Media outlets are brimming with predictions and analyses about the new US administration’s Middle East policy. Most of it is wishful thinking, with each camp making projections according to their political orientation. The key appointments that President-elect Donald Trump has announced he wants to make so far suggest that he will choose hawks and loyal, trusted friends. The proposed figures tow a harder line than Trump himself, and we can only speculate about how much influence they will yield given his personality and unpredictability.
For the region, what distinguishes this Trump team is its hardline stance towards Iran, which is matched by its absolute support for Israel, giving Benjamin Netanyahu the space he needs to complete his wars in Gaza and Lebanon during the transitional phase that will not end until January 20, by which point he will have to have catered to Trump’s declared intention to end the ongoing wars before then.
The risks of Netanyahu exploiting the transitional phase were bolstered by the despair that has gripped the Biden administration since its resounding defeat at the hands of Trump and the Republicans- the red wave that swept both houses of Congress. The current administration’s frustration will hinder any ability to curb Netanyahu’s adventures in Gaza and Lebanon.
An attack on Iran by Netanyahu is possible despite its repercussions, especially since there is no end to his ongoing wars on Gaza and Lebanon in sight. The Gaza war has achieved what it could after Hamas was dismantled and the Gaza Strip was made all but uninhabitable, and the war on Hezbollah destroyed most of the party's military capabilities, as well as over a third of Lebanon, displacing more than a million people from the south, the Bekaa, and the southern suburbs of Beirut. What more does Netanyahu want? Protecting Israel is an ambiguous slogan that he has been exploited to the last drop, and his military operations now amount to nothing more than collective punishment.
Will Trump and his team turn a blind eye to the expected Israeli adventures or will reign in Netanyahu and heedless his government? The first option seems more likely. In contrast, the Arab Islamic summit held last week in Riyadh sent several messages to Washington and Israel, all of them unequivocally reflecting deep anger at Israel's excesses and military actions, and they went as far as to call for freezing Israel's membership in the United Nations General Assembly. The summit unequivocally denounced the attacks on Iran, stressing the need to force “Israel to respect Iran’s sovereignty and not attack its territory,” as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said.
The most important message was a solid commitment to the two-state solution, which the summit considered the gateway to regional stability. The emphasis on not making decisions regarding Gaza stems purely from a desire to place this issue in the hands of the Palestinian Authority alone, according to the Kingdom’s foreign minister. Highlighting the role of the Palestinian Authority strips the plans for settlements on the day after in Gaza of any legitimacy. These schemes disregard the PA’s role. It also pushed back on any attempt to do away with the idea of establishing a Palestinian state. Here, we are referring to the rhetoric of Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who has talked about Israel re-imposing its sovereignty over the West
Bank, adding that he seeks “a government decision confirming that Israel will work with the Trump administration and the international community to enforce sovereignty with US recognition.”
The demand for the establishment of a Palestinian state will undoubtedly lead to disputes with the Trump administration. The fear is a return to solutions based on improving the economic and living conditions of the Palestinians that deny their right to an independent, demilitarized Palestinian state, and live in peace side by side with Israel. This obstacle the new administration will probably present is likely to be the main obstacle to broadening Arab-Israeli normalization, which is supposed to lead to a permanent and just peace in the region, introducing a phase of prosperity and progress on all levels.
Differences regarding the two-state solution do not mean that the new administration is not serious about wanting to end wars and conflicts; Trump and his team could conclude deals and settlements with Arab partners on a whole host of issues, including matters tied to regional security. Crucially, solutions to these conflicts must be viable, sustainable, and just, and they must not be made at the expense of one party over another.
Solutions imposed by force, cosmetic stitch-ups, and agreements meant to satisfy the powerful at the expense of the weak and their rights, will only fuel new wars; they may be even more horrific and cruel than those of the past. The final statement of the Riyadh Summit warns against stop-gap solutions and explicitly calls for resolving conflicts by creating just and sustained peace. We hope that Washington will heed this call because it can do more than anyone else to achieve this difficult task, provided that it uses American lenses, not Israeli ones.
