Passing through Syria without Engaging Damascus

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Jordan's King Abdullah II speak, during their meeting on the side of the International Military Technical Forum Army-2021 in Alabino, outside Moscow, Russia. (AP)
Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Jordan's King Abdullah II speak, during their meeting on the side of the International Military Technical Forum Army-2021 in Alabino, outside Moscow, Russia. (AP)
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Passing through Syria without Engaging Damascus

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Jordan's King Abdullah II speak, during their meeting on the side of the International Military Technical Forum Army-2021 in Alabino, outside Moscow, Russia. (AP)
Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Jordan's King Abdullah II speak, during their meeting on the side of the International Military Technical Forum Army-2021 in Alabino, outside Moscow, Russia. (AP)

Among the various issues tackled by CIA director William Burns in Beirut earlier this month was connecting power from Jordan to Lebanon through Syria.

The connection would effectively pass through Syria without politically engaging with Damascus.

Burns was not the first official to propose using Syria as a crossing point without actually dealing with Damascus.

The US has agreed to help Lebanon tackle its crippling electricity crisis in response to a proposal by Hezbollah to bring in fuel from Iran.

The American proposal was made at Jordan and Lebanon’s suggestion and through a mechanism that works around US sanctions and avoids criticism from Washington. The problem, however, lies with Syria itself.

Damascus needs gas and electricity for the greater Arab project to connect electricity from Egypt to Lebanon through Jordan and Syria. This project would also help Syria out of its own darkness.

Officials in Syria are seeking to exploit Lebanon and Jordan’s needs for two purposes: Extending gas and electricity to Syria at a cost and opening political channels of communication with Washington and Arab countries.

Washington is still wary of political dealings with Damascus. Dealing with the Syrian reality differs from “legitimizing the regime”. Extending power connections would be limited to energy, not extending a hand in politics. That is why Washington tasked Beirut and Amman to tackle technical and political obstacles with Damascus.

Burns had notably visited Beirut shortly after Jordan’s King Abdullah II had visited Washington for talks with President Joe Biden in July.

The monarch had proposed the formation of an international-regional “working group” that includes Russia to implement a joint “roadmap” for Syria. The roadmap would include a series of elements, starting from Washington’s position for the regime to change its behavior, rather than demand complete regime change. This should achieve stability in Syria and restore its sovereignty, ensure the withdrawal of foreign forces and militias and implement a political solution for the crisis.

King Abdullah’s next stop was Moscow where he held talks on Monday with President Vladimir Putin and hailed the Russian role in achieving stability in Syria.

The visit coincided with Russian-led negotiations on the ground to reach a settlement in the southern province of Daraa that borders Jordan. The negotiations are focusing the pullout of Iranian militias from the area and a return of state authority in the South. The opposition is demanded to agree to an acceptable settlement. Talks are also focusing on the situation in Sweida and countering terrorism and drugs smuggling and their impact on Jordan.

The next stop for Jordanian officials is Iraq, which is hosting on Saturday a summit for regional countries at the initiative of Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi.

Syrian president Bashar Assad will not attend the event, but the war-torn country will be a main topic of discussions.

Kadhimi had dispatched an envoy to Assad to brief him about the summit and to discuss what Damascus can offer Baghdad so that a future summit could tackle the possibility of Syria returning to the Arab fold after its membership in the Arab League was suspended nine years ago.

It is evident that American opposition to such political moves and initiatives is not as unyielding as it was under the term of President Donald Trump. However, it is also clear that the Biden administration is not open to broader and deeper political initiatives.

As it stands, it is only limiting its interest to the ties between the Kurds in Qamishli with the Damascus government, preventing the resurgence of ISIS, providing the green light and intelligence for Israeli strikes on Iranian and Hezbollah positions in Syria, and maintaining pressure on the regime, through sanctions and continued isolation, in the hopes it changes its behavior.

Amid the above, several proposed projects will in all likelihood pass through Syria without actually engaging Damascus.



UN Resolution 1701 at the Heart of the Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire

An empty United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) observation tower on the Israel-Lebanon border, near the southern Lebanese city of Al-Khiam, as seen from northern Israel, 26 November 2024, amid cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel. (EPA)
An empty United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) observation tower on the Israel-Lebanon border, near the southern Lebanese city of Al-Khiam, as seen from northern Israel, 26 November 2024, amid cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel. (EPA)
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UN Resolution 1701 at the Heart of the Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire

An empty United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) observation tower on the Israel-Lebanon border, near the southern Lebanese city of Al-Khiam, as seen from northern Israel, 26 November 2024, amid cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel. (EPA)
An empty United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) observation tower on the Israel-Lebanon border, near the southern Lebanese city of Al-Khiam, as seen from northern Israel, 26 November 2024, amid cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel. (EPA)

In 2006, after a bruising monthlong war between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah armed group, the United Nations Security Council unanimously voted for a resolution to end the conflict and pave the way for lasting security along the border.

