Some cities have a way of delivering messages. They prompt the visiting journalist to wait before believing everything that they hear from decision-makers and their opponents - if they exist. It is as if it is announcing that its real date is always being postponed - its date with a normal state, institutions, rule of law and real development.
I was deluded in believing that I would receive such a message while I was visiting Sanaa, Baghdad or Khartoum. I often felt that Khartoum was awaiting the arrival of the night so that it could unload its sorrows in the Nile, just as Baghdad unloaded its pain in the Tigris.
It was clear that the countries were living under the rule of the strong man. But the city was whispering that the country was suffering from a weakness that goes beyond the state to reach the entire map itself. The rising poverty, oppression, corruption and failures only fan the embers that are under the ashes and waiting for the right opportunity to become enflamed.
The National Revolutionary Command Council acted as the front of a man. The party was of the same cloth. Coexistence between the two forces was difficult and doomed to fail. We saw this between the president and sheikh in Yemen and the president and vice president in Iraq.
We saw this again between the president and sheikh in Sudan. In his last years, Hassan al-Turabi never hesitated to inform the visiting journalist that he was the sheikh who had summoned the general (Omar al-Bashir) and sent him to the palace after he had requested that he be sent to Kober Prison to conceal the details of the coup.
The country appeared vast, but during the moment of truth, it would implode and break apart because it cannot handle two men. The strong one had come from the barracks and does not acknowledge the civilians’ right to partnership in rule. Saddam Hussein was very wary of generals and party barons. Governments and parliaments would change throughout the decades, while bread remained difficult to attain or the people no less fearful.
The US invasion of Iraq paved the way for the series of earthquakes of the current century. The “Arab Spring” would erupt in the next decade. Fearful over its identity, Egypt turned to its military. Syria was aflame. Moammar al-Gaddafi and Ali Abdullah Saleh were killed. The Spring was late in arriving in Sudan, but it got there in the end.
How difficult are our countries. They became independent, but did not find a state that would protect them from internal collapses and foreign meddling. Yemen’s modern history is as complex as its terrain. Iraq’s modern history is as stormy as its bloody history. Sudan’s modern history is lost between its military and civilians, even as it spent the majority of its time ruled by “saviors” coming from the barracks.
Two years after Sudan's independence in 1956, General Ibrahim Abboud led a coup that overthrew the civilian government. In 1964, another coup would end his rule. The civilians will fight long over the constitution and its references. In 1969, the military would oust the civilians who were squabbling over power. Jaafar Muhammad al-Nimeiry would remain in power for several years, but a coup would end his rule in 1985.
Parties and syndicates would claim that they had learned from the past and that they would avoid falling into the old trap. In 1989, a coup led by Omar al-Bashir would oust Prime Minister Sadiq al-Mahdi. Bashir would remain in power for decades during which South Sudan would choose independence.
Bashir partnered with al-Turabi and then they became rivals. In both cases, Sudan came out the loser. Bashir would celebrate coming out on top, believing he was immune from revolts. In 2019, he was ousted in a coup by two generals who had emerged from his shadow: Abdul Fattah al-Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti.
Talks then focused on a transitional phase and civilian rule, but the two generals partnered up to oust the civilian government in 2021.
The recent months were rife with maneuvers between the army and civilians and the army and the “military” personnel. The recent weeks showed just how vast the divide had grown between Burhan, head of the transitional council, and Hemedti, his deputy, and between the army, led by Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Hemedti. The RSF are a paramilitary force that had succeeded in receiving official recognition of their legitimacy.
It was unlikely that Hemedti would have accepted for his Sudanese version of the “Popular Mobilization Forces” to become integrated in the army, not only because it was born in Darfur and the Janjaweed, but also because it had transformed into a force that controls mines in Sudan and boasts foreign relations.
The tensions finally came to a head on April 15 and the conflict erupted. The two former partners became bitter enemies. The battle is merciless and has moved to cities and neighborhoods. This goes beyond hatred between two men. Countries are evacuating their citizens from Sudan, meaning terrible days are to come.
Sudan is a huge country. It cannot commit suicide alone. It is a fragile country, neighbored by seven others, some of which are also fragile and could become engulfed in conflict. Sudan is a diverse country with several “armies”, affiliations and hatreds.
The absence of a unified army on this vast map will entice some parties to join small armies that resemble them. Some militias don’t even need to declare their formation because they are already there. They just need to remove the disguise they have been wearing. The transition to civil war really doesn’t need that many matches to ignite it.
The scene in Sudan is frightening and the regional scene is complex. International competition over Africa and Sudan stokes the battles. Talk of the Wagner Group and others like it is no longer being whispered behind closed doors.
The conflict in Sudan raises questions over the waters of the Nile and the Red Sea vital waterway. It also raises fears that the conflict may expand to neighboring countries and that al-Qaeda and ISIS could find a foothold to fortify themselves in Sudan. The conflict will also produce new waves of refugees and displaced people.
The region and world have an actual interest in saving Sudan from the complete suicide of its people and area. The flames, should they grow larger, cannot be doused. A legitimate state must be formed to prevent the conflict in Sudan from spreading further and stretching beyond its borders.
Unfortunately, the two generals are acting as though Sudan had already reached the point of no return. Burhan said that the only way he will stand down is if he were killed and Hemedti also thinks the same way. It is either the palace or the coffin for either of them. They are battling on the edge of a volcano. Containing the emissions of the Ukrainian volcano is much simpler than containing those of Sudan should the conflict blow up even more.
