As soon as Yevgeny Prigozhin mutinied inside Russia, another Yevgeny Prigozhin mutinied abroad. The latter is named Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish president who was re-elected less than two months ago.
Erdogan’s mutiny, per many observers, came within the broader context of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s declining prestige after the limitations of his ability to crush Ukraine were exposed. This led to the emergence of small Prigozhins who have begun to defy the master of the Kremlin across the globe. Overnight, he went from “strong” and “shrewd” to “weak.”
Some of those who had been enthusiasts have become more lukewarm supporters, and others went from supporters to neutrals, while some neutrals became skeptical and sometimes even hostile. As for those who had been looking for more indications, they found them in the dismissal of 58th Army Commander General Ivan Popov from his position in Ukraine as a punishment for the frankness with which he spoke to his military leadership about the miserable state of Moscow’s war.
However, Erdogan went further than anyone else. He has taken extremely audacious positions, and it seems that the Russians have yet to recover from the shock. This may explain why two voices emerged - one that reflects Putin’s character and another that spoke the language of adapting to the withering of his wings.
The first statement came out of Viktor Bondarev’s mouth, the head of the Russian Federation Council Committee on Defense and Security. He admitted that “The events of the past weeks, unfortunately, clearly demonstrate that Türkiye is gradually and steadily continuing to turn from a neutral country into an unfriendly one.” Such behavior, he added, “could not be called anything other than a stab in the back.”
The second statement came from Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov, who claims “no one should be surprised” by Türkiye’s position. “Türkiye is a member of the North Atlantic Alliance. It has its obligations and has to adhere to its obligations. This has never been a secret to us and we had no illusions about this,” he explained.
In fact, Erdogan has done very many things over a very brief period. When he received Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, he said that Ukraine “deserves” to join NATO, going further than NATO and the United States themselves. Erdogan also released the five Ukrainian battalion commanders who defended the Azovstal Metallurgical Combine in Mariupol before Russian forces took control. It had been agreed, as part of the framework for prisoner exchange, that they would remain in Türkiye until the end of the war.
Erdogan approving Sweden’s NATO membership was no less painful. Türkiye did not just appease Sweden at Vilnius, it also introduced what Erdogan called a “completely new phase” in its relationship with the United States. And, on the sidelines, it made a breakthrough with Greece.
Other factors that encouraged the Turkish president to take this path have been mentioned. He has become more confident after winning pivotal elections, and he is surrounded by a trio famous for its European leanings, i.e., Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, and intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin.
Nonetheless, Putin’s misery remains a more compelling explanation of what has happened and is happening. To appreciate just how far he has come, we must look at the archive of statements that Erdogan has made over the seven years since the coup attempt. Over this period, he called the Americans and Europeans many names, not excluding epithets like “crusaders” and “Nazis;” he also affirmed that he would not comply with the decisions of the European Court of Human Rights and even went as far as declaring that he was willing to disregard joining the European Union. In fact, no Western leader, including Joe Biden, was spared his insults and slander.
The truth is that there is little Putin can do about this aggressive shift. He cannot afford to do without the safe haven that Türkiye provides Russian oligarchs, who have become untouchables in the West, nor can he forgo the access to the European market that Türkiye could provide after the Nord Stream Pipeline was destroyed. There are at least three precedents that suggest that Russia is willing to take slaps to the face from Türkiye. One is Hakan Fidan’s meeting with the exiled Tatar leader Mustafa Kerimoglu, which the Kremlin simply ignored. The second is that Moscow did not withdraw from the “Black Sea Grain Initiative” after it had threatened to. As for the third, it has provided Kyiv with combat drones, missile launch systems, and armoured vehicles; and the Turkish drone manufacturer Bayraktar, which is owned by Erdogan’s son-in-law, has announced plans to build a drone factory in Ukraine.
While Putin is expected to accept Erdogan’s invitation to visit Türkiye next month despite all of this, the latter is also expected to reap his rewards. He has a long list of demands. Few will be met, while most will be used to persuade the Turkish public that their president did not offer free concessions. Türkiye’s economic conditions will probably improve, and Ankara will likely receive F-16s from the US. However, this reconciliation could unfortunately also bolster the “fight against terrorism” at the expense of other NATO roles that do not suit Erdogan.
In any case, it will be interesting to follow developments in Türkiye, and indeed the world, as Prigozhinism’s blows from all sides take their toll on Russia.
