Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is rushing to establish “Greater Israel,” seems to have made unprecedented progress towards realizing his ambitions in 2025.
In Israel, it is becoming increasingly clear that the man understands the rabid fundamentalism that has taken root and spread in Israeli society better than anyone. After most opinion polls had revealed a decline in his popularity over the past couple of years, we now see him turning the situation on its head. He has won Israeli hearts and minds by opting for “genocide” in the Gaza Strip, preparing the groundwork for absorption of the West Bank, expanding his dominance in parts of Syria and Lebanon, and, finally, tightening his grip on the Horn of Africa as he vies to control one side of Bab al-Mandab strait and to secure an “alternative Palestinian homeland” in “Somaliland.”
As for the Arab landscape, it is clear that Israel is no longer satisfied with merely compelling half of the Arab League to adopt “neutrality.” It now has Arab allies who openly defend the interests of its fundamentalists and their plans for partition, displacement, and settlement.
Globally, Israel is, at least for now, losing the “battle over the truth” around the genocide in Gaza. However, in an effort spearheaded by Netanyahu and backed by the billionaire Miriam Adelson, it has built the “arsenal” that will shape the narrative in the future.
Its comprehensive counter-narrative is riddled with lies: the burial of evidence, silencing witnesses, preventing accountability, skepticism, and transparency, and monopolizing media, digital, and artificial intelligence technologies and applications.
These goals, of course, could not be realized without the full backing of Washington. Many influential figures in American politics, including Republican politicians and non-partisan journalists, are no longer comfortable with their country’s commitment to Israel. As has now become evident, President Donald Trump’s unequivocal alignment with Netanyahu has created rifts among conservatives and the hard right. It has been split into a Christian bloc and a Jewish bloc, with hardline Christian figures who have embraced the slogan “America First,” such as media figures and activists Tucker Carlson, Nick Fuentes, Candace Owens, and Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, have expressed their opposition to unconditional support for Israel. These figures believe that the loyalties of the Jewish-American wing of the Trump camp are first and foremost to Israel.
With Netanyahu visiting President Trump for the fifth time, Israel maintains the upper hand in Washington as the Arabs fail to develop a strategy for confronting the challenges of the future. Indeed, there is reason to doubt whether anyone continues to believe in the need for a “unified Arab strategy” to stand up for the Arabs’ most fundamental interests. In thinking of these questions, it is useful to go over the “neighbors” with whom Arabs share the Middle East, North Africa, and their vital corridors.
Turkiye, for example, is clearly pursuing a strategy; whether one agrees with it or not, its policies are founded on a conception of its “vital interests.” This sphere of interests encompasses several dimensions:
The first dimension is the religious legitimacy inherited from the Ottoman era, which governed much of our Arab region from 1516 to 1918.
The second dimension is a Turkish/Turkmen linguistic-national community, which maintains a presence from Iraq in the east to Algeria in the west.
The third dimension is demographic and economic: Turkiye controls two vital straits the Russian giant needs to breathe in the south, and is home to one of the largest Sunni Muslim populations in the world.
The fourth dimension is global and strategic: Turkiye is, in part, an important “European and NATO player” with sizable communities in Europe, especially Germany.
When the Turkish establishment “engages” with the Arab region, we see it maneuver, oppose, appease, and build alliances grounded in real, serious, and even existential considerations.
Despite the immense setbacks it has suffered in Lebanon, Palestine, and Syria, Iran believes it is “paying with its reserves,” not its “flesh.” In other words, it has lost nothing from within, only from its outer (Arab) perimeter.
After years of political and economic sanctions, moreover, Iran has built patience, strategies for relieving pressure, a knack for identifying and seizing opportunities, and building alternative communication networks. Even though it has lost three important Arab “cards” and Israel is now threatening its fourth, the Houthis in Yemen, Iran has maintained a relatively comfortable margin of maneuver, as we can see from its relations with China and Russia.
Even Ethiopia, as we are now seeing, knows what it wants from Israel and how to get it. It is armed with historical “heritage” that dates back to antiquity, one that perhaps never truly broke since the fall of Haile Selassie, the “Lion of Judah,” who ruled from 1930 to 1974.
Ethiopia, which now has a population of over 132 million people and controls some of the most important sources of the Nile, could become another “thorn” for the Arab region if relations deteriorate to the point of a rupture or explicit hostility. The strategists of “Greater Israel” have given this specter considerable attention, especially after Netanyahu’s influence has reached “Somaliland” (formerly British Somaliland), which could open a land route between the Somali port of Berbera and the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, thereby providing Ethiopia with a seaport that does not depend on Djibouti or Eritrea.
Accordingly, our “neighbors” are well aware of their interests... So, when will we learn from them and manage to even partially replicate their excellence in this regard? Or have we grown old, too old to learn?
