Aramco President: Demand for Oil Sees Recovery, Can Reach Pre-Pandemic Levels Next Yearhttps://english.aawsat.com/home/article/2838711/aramco-president-demand-oil-sees-recovery-can-reach-pre-pandemic-levels-next
Aramco President: Demand for Oil Sees Recovery, Can Reach Pre-Pandemic Levels Next Year
CEO of Saudi Aramco, Amin Al-Nasser (AFP)
The CEO of Saudi Aramco, Amin Al-Nasser, said that global oil demand was recovering and could approach pre-pandemic levels next year.
Addressing the virtual CERAWeek conference organized by IHS Markit, Nasser noted that global oil demand would likely recover as of the second half of 2021 and might reach 99 million barrels per day in 2022.
CERAWeek is an annual energy conference organized by the information and insights company IHS Markit in Houston, Texas.
Nasser pointed to the improvement in demand for oil in China, India and East Asia, while the distribution of vaccines is considered a “reason for optimism” in the West.
He said that Aramco - the world’s biggest oil company - used risk-management systems to respond quickly to the pandemic, which also helped it accelerate the use of digital and remote operating processes.
“We faced the biggest crisis in a century, but our business sector got used to difficult circumstances thanks to our focus on flexibility, which gave us the ability to adapt to ensure a quick response,” he underlined.
Nasser also touched on the transformation in the energy sector, noting that environmental, social and governance issues were and still constitute “a significant part” of Saudi Aramco’s strategy.
Sultan Ahmed Al-Jaber, CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) and Minister of State in the government of the United Arab Emirates, said that there would be a need for low-cost oil as the world witnesses an energy transition.
“The world will still need oil and gas for many decades to come. There is no doubt about that,” he remarked, expecting a recovery in oil demand, supported by the curb of the pandemic in China and India.
IFAD to Asharq Al-Awsat: Repercussions of Hormuz Closure Trigger Global Food Security Shockhttps://english.aawsat.com/business/5264575-ifad-asharq-al-awsat-repercussions-hormuz-closure-trigger-global-food-security
IFAD to Asharq Al-Awsat: Repercussions of Hormuz Closure Trigger Global Food Security Shock
A container ship is seen in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Qeshm Island, Iran, Saturday, April 18, 2026. (AP Photo/Asghar Besharati)
The International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) said the repercussions of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have triggered a global food security shock, warning that disruptions to fertilizer and fuel supplies, rising input costs, and declining purchasing power are threatening production at a critical point in the agricultural season. This is driving food prices higher and will severely affect the world’s most vulnerable populations.
Gerardine Mukeshimana, Vice President of IFAD, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the repercussions of the US-Israeli-Iranian conflict have led to a global food security shock that has already begun to manifest in local food crises, particularly for small-scale producers and rural populations.
On this Mukeshimana said “The ripple effects of the conflict have triggered a global food security shock that is already translating into local food crises, particularly for small-scale producers and rural populations. While it is too early to quantify a precise global ‘food gap,’ nor foresee all possible consequences, we do know that many of the women and men who produce our food are already under pressure.”
Critical timing and heightened risks
Mukeshimana stressed the seriousness of the timing, as farmers across nearly half the world are entering critical agricultural seasons between March and June. Any shortage of inputs at this stage will inevitably lead to lower yields and reduced food availability in the coming months.
“Between March and June, farmers across nearly half the world enter critical planting seasons, meaning that input shortfalls and price spikes today risk lower harvests and tighter food availability in the months ahead. As past crises have shown, these shocks do not originate at the farm level, but they ultimately land there, among those with the least capacity to absorb them.”
Impact of shipping disruptions on agricultural production
On the repercussions of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on the passage of ships carrying agricultural inputs and fertilizers, and estimates of losses over the past 40 days, Mukeshimana said: “The abrupt halt and severe disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb has had immediate repercussions for fertilizers, fuel and other agricultural inputs. While exact volume losses over the past 40 days vary by commodity and route, evidence from IFAD investments points to significant shipment delays, curtailed exports and cascading market effects, from reduced planting to distorted farm-gate prices and declining rural incomes, as gathered in detail by the position paper, ‘Global shock, local crisis,’ published by Alvaro Lario, President of IFAD this week.”
She noted that these impacts are clearly reflected in shrinking cultivated areas, distortions in agricultural price structures, and a deterioration in farmers’ net incomes, as documented in the position paper issued this week by IFAD President Alvaro Lario titled “Global shock, local crisis,” which warned that international logistical disruptions are translating into severe local livelihood crises.
Vice-President of IFAD Gerardine Mukeshimana (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Import-dependent countries in a double bind
“The supply chain disruptions are cutting off farmers’ access to markets to both purchase inputs – such as seeds, veterinary medicines, and equipment – and sell their products both domestically and as exports. The result: farmers’ expenses rise as their income drops.”
