US President Donald Trump’s address to Congress, the longest in American history at 100 minutes, was made after the emergency Arab Summit in Cairo. The Summit had endorsed Egypt’s plan for the reconstruction of Gaza, firmly rebuffed the displacement of Palestinians from the enclave, proposed the formation of a technocratic committee to overseen by the Palestinian Authority to administer Gaza, reaffirmed that peace on the basis of a two-state solution remains the strategic objective of the Arab state, and called for the deployment of international forces in the West Bank and Gaza.
In his address, Trump doubled down on his suggestion that the US would "take over" Gaza, expel two million Palestinians, and rebuild the Strip without guaranteeing their return. According to CNN, Trump spent no more than 5 percent of his speech on foreign policy, mostly focused on his plans for Canada, Mexico, the Ukraine war, his intention to seize the Panama Canal and Greenland, and the future of NATO.
The Middle East received very little attention. Trump had previously stated, in response to a question about Gaza, that it was up to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, only to then threaten "hell" if all hostages were not released.
His address seemed more like a partisan campaign speech than a traditional presidential address to Congress, as he focused more on attacking a former president rather than his leadership of the world's most powerful nation. Since taking office a few weeks ago, Trump has issued a torrent of executive orders, and he has fired large numbers of government employees and pardoned rioters.
On the foreign policy front, he has frozen aid, upended the United States’ international alliances, and heightened tensions with his country’s traditional allies in Europe and South Asia, such as Japan and South Korea. He also escalated the US trade war with China while extending an olive branch to Russia. When the world’s most powerful country turns its foreign policy on its head and makes sweeping strategic shifts, it is time to fasten seatbelts.
How can this barrage be confronted on multiple fronts? What does Trump want from the Middle East? And how can he be negotiated without the abandonment of Palestinian rights, to prevent the displacement of two million Palestinians and address the escalation in the West Bank, as well as Netanyahu’s policies in both Lebanon and Syria? Another cause for concern is the prospect of a resumption of the war in Gaza, especially if negotiations between Hamas and the US falter, which seems a real possibility according to reports.
The resolutions of the Palestine Summit are, in fact, the minimal foundations for viable negotiations with the United States. While Washington has officially committed to Trump's plan, it has left the door open for further discussions to "bring peace and prosperity to the region," as National Security Council Spokesperson Brian Hughes put it.
As we await these negotiations, the Kremlin announced that it is willing to mediate between Washington and Tehran and help the two sides overcome their differences regarding Iran’s nuclear program. If its mediation succeeds and a deal is reached, it could strain the relationship between Netanyahu and Trump. Israel has its own, distinct approach to Iran and its role in the region, particularly with regard to the future of its nuclear program. Israel does not necessarily align with the White House on this matter; indeed, Israel could reject any nuclear deal between the US and Iran, creating a major rift between Trump and Netanyahu despite the personal chemistry between them.
Moreover, Israel and the US could diverge on other issues, most notably the expansion of the Abraham Accords. While Trump is keen on broadening normalizations, his policies toward the Palestinians remain a major obstacle. An even greater obstacle, however, is Netanyahu himself and his far-right allies, whose unequivocal rejection of the two-state solution and a comprehensive solution to the conflict is irreconcilable with the Arab’s terms, which were reaffirmed at the Summit.
Trump’s approach to expanding the Accords and ensuring a comprehensive resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is rooted in economic and financial incentives and grand bargain. His vision lacks a political framework that acknowledges the facts: seeking Arab normalization without granting Palestinians their rights, and Israel’s recognition of those rights, is a dead end. While the US and Israel have a deep strategic relationship, a unified and coherent Arab initiative could exploit potential rifts to prevent the implementation of the American-Israeli plan for Gaza. This Arab effort could entail promoting Cairo’s reconstruction plan, reinforcing the Arab Peace Initiative, and leveraging the Europeans’ positions.
Negotiations with this US administration will be arduous, but denying Netanyahu and Trump any pretexts to advance their plans is of paramount importance. One key requisite for success is exerting maximum pressure on Hamas and compelling it to leave Gaza. If Hamas maintains a military or political presence there, the war will be resumed. There will be no reconstruction or aid so long as Hamas insists on celebrating "victory," refusing to disarm, and echoing the rhetoric of Hezbollah, which faces a similar predicament in Lebanon.
The scene in Congress is alarming: deep political division, apprehension regarding the repercussions of Trump’s policies, and essentially no coherent vision for the Middle East. It is difficult to determine whether these developments will have a direct impact on the conflict in the region, but peace will probably not come any time soon.
