With every new US administration, the British media starts to fret about the status of the so-called ‘Special Relationship’ between the UK and the US; and, for the past few elections, it has fixated on the location of Winston Churchill’s bust: In or out of the Oval office. There is no doubt that the UK-US relationship is both good and strong, but the obsession in making it ‘special’ is much more a British preoccupation than an American one.
It is not surprising, therefore, that US President-elect Joe Biden’s election victory over President Donald Trump has once again opened up the debate on the status of relations and the most vocal – the doomsayers – forecast a rocky road ahead, especially for the UK government. Amongst other things, they point to Biden’s unease with Brexit, the influence of his Irish heritage in shaping US policy should Brexit compromise the Good Friday Agreement and the derogatory comments British prime minister Boris Johnson once made about former US President Barack Obama. Except the last point, these should be matters of concern for the British government.
Whilst much is made of the historical ties, shared values and common purpose between the two countries, the UK’s utility to the US will drop considerably as soon as it is outside the EU. Their bilateral relations, strong institutional links and even common language had made London a particularly useful interlocutor within Europe through which DC could advance its interests indirectly, whilst also making direct overtures to Paris, Berlin and Brussels – the classic diplomatic pincer movement. Relations between the US and EU partners France and Germany will likely deepen as the Biden administration takes office, and the new president looks to repair partnerships with US allies and re-engages with international organisations, such as North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and the World Health Organisation (WHO).
As such, the UK will be way down the list of priority countries and that will have an immediate knock-on effect on the two sides reaching a trade deal, irrespective of progress made under the Trump administration. In reality, Britain will just matter less to the US than it has done in the past. However, there is no reason to believe that the relationship will deteriorate; and there are at least four reasons why it will remain robust and durable and, arguably, in better shape when Trump leaves office.
First, there will be a return to normalcy in government to government relations. During the past four years, it has been difficult for UK government institutions to gain traction with their counterparts. So much was vested in the hands of the president and his immediate circle and that meant personal relations trumped normal diplomatic channels; and whilst that worked in favor of Boris Johnson, it worked against his predecessor Theresa May. Trump’s very personalized approach to policy-making meant that the institutions that ordinarily conduct and implement government business were circumvented and, in some cases, made irrelevant. For example, the State Department was side-lined on so many occasions and this had a direct impact on the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) and its ability to share information, analyses and intelligence informing US policy. Under Biden, we can assume that institutional ties will once again strengthen, and co-ordination between US and UK ministries, militaries and agencies will improve.
Second, the fact that Biden has indicated early on that he will prioritize climate change and has signaled that the US will re-join the Paris Agreement provides the UK with the perfect opportunity to gain relevance, as it not only holds the presidency for the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) for the next year but has also established its credentials as a leading force on this pressing global issue.
Third, defense and security will likely remain at the core of the US-UK relationship; and whilst Biden will differ from Trump in his approach towards NATO, he will expect all partners to step up and pay their way. Here, London has a real advantage over its neighbors and has demonstrated a much higher commitment towards meeting its contributions towards NATO and has always shown a willingness to deploy alongside US forces, and that will continue to stand it in good stead, as long as the prime minister stays the course.
Finally, even outside the EU, the UK will continue to work closely with France and Germany on critical foreign policy matters, such as reviving the JCPOA and tackling the issue of Iranian influence in the Middle East region. London has much to offer the US on this file, given its historical ties to the region, the strength of its relationships and bank of cumulated diplomatic capital.
There can be little doubt that the UK’s value to the US will diminish as it leaves the EU and Biden takes office. However, London has plenty of reasons to impress upon the new president that the relationship remains relevant, as well as robust and durable, and it will likely eclipse the empty pomp and ceremony that has come to characterize the Trump years. Nonetheless, whilst the UK will continue to call the relationship special, the US will probably look back and say, whatever.
Dr. Neil Quilliam is an Associate Fellow at The Royal Institute of International Affairs in London, Chatham House; and Managing Director of Azure Strategy consultancy
