The most accurate way to see the military operations in Jenin, West Bank, and Gaza, is that they were conducted during a domestic standstill in Israel. Benjamin Netanyahu feels the impact of this standstill particularly sharply, as well do the Palestinians and the impotent and worn-out Palestinian Authority. The only explanation that one could reasonably ascribe to the military operations is that, in Netanyahu’s view, these operations could pave a way out of Israel’s impasse and the five-dimensional blockade he finds himself trapped behind - or that he trapped himself in.
The first dimension to this blockade is his insistence on forging a political alliance with the Israeli far-right. Since he cannot meet any of his fanatical allies’ other demands, this alliance has forced him to break the backs of Palestinians and violently clamp down on them, as he is doing in Gaza and the West Bank. The second dimension is his deep fear of becoming a second Ehud Olmert and being sent to prison because of the crimes he has been charged with. The third dimension is the exacerbation of Israel’s unprecedented domestic crisis after opposition to his government’s judicial reforms gave rise to mass protests. Indeed, this crisis became even more acute after the Knesset’s Constitution Committee approved the draft judicial reform law last week despite its previous vague statements suggesting a freeze. Netanyahu’s attempts to divert attention towards the Palestinian question and terrorism, which he hoped would leave the Israeli public rallying around the flag, do not seem to have deterred the protests. Fourth, we have Netanyahu’s desperation to avoid a breakdown of the Abrahamic Accords. Rather, he is keen on building on these accords at a time when his policies and his government are doing more to undermine them than anyone or anything else. Finally, we have his issues with the US administration, which is opposed to his policies and alliances, which is accompanied by the fierce opposition of the majority of American Jews against Netanyahu and his government. This majority, be it slim or overwhelming, has had major implications for relations between Washington and Tel Aviv, as well as Israel itself.
Conducting military operations against the Palestinians is Neyanhu’s only off-ramp. His current approach accurately reflects how he has maneuvered and defended from the front over the past decade. This strategy can also clearly be seen in his positions on the forgotten peace process, illegal settlements, which have destroyed the two-state solution, or what is left of it, and the war in Syria, which have had negative repercussions for Israel and left it fighting Iran on two fronts: Lebanon and in Syria.
The conclusion that can be drawn from Netanyahu’s policies, especially those adopted by his violent and fanatical current government, is that their objective is to ensure a divorce with peace and Israel’s democracy (albeit one that only the Jewish population enjoy), as shown by its judicial reform packages that seek to limit the powers of the Israeli Supreme Court and his acquiescence to his coalition partners’ demands, allowing them to form armed gangs of settlers that attack Palestinian villages.
Netanyahu, who has threatened to set Lebanon back one hundred years, has, turned Israel back from a country that could boast about its democracy and being a state of law, into a country that allows for the formation of armed militias and tolerates their actions. All of these policies suggest that he has no national strategy to speak of. Indeed, his actions demonstrate that he has been pursuing his interests, which left him so desperate to stay in power that he allied with fanatics whom he disagrees with and who are pushing his country to the brink of civil war.
In Palestine, the scene is no less devastating. The Palestinian Authority is now almost isolated from the majority of its people, both in the Palestinian interior and the diaspora. Twenty-somethings see no hope for a solution that could pave the way out of the difficult situations they have been put in. This generation has become disconnected from traditional political and armed factions; their only objective is to put an end to the occupation, siege, unemployment, and rampant corruption that define their lives. Meanwhile, the rupture between the PA and the youths has become irreparable, as it is unable to meet their aspirations and achieve their political, security, or social goals. Armed groups have arisen, most of which may not be controlled by known political or military parties.
Palestine has been suspended in time for years. Without getting into who was responsible for its collapse, we can say that the clock stopped moving in Palestine with the breakdown of the Oslo Accords. Nonetheless, without a realistic peace process, Oslo means nothing, which is why we are in this situation.
Netanyahu stuck to his guns. He stubbornly continued to pursue a cruel expansion of the occupation and put Palestinians living in the occupied territories under increased strain. When all they see is division, fragmentation, powerlessness, and rampant corruption, when there is politics, what can we expect from the Palestinians? The most optimistic expectations are bitter. Between cycles of violence that at times intensify and then fades at others, the Palestinians are being tortured slowly. If the violence snowballs into a large-scale war between the Palestinians and Israel, it would have serious repercussions for the region. Such a conflict would compel an array of highly determined forces led by Iran and its allies to intervene. This is the trajectory we will remain on for so long as the Netanyahu government remains in power and refuses to back down.
It seems there is no reason to bet on foreign acting ramping up the pressure on Netanyahu and his government. The United States will remain busy with the presidential elections until November 2024. Given their fears of losing right-wing American Jews’ votes, I cannot see the Democrats or the Republicans putting real pressure on Netanyahu. As for the European Union, its member states have trouble agreeing on just about anything. Even if they were to agree on pressuring Israel, it would take a long time for such a consensus to translate itself politically. Russia remains preoccupied with its war in Ukraine and its domestic problems. Even if it wanted to intervene, China’s influence on this question remains. The last external factor, Arab countries applying pressure, should not be belittled, and they will find it difficult to remain on the sidelines like neutral observers.
Is Netanyahu using his gains to make a gamble? Is he putting the future of Israeli ties to the Arab world in jeopardy? We will only have an answer once the limits and threats of the Israeli right’s madness become clear. As well as the Palestinians, this government has put Israel itself in a perilous position. The risks it has engendered by this government could give domestic actors, namely the sizable liberal opposition that has begun to see the link between its struggle for democracy and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a window of opportunity. The recent attacks on Gaza and Jenin demonstrated how interconnected Israeli democracy and the Palestinian conflict are. Indeed, Israel dropped eight places, becoming the 143 least peaceful place in the world on the 2023 Global Peace Index.
