How does the US see its role in global politics at least for the remainder of President Donald Trump’s tenure at the White House?
That is the question that following a procedure followed by all presidents since the 1970s the just published National Security Strategy wishes to address.
The new paper is the second such document bearing Trump’s name.
Issued during Trump’s first term as president the first one was in fact produced by the foreign policy and military establishment of the time inherited from previous administrations and didn’t reflect Trump’s unorthodox views. It was three times longer, laden with clichés, politically correct in tone and designed to dance around difficult issues.
The new NSS pretends to reflect Trump’s deeper convictions.
A close reading however might challenge that claim. The paper says US foreign policy should be pragmatist not pragmatic, realistic not realist, principled not idealistic, firm not hardline and restrained not hawkish etc.
One of the key messages of the paper is that the US wishes to reduce its diplomatic footprint by refraining from interference in other nations’ internal affairs.
One must also assume that Trump won’t lecture China on Dalai Lama and the Uighurs putting the focus non-trade, tariffs and deficits.
That’s all well and good.
But does it indicate a lower diplomatic footprint?
Trump has appointed special point-men not only for Middle East as a whole but also for Iran, Iraq, Lebanon and Syria while taking control of the Gaza issue not to mention a broader plan for a putative ending of the Israel-Palestine conflict. Beyond the Middle East Trump has pursued an activist agenda as self-styled peacemaker in numerous places.
He intervened in the latest Indo- Pakistani war and posed as mediator to halt conflict between Afghan Taliban and Pakistan. He also brokered a ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia and sponsored a deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia promising direct US involvement on a long term basis. A similar deal to end the war between Congo-Kinshasa and Rwanda also includes promises of long-term US guarantees.
Trump also adopted a high profile in last summer’s Iran-Israel war by bombing sensitive targets in Iran and then imposing a ceasefire in the teeth of Israeli opposition. He also said he vetoed an Israeli plan to eliminate “Supreme Gide” Ali Khamenei. And, would you describe his demand that the Israeli President should pardon for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as non-interference?
Trump has also adopted a high profile on the war in Ukraine by presenting a detailed “peace plan” that although branded by his critics as too pro-Russia pushes the backs of both Vladimir Putin and Volodymir Zelensky to the wall.
Trump’s public interference in elections most recently in Argentina, Ecuador and Honduras does not look like a low-profile posture either. Nor was his call on Brazilian President Lula da Saliva to release former President Jair Bolsonaro from prison low profile.
Add to that Trump’s use of force against Venezuelan and Colombian participation in smuggling drugs to the US and you get a signal that he intends to reinvigorate the Monroe Doctrine according to which Latin America is a backyard if not glacis for the United States.
The new NSS paper reflects that by indicating Washington’s determination to limit China’s economic presence in Central and Southern America.
The paper also re-states Trump’s harsh criticism of the European Union and claims that Europe is no longer what it was without saying what it is that Europe was. The implication is that Europe is now less white, less Christian, less capitalistic and more Afro-Asian, Muslim and socialistic with leaders that in his Politico interview Trump labeled “stupid”.
European commentators have interpreted that as Trump’s plan to leave NATO.
However, let’s not forget that NATO nations account for 80 per cent of the American arms exports while Trump regards a massive expansion of the US arms industry as vital.
The NSS paper reflects Trump’s view that the aim of foreign and security policy should be greater prosperity for the US and its allies and partners. In that vein, US ambassadors are instructed to focus on economic issues and act as promoters of US business abroad.
That breaks the American tradition of letting business do its business abroad confident that American goods and services can succeed on their own. That’s was why the US is the only industrial county never to have had a state-owned oil company.
The paper reasserts Trump’s hope of re-industrialization on a massive scale backed by a pro-active foreign trade policy that is bound to heighten competition with China. Interestingly, Trump does not regard China or Russia as enemies but as rivals and competitors.
In judging the paper let’s not forget that Trump is unlikely to be bound by any ideological scheme worked out in think-tanks. Houdini-like he wiggled out of the Heritage Foundation’s “Project 2025 Mandate for Leadership” published in 2024 and hailed as a blueprint for Trump’s second term.
Obviously one should read the NSS paper. But it would be a mistake to regard it as a gospel to Trump’ future behavior. The best advice to all those concerned is read and listen what Trump and his team say and write but wait and see what Trump himself does.
Trump cannot be bound by any manifesto.
He reminds one of Cole Porter’s lyrics for a Woody Godfrey song:
Oh, give me land, lots of land under the starry sky above
Don’t fence me in
Let me straddle on my old saddle
Under the Western skies
Don’t fence me in!