But while relative calm stood for nearly two decades, Resolution 1701’s terms were never fully enforced.

Now, figuring out how to finally enforce it is key to a US-brokered deal that brought a ceasefire Wednesday.

In late September, after nearly a year of low-level clashes, the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah spiraled into all-out war and an Israeli ground invasion. As Israeli jets pound deep inside Lebanon and Hezbollah fires rockets deeper into northern Israel, UN and diplomatic officials again turned to the 2006 resolution in a bid to end the conflict.

Years of deeply divided politics and regionwide geopolitical hostilities have halted substantial progress on its implementation, yet the international community believes Resolution 1701 is still the brightest prospect for long-term stability between Israel and Lebanon.

Almost two decades after the last war between Israel and Hezbollah, the United States led shuttle diplomacy efforts between Lebanon and Israel to agree on a ceasefire proposal that renewed commitment to the resolution, this time with an implementation plan to try to reinvigorate the document.

What is UNSC Resolution 1701? In 2000, Israel withdrew its forces from most of southern Lebanon along a UN-demarcated “Blue Line” that separated the two countries and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights in Syria. UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) peacekeepers increased their presence along the line of withdrawal.

Resolution 1701 was supposed to complete Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon and ensure Hezbollah would move north of the Litani River, keeping the area exclusively under the Lebanese military and UN peacekeepers.

Up to 15,000 UN peacekeepers would help to maintain calm, return displaced Lebanese and secure the area alongside the Lebanese military.

The goal was long-term security, with land borders eventually demarcated to resolve territorial disputes.

The resolution also reaffirmed previous ones that call for the disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon — Hezbollah among them.

“It was made for a certain situation and context,” Elias Hanna, a retired Lebanese army general, told The Associated Press. “But as time goes on, the essence of the resolution begins to hollow.”

Has Resolution 1701 been implemented? For years, Lebanon and Israel blamed each other for countless violations along the tense frontier. Israel said Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force and growing arsenal remained, and accused the group of using a local environmental organization to spy on troops.

Lebanon complained about Israeli military jets and naval ships entering Lebanese territory even when there was no active conflict.

“You had a role of the UNIFIL that slowly eroded like any other peacekeeping with time that has no clear mandate,” said Joseph Bahout, the director of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy at the American University of Beirut. “They don’t have permission to inspect the area without coordinating with the Lebanese army.”

UNIFIL for years has urged Israel to withdraw from some territory north of the frontier, but to no avail. In the ongoing war, the peacekeeping mission has accused Israel, as well as Hezbollah, of obstructing and harming its forces and infrastructure.

Hezbollah’s power, meanwhile, has grown, both in its arsenal and as a political influence in the Lebanese state.

The Iran-backed group was essential in keeping Syrian President Bashar Assad in power when armed opposition groups tried to topple him, and it supports Iran-backed groups in Iraq and Yemen. It has an estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles, including precision-guided missiles pointed at Israel, and has introduced drones into its arsenal.

Hanna says Hezbollah “is something never seen before as a non-state actor” with political and military influence.

How do mediators hope to implement 1701 almost two decades later? Israel's security Cabinet approved the ceasefire agreement late Tuesday, according to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office. The ceasefire began at 4 am local time Wednesday.

Efforts led by the US and France for the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah underscored that they still view the resolution as key. For almost a year, Washington has promoted various versions of a deal that would gradually lead to its full implementation.

International mediators hope that by boosting financial support for the Lebanese army — which was not a party in the Israel-Hezbollah war — Lebanon can deploy some 6,000 additional troops south of the Litani River to help enforce the resolution. Under the deal, an international monitoring committee headed by the United States would oversee implementation to ensure that Hezbollah and Israel’s withdrawals take place.

It is not entirely clear how the committee would work or how potential violations would be reported and dealt with.

The circumstances now are far more complicated than in 2006. Some are still skeptical of the resolution's viability given that the political realities and balance of power both regionally and within Lebanon have dramatically changed since then.

“You’re tying 1701 with a hundred things,” Bahout said. “A resolution is the reflection of a balance of power and political context.”

Now with the ceasefire in place, the hope is that Israel and Lebanon can begin negotiations to demarcate their land border and settle disputes over several points along the Blue Line for long-term security after decades of conflict and tension.