Sam Menassa

Sam Menassa

The Politics of Uncertainty: War and Non-War

Unpredictability has been an essential part of Donald Trump's method of conducting foreign policy. The American president raises the ceiling of threat, pushes his adversary toward believing he is ready to go further than expected, then opens the door to negotiation or steps back from escalation…

Lebanon and its Underworld

If it is true that identifying those responsible for the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, for the sustained campaign of killings that targeted “March 14” leaders over the years, for the Beirut port explosion, and for the loss of bank deposits threatens civil peace - then what of…

Is Trump Redefining the Relationship with Israel?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to Washington last month again brought the nature of the US-Israeli relationship into focus, amid differences over Gaza, Iran, and the future of the region. The alliance remains strong, yet these developments raise a broader question: Does Donald…

Trumpism After 2028

America's standing in the world has never rested on military and economic power alone. It has also rested on the stability of its institutions, its respect for the orderly transfer of power, and the predictability of its policies—qualities that inspired allies' confidence in American leadership of…

Aoun's Washington Visit: An Opportunity That Leaves No Room for Ambiguity

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun's visit to Washington carries exceptional significance, not because it is the first presidential visit of this level in years, but because it comes at a regional moment in which Lebanon has returned to the forefront of American attention after decades of slipping down…

Sovereignty is No Longer the Goal of Settlements, but One of their Terms

However which way one reads the visit of Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani to Beirut, it restored Lebanese-Syrian relations to their normal course and remains a step of great importance- provided the relationship rests on cooperation and coordination between two independent states. This was…

Will the Memorandum of Understanding Become the Final Agreement Itself?

It has been nearly three weeks since the American-Iranian memorandum of understanding, and nothing in the course of the ongoing negotiations suggests that a final agreement is within reach. That brings the future of this negotiating track back into focus once the sixty-day period the memorandum set…

The Memorandum of Understanding... Unresolved Fears

Why has Iran fought so fiercely for Hezbollah, even to the point of risking its agreement with the United States and making a ceasefire in Lebanon a precondition for the Switzerland talks? Is this insistence tied only to Lebanon's domestic situation, or does it also reflect Iran's broader regional…

Who Has Changed... Washington or Tehran?

Great power politics are governed less by principles or slogans than by interests; the personalities of leaders and their political ambitions can also leave clear imprints on them. In the case of the United States today, the state’s core calculations intersect with President Donald Trump’s style:…

Successful Negotiations Depend on the Return of the State

In Lebanon, debate is widening over the usefulness of continuing direct negotiations with Israel. One political camp rejects them outright, while another calls for withdrawing from them, arguing that they are futile in light of continued Israeli attacks and incursions and the renewed targeting of…