There are fears that what happened in the Lebanese Parliament on Monday, June 30, could be the start of a process aimed at undercutting the constitutional right of every Lebanese citizen, both residents and expatriates, to equality. Blocking deliberation on a law that would have ensured non-residents' right to vote in their electoral districts constitutes a serious infringement on the expatriates’ rights and undermines their influence on national politics. Indeed, it effectively stripped them of the right to vote for all 128 members of parliament.
The big question now is: Can the "sectarian duo," the Aounists, and the others who benefit from Lebanon's sectarian-quota-based spoil-sharing political system impose this obstacle that would render the country impervious to change? Will they succeed in blocking the votes of the diaspora? In doing so, they would be depriving Lebanon of a rare opportunity for rejuvenation- an opportunity that can only be possible through a parliament that is genuinely representative. The current political era has already exposed the limits of the executive, as well as its capacity and at times the will, to follow through on this endeavor, preventing Lebanon from transitioning from one reality to another.
To begin with, it is essential to recognize the deep roots of the Lebanese diaspora in the collective consciousness. It has long been a prominent feature of curricula and a major theme of Lebanese arts and theater. For decades, people have spoken of Lebanon’s "two wings," with the foreign wing seen as its economic lifeline. Indeed, remittances from abroad have covered deficits in the balance of payments and even secured annual budget surpluses. When the country was deliberately bankrupt and impoverished, the diaspora played a crucial role in preventing a creeping famine that had been hounding Lebanon’s plundered population. They sent an average of $8 billion in remittances annually, the equivalent to 40 percent of Lebanon’s current, post-collapse GDP.
Setting aside the older waves of emigration that began 160 years ago and continued until the Civil War (and for which there are neither official records nor reliable estimates), today’s focus is on the waves that followed the Civil War. Migration intensified in the 1990s and early 2000s, with nearly 1.5 million citizens estimated to have left. They were followed by a wave of youth migration triggered by the disillusionment that followed the betrayal of the 2005 "Independence Intifada," the July 2006 war and its aftermath, and later the financial collapse that began in 2019.
According to available data, more than 1.5 million of those who left as part of these two emigration waves are registered on the electoral roll: roughly 35 percent of the electorate. This makes Lebanon one of the countries with the highest emigration rates in the world. One would assume that this fact calls for heightened concern for equality. What distinguishes the voters of these two waves of emigration are largely well-equated middle-class elites with careers.
Why has this issue suddenly taken center stage? As the policy of deepening Lebanon’s collapse continues, the political establishment has grown acutely aware of the Lebanese diaspora’s influence and impact. The misleading phrase “scattered Lebanese” is now used to describe those who had been forced to leave due to rampant unemployment, plummeting living conditions, the deliberate crash of the national currency, and the plunder of bank deposits- together, these crises plunged many from relative comfort into extreme poverty.
In a calculated move to co-opt this demographic, the corrupt political class organized charm offensives under the banner of “diaspora conferences” and introduced an unprecedented provision in the 2017 electoral law that allocates six parliamentary seats to the diaspora. However, this aberration proved unworkable. Organizing elections across continents presented insurmountable logistical challenges: oversight, campaign finance control, media regulation, and the appointment of representatives were all unworkable.
Moreover, the role of these diaspora MPs remained vague. It was never clear how they would participate in committees or the general assembly. As a result, the implementation of this provision was frozen for the 2018 and 2022 elections, allowing expatriates to vote equally alongside residents. So why the sudden push to revive and implement this flawed formula in the 2026 elections?
In 2022, around 225,000 expatriates registered to vote, and 141,000 of them actually cast ballots. This high turnout had a tangible impact on the result: their broadly oppositional vote succeeded in stripping Hezbollah and its allies of their majority and in blocking the emergence of a new majority that defends the sectarian-quota-based spoil-sharing system.
A simple breakdown of the vote shows that around 30% went to the “October” change lists; a notable share also went to pro-sovereignty forces. Meanwhile, the “Shiite duo” received only 12% of the diaspora vote. The explanation is clear: the expatriates are free of constraints of bribery, threats to livelihood, sectarian pressure, and clientelist coercion. This autonomy has allowed them to go against the entrenched mafia-state apparatus.
It is for this reason that we saw this brazen attempt to manipulate the electoral process, an effort to impose the same coercive conditions that allow the ruling mafia forces to intimidate, blackmail, and falsify the will of the electorate. These same forces that drove the population into exile and looted their deposits are now preventing them from voting like any other citizen.
The same political actors that dominate Lebanon’s political process are paralyzing efforts to disarm illegal militias, obstructing reforms, and reconfiguring power in a manner tailored to their interests, after having led Lebanon into economic ruin, international isolation, and humiliation. Now, they fear that diaspora votes could surpass 400,000, meaning that the 2026 Parliament could mark a fundamental rupture.
This is the mother of all battles. The majority must wage and win the next electoral battle if the next parliament is to be one that launches a true national reformation- a parliament capable of building a state that protects all its citizens, guarantees their rights, and upholds their freedoms.
