Arab-international pressure on Lebanese politicians, both those in government and the opposition, allowed for the election of a president after the seat had been vacant for 26 months.
Through an Arab-international consensus, the opportunity presented by the shifts that swept the region, particularly in Lebanon and Syria, was seized. The opportunity could have been squandered by the narrow-minded maneuvers and political games we typically see from Lebanese politicians.
It is too early for excessive optimism or burdening the new president with resolving decades of accumulated crises. He is an army man, not part of the traditional political elite.
However, Army Commander General Joseph Aoun’s election to Baabda Palace has major implications that go beyond his personal history and role in the military. His election is a real step toward aligning Lebanon with the region's trajectory and fully integrating the country into the region’s future that reflects a regional and international formula favoring sovereign nation-states over non-state actors.
The pressure of Arab and international actors was not solely driven by concern for Lebanon's significance in the region after more than 50 years of its political hijacking. It also stemmed from Arab and international concern for reintegrating Lebanon into its natural environment, allowing it to become a normal state that is governed by elected state authorities, ending the hegemony of non-state actors, and putting Lebanon on track to join the region's path to peace, development, freedom, and international and regional cooperation. Aoun’s inaugural speech explicitly and clearly pushed in this direction.
Joseph Aoun’s election will not comprehensively solve Lebanon’s myriad of problems. Rather, it is the first step needed to enter a new phase, especially since his election follows a ceasefire agreement between Hezbollah and Israel that ended military hostilities between the two sides and stipulated that only state forces would carry arms across the country and Hezbollah would be disarmed, starting with the south. His election comes after Lebanon was liberated from 50 years of Syrian hegemony under both Assads, senior and junior and then Iranian hegemony, with the latter inheriting and extending the control that Syria had had.
After fifty years of tutelage and occupation, it is farcical to lament today’s violations of the constitution and Lebanon’s sovereignty, especially when those who are complaining had colluded with the occupier for decades. The current Arab-international pressures constitute a pathway to reclaiming, not undermining, Lebanon’s sovereignty and constitutional integrity.
More Arab-international diplomatic intervention is needed even after the presidential election, regulating political life in the country and overseeing Lebanese parliamentary deputies as they form a government, appoint a new army commander, and draft the ministerial statement. The goal is to transform this election into a milestone that leads us to a new era, allowing for a rupture with the Syrian and Iranian past and restoring Lebanon’s sovereignty and constitution, as well as allowing its democratic process to function properly.
Foreign actors will oversee all the urgent tasks facing the president and the new government, foremost among them the full implementation of the recent ceasefire agreement. First, their involvement is essential for reclaiming our sovereignty, ensuring that Israel pulls out of the South, sparring Lebanon attacks from the air and the ground, and most importantly, ensuring that only state security and military institutions bear arms, thereby guaranteeing durable security and stability.
Second: the full implementation of the Taif Agreement, which is necessary for reassuring all parties, silencing calls for imagined and self-destructive alternatives, and laying the foundations for political stability- a crucial prerequisite for allowing political and economic reform. Respecting the Taif Agreement also provides a needed guarantee to the international institutions that are expected to provide the assistance Lebanon needs to overcome the financial and economic crisis that has been aggravating since 2019.
Third, Lebanon must return to the fold of moderate Arab states, positioning itself on the right side of history and moving with the tide of the geopolitical shifts sweeping through the region. This is necessary for building a state of institutions and the rule of law, as well as advancing a just regional peace.
The most significant outcome of the new president’s election, the climate surrounding the process, and the preparation that had been for it is that Lebanon has been saved from marginalization or abandonment. This peril had arisen from friendly countries’ fatigue and frustration with the state of Lebanese politics and politicians. The election of Joseph Aoun to the presidency might signal that Lebanon’s era of stagnation is ending and of the cycle of solutions that only reinforce the status quo, which had been the approach of political forces in both the government and the opposition, particularly those who opposed or hesitated to support Aoun’s candidacy for the presidency.
Indeed, some have expressed concern that there may have been implicit arrangements agreed to with Hezbollah regarding its future role and that these deals could curb change in Lebanon. The Shiite duo and others may have finally grasped the significance of the shifts, from Gaza to Damascus and Beirut, that have unfolded in the region, as well as the implications of Tehran's declining influence in the Levant. Hezbollah, now facing existential threats, is being called upon to consider its setbacks and the reasons for them, as well as its role in isolating Lebanon from its Arab and international allies and turning it into a quasi-rogue state.
It needs to conduct a fundamental, comprehensive reassessment of the policies and approaches it has followed for decades. Not only were they irresponsible and harmful to the country, many of its officials’ decisions also played a role in leading the country to ruin. International and regional political changes are anticipated, and they will have profound domestic implications for all countries. Indeed, Donald Trump is about to enter the White House, bringing uncertainty and volatility with him.
