China, Russia so far has been unable to respond to the escalations in American pressure.
Finally, America’s third big enemy, Iran, also appears weak in the face of escalations from America’s ally Israel. The drone attack on Esfahan resulted only in an Iranian letter to the Secretary General at the United Nations. This is the smallest possible diplomatic response, and the Palestinians can advise Tehran from their experience of the anticipated result.
Similarly, the Israelis last week destroyed an Iranian military convoy at Albukamel in eastern Syria and Iran again did nothing. Despite weekly Israeli strikes, including some that now violate Iranian sovereignty, Iran is avoiding military responses, especially when it watches the biggest American-Israeli joint military exercises in history. Unlike Washington, Tehran is ready to work gradually and the steady advances in Tehran’s nuclear weapons program are increasing the likelihood of American-Israeli military attack.
Is Biden restoring American military power to rule the world? The short answer is not like Bush the son. He won’t send an army into Iran or Ukraine. But Washington is becoming more belligerent. I worry that Washington will by mistake cross a red-line and trigger an angry response from a weak but desperate adversary. And we know from the experience of 2003 in Iraq that Washington can overestimate its capabilities.
