A senior Arab diplomat provided a rational assessment of the situation in Lebanon. He made the assessment away from the local media, effective and ineffective Lebanese politicians and their expectations from the recent agreement that restored diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Lebanese officials often speak of “conspiracies” when it comes to expectations from foreign powers and the extent to which they can impact local Lebanese affairs. They tend to overlook the strategic aspects of Riyadh’s policies in the Arab region.
Riyadh, without a shadow of a doubt, believes that any agreement cannot be built on the ruins of the interests of another Arab country, no matter the desired results that are expected of it. Saudi Arabia boasts a foreign policy legacy and firm course of action that will not be impacted by “narrow or wide” interests.
The influential diplomat dismissed media reports of a French initiative that would see the election of a Lebanese president from the March 8 camp and appointment of a prime minister from the current opposition.
The diplomat believes that the election of a president is only the tip of the iceberg of the several problems Lebanon has been grappling with for years and that are now threatening its political composition that on the surface is based on “consensual democracy”, while in reality is based on sectarian balances.
Lebanon has long suffered from flaws in its internal and external balances that has led it to the situation where its economic resources are constantly being depleted. The situation has also alienated its natural friends, whom it could traditionally rely on to help out of its crises and make up for its financial imbalances.
Visitors of the senior diplomat often leave meetings with him with a clear conviction that Saudi Arabia will not interfere in any deal over the positions of president and prime minister. They also realize that it has not named preferred candidates for any vacancy in Lebanon.
Rather, the Kingdom will deal with any understanding based on what it believes are Lebanon’s interests and relations with its Arab surroundings. If it believes it has set off on the right path, then it will not hesitate to support and help the Lebanese people out of their crisis.
However, if some officials continue to make the same old choices, while expecting new results, then Riyadh will simply sit back, and watch developments unfold.
Many believe that a deal over the president and prime minister will not be any different than what happened after the Doha agreement that ended up with the ouster of former PM Saad Hariri from his post while he was meeting with then US President Barack Obama in Washington. They also believe that it will not be any different than what happened after the deal that saw the election of Michel Aoun as president.
While some officials are focusing their attention on presidential candidates, others prefer to focus on Lebanon’s future and role. If an agreement is reached over its future and role, then the name of a president will be a small detail in the greater picture.
Observers of Riyadh’s moves in Beirut are realizing that it is drawing up the clear broad strokes of its policy that is based on the actual interests of the Lebanese people. There can be no regional or international deal that would compromise these interests. The illness ailing Lebanon has become clear and the treatment is obvious. Riyadh had been clear in saying it would not cover for any Lebanese government that was formed by a regional agenda that goes against national and Arab interests.
Lebanon needs an economic salvation plan that would take it out of the downward spiral of financial and economic collapse. The diplomat said such a plan cannot be implemented without the cooperation of all Lebanese parties and their adoption of a real national diagnosis of the illness and its treatment.
Such a treatment should not stem from narrow factional interests. The country should not be allowed to be dragged towards axes that are alien to its natural geographic and cultural positions. The Lebanese, therefore, cannot search for “imported” solutions that are dictated from abroad.
Moreover, the diplomat believes that the Lebanese opposition is squandering a historic opportunity to create change. He is shocked at its inability to reach common understandings that would allow it to introduce the desired change. The opposition would have the ability to impose conditions if it could come up with a united vision. The other camp would have been merciless if the roles were reversed, the way the opposition is being too lenient with it right now.
