The anticipated clash between Iran and the West has become a joke. The US and Israel have failed to follow through on their threats, and Iran has continued to develop its nuclear program unconcerned... Why is it a joke? Because it stands in the face of reality, from President Bush’s threats to Iran, to Obama, Trump, and finally Biden, who admitted last November that the nuclear program is now dead.
Thus, it would be fair to say that Iran has been more honest and that the US and its allies were more mendacious: they did not strike, and they did nothing when Trump left the agreement and Iran ramped up enrichment and installed thousands of centrifuges, producing large quantities of enriched uranium that suffice to make a nuclear bomb. Indeed, it has avoided confrontation despite its constant harassment...
Now Iran has the technical know-how and a stockpile of enriched uranium large enough to build one bomb. As for why they haven’t made it, that can be explained by two things. First, its late Supreme Leader Khomeini considered the bomb prohibited by religious law. Second, it does not want to jeopardize its progress, which is why it decided to respond with openness and to deprive its enemies of justifications to attack it, fortifying its position in a shifting international and regional scene.
Let us admit that Iranian policy is complex and intelligent. The Iranians are always mindful of regional and global developments. By complexity, we mean that Iran creates the appropriate conditions rather than waiting for them. By intelligence, we mean that it makes precise calculations at every turn and knows when to back down so as not to squander all that it has achieved. This is evident from its ongoing talks with the US, which are being mediated by Oman and comes after the US had recognized that Iran had violated the 2015 nuclear deal and that a new agreement (more favorable to Iran) is now needed.
In fact, the US leadership is convinced that regional and international circumstances demand that it retreats and that the choice now is between bad and worse. It would be bad if Iran acquired the knowledge and materials needed to make a bomb, but it would be worse if Iran made one. In the latter event, a war that the US does not favor under the current circumstances would break out. Washington’s insistence on ignoring Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, and his warning of military action, might indicate that the US is now keen on avoiding the worst. But the pressing question remains: Why did the US lose its bet with Iran? How will it deal with a nuclear-armed Iran, and what is the Arab position regarding all of these developments?
First: the US lost when it was a unipolar power, by invading Iraq instead of Iran. Even worse, it cooperated with Iran in both Iraq and Afghanistan, ignoring the network of militias Iran was building in the Arab world to surround Israel and the countries allied with the United States. This led many in the Arab world to conclude that the US made Iran. However, the reality is that the US believed liberalism would be enough to overthrow the Iranian regime after the states of the region turned into Western-style democracies.
When the liberal project collapsed, Obama concluded that Iran controls its Shiite militias, and that this made it worth talking to, while the Arab countries do not exert control over the Sunni militias. This stupid American theory assumes that the moderate Arab regimes made ISIS and other similar groups, while the reality is that terrorism is the result of Washington’s stupid policies and its disregard for the sectarian violence backed by Iran that was giving rise to the violence of Sunni militias.
Second: The regional and international geopolitical situation changed. The Ukraine war gave Iran the chance to guarantee Russian support in exchange for Iranian military support. This meant that no action could be taken against Iran through the UN Security Council and enjoy international legitimacy. Moreover, the competition between the US and China has allowed Iran to expand its ties with China, as well as to lure the Chinese into playing major roles in the region by conceding to Chinese mediation, as seen with the recent Iranian-Saudi rapprochement. Iran believes that making concessions at one stage will stave off graver threats in the future. It uses this tactic within the framework of the broader strategy of reinforcing its gains so long as it has concessions that could further its interests at its disposal.
Third: The US administration has finally exhausted every option in its effort to curb Iran’s program except military action, but to no avail. For its part, Iran rattled the US through its calculated openness to Arab states. This came after the Arabs realized that the US and its allies were hopeless. They do not care about their allies, so let them pull out their thorns with themselves...
This is a major blow to the West in itself. Their Chinese competitors have enhanced their standing in a pivotal region for global trade and energy supply; their ally Israel now faces the threat of a nuclear attack from Iran, and the Arabs will also insist on building their own peaceful nuclear programs and acquiring the knowledge and technology for themselves, as will Türkiye. This would mean the end of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, with all the damaging repercussions that implies.
Faced with this state of affairs, the Biden administration has no choice but to engage in dialogue aimed at preventing Iran from further enrichment. However, it does not want to turn its attention to the region, which it does not see as a priority now. Instead, its ultimate priorities are defeating Russia and surrounding China in the Pacific. Since Iran knows this, it sees the negotiations as an opportunity to maximize its gains and ensure that the US does not see war as the only option.
Here, the Arab position seems aligned with the shifts underway in the region due. Indeed, the Arabs are convinced that war is not in their interests, especially since Arab polities collapsed following the Arab Spring. Nothing brings them together anymore, and the priority now is to close ranks and, if possible, to face challenges more difficult than those of the past. In order for these countries to avoid war, they must be ready for it. The negotiations with Iran could give them some breathing room, allowing them to recoup and develop an Arab vision for developing their military capacity and building alliances and commercial interests that tip the balance of power.
And since America is trying to add to the signatories of the Abraham Accords to create a counterweight to Iran, these Arab countries must insist on the Arab Peace Plan. Indeed, Israel accepting the deal would confuse Iran and make its expansion in the region a thing of the past. The Arabs, despite seeming weak, do have some strength left. Their ongoing changes will not stand in their way if they understand them well, cooperate, and unite. Tragedy awaits if they don’t.