Mukeshimana said this represents a global risk, as small-scale farmers produce about one-third of the world’s food, and up to 70 percent in Africa. When their production declines due to input shortages, it leads to reduced output, higher prices, deeper vulnerability, and rising hunger.
She warned that these repercussions directly translate into lower production levels, rising prices, and worsening economic vulnerability, ultimately expanding the scope of hunger.
Mukeshimana added that countries that rely on imports face a double bind, as fertilizer shortages and rising costs compound existing pressures from climate shocks, armed conflict, and accumulated debt, making it extremely difficult for these countries to withstand the current crisis.
“In import-dependent countries, fertilizer shortages and price spikes amplify existing pressures from climate shocks, conflict, and debt. Left unaddressed, these shocks can drive wider development setbacks, hunger, increasing humanitarian needs, forced migration, conflict and political instability.”
Inflation Woes and Firmer Dollar Drag Gold Lower as US-Iran Tensions Revivehttps://english.aawsat.com/business/5264513-inflation-woes-and-firmer-dollar-drag-gold-lower-us-iran-tensions-revive
Inflation Woes and Firmer Dollar Drag Gold Lower as US-Iran Tensions Revive
A display of gold bars, each weighing 1000 grams, at a gold and silver refinery in Vienna (AFP)
Gold prices fell on Monday owing to a stronger US dollar and renewed inflation fears after another closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices higher.
Spot gold was down 0.8% at $4,790.59 per ounce, as of 1103 GMT, after hitting its lowest since April 13 earlier in the session.
US gold futures for June delivery fell 1.4% to $4,811.
"Oil's surge after the weekend's chaotic events surrounding the Strait of Hormuz ensure that inflation risks remain palpable, offsetting gold's allure as a safe-haven asset. The precious metal has taken a backseat to the dollar's role as the preferred safe haven throughout the conflict so far," said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Bybit, Reuters reported.
"Barring meaningful and sustained de-escalations in the ongoing conflict, spot gold is expected to keep treading water in these sub-$5,000 levels."
The US said on Sunday that it had took over an Iranian cargo ship that tried to break through its blockade while Iran said it would retaliate, heightening fears of a resumption of hostilities.
Oil prices jumped around 5% on fears that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran could collapse and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained largely halted.
The dollar index strengthened, making greenback-priced bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies. Benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields gained, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
Although gold is considered an inflation hedge and a safe haven during geopolitical and economic uncertainty, rising energy costs stemming from the war in Iran have stoked inflation concerns and pushed the yellow metal lower on expectations of monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve.
"Nonetheless, gold retains the ability to extend its recent rebound as structural demand drivers persist. Central bank buying, de-dollarization and currency debasement trends may have faded but remain alive and can support bullion," said Nikos Tzabouras, senior market analyst at Jefferies-owned Tradu.com.
Among other metals, spot silver lost 2.1% to $79.07 per ounce, platinum fell 1.7% to $2,066.90, and palladium was down 1.6% at $1,533.64.
European Shares Slip as Hopes for US-Iran Peace Fadehttps://english.aawsat.com/business/5264461-european-shares-slip-hopes-us-iran-peace-fade
The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, April 17, 2026. (Reuters)
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European Shares Slip as Hopes for US-Iran Peace Fade
The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, April 17, 2026. (Reuters)
European shares declined on Monday, as hopes for peace in the Middle East ebbed with tensions reigniting after Washington seized an Iranian cargo ship that tried to run its blockade and Tehran vowed to retaliate.
Investors have grown increasingly jittery as the US-Iran ceasefire, set to expire Tuesday, appears fragile.
Iran rejected fresh peace talks with the US just hours after President Donald Trump said he would dispatch envoys to Pakistan while threatening new strikes unless Tehran accepts his terms.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index was down 0.8% to 621.52 points as of 0717 GMT.
Major regional markets also fell, with France's CAC and Germany's DAX down 0.9% and 1%, respectively.
The uncertainty marks a sharp reversal from Friday's optimism, when the STOXX 600 jumped more than 1% and secured its fourth consecutive weekly gain after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz open.
Energy shares gained 1.9% as crude prices surged., while utilities and telecommunication stocks rose 0.7% and 0.2%, respectively.
Travel and leisure sector led the declines, bearing, down 2%. Banks and automobile stocks dropped 1.8% each.
Among other movers, cash logistics company Loomis was top loser on the European benchmark index after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to "neutral" from "buy".
The setback in the Middle East conflict comes despite tentative signs of normalization at the Strait of Hormuz.
Although Iran has reimposed a closure of the critical waterway, Kpler data revealed more than 20 vessels carrying oil, metals, gas, and fertilizer passed through on Saturday - the busiest traffic day since March 1.
Elevated oil prices continue to weigh heavily on energy-dependent European economies, keeping investors cautious.
The strait is a conduit for one-fifth of global energy shipments. Brent crude futures advanced 5.3% to $95.19 a barrel after tumbling 9% on Friday.
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