The Russian invasion of Ukraine is expected to impact the whole world, with its repercussions going beyond Europe and "areas of conflict," with some observers arguing that it will ripple throughout the Middle East and North Africa in the short and long term as well.
The economic and political challenges of the war will impact the Middle East. Many countries depend on Russian wheat and Russian and Ukrainian oil and industries, which will lead to "political polarization" with governments siding with Russia or the West.
In a report published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, Senior Vice President and Director of Middle East Program Jon Alterman believes that the effects of Russia's February invasion of Ukraine will ripple throughout the Middle East and North Africa region.
Alterman noted that it would reveal new geo-strategic alignments, compound food insecurity, and threaten to spark further military confrontations.
If the confrontation between Russia and much of the rest of the world is prolonged, as seems likely, the more severe impacts may be in the longer-term rather than the shorter term.
Alterman, who co-authored the report with his fellow Will Todman, believes Iran and Syria took predictably anti-Western stances.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad declared that Damascus would recognize the independence of two Russian-backed separatist regions in eastern Ukraine, and Iran's foreign minister said that crisis is "rooted in NATO's provocations."
But key US allies and partners in the region have been cautious. While Israel's foreign minister condemned Russia, its prime minister notably did not.
Israel sees Russia as an essential partner, and Russian emigrants are an important constituency in the Israeli electorate.
The Gulf states and some Arab countries all see Russia as an important fellow energy producer and a potential source of arms, investment, and other goods. They have expressed concern but avoided placing the blame on Russia.
Oil price hike
The crisis and the Russian-Ukrainian war that erupted on February 24 led to a surge of oil prices above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2014. For oil-exporting states in the region, higher prices will provide welcome budgetary relief in the short term after the economic hit of COVID-19.
Counterintuitively, in the longer term, sustained higher oil prices could accelerate the energy transition by making renewables and electrification more economically attractive.
While there is always pressure among oil-exporting states to channel windfalls into public salaries and subsidies, some governments may use a portion of the newfound profits to invest in efforts to diversify their energy investments, in particular in renewables and hydrogen.
Some regional countries also fear that Russia will lack the resources to sustain its role in Syria, leaving a vacuum that Iranian forces will fill, especially if the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JPCOA) is revived and higher oil prices put even more money in the Iranian treasury.
Shortage of Russian wheat and food commodities
The report presented the impact of the Ukrainian-Russian crisis on the supply lines and global food commodities, which constitute about a quarter of global wheat exports. The pandemic and resultant logistics challenges had already boosted wheat prices by 80 percent since April 2020; wheat futures in Paris rose 16 percent on February 24.
In addition, Russia has cut off exports of ammonium nitrate fertilizer. Several countries in the Middle East are particularly vulnerable to higher prices and disrupted supplies.
For example, Egypt is the world's largest importer of wheat, and many of its imports come from the Black Sea area. Although the government attempted to diversify its supplies in the run-up to the invasion, signs of supply shortages are already apparent.
The government announced that its strategic stockpile of wheat would last for less than five months.
Egypt received many bids for a wheat tender last week, but this week canceled a tender after receiving only one high-priced offer.
In North Africa, the price hikes and supply disruptions coincide with severe droughts.
The economic challenges come at a difficult time for Tunisian President Kais Saied, who is in a renewed effort to consolidate power after dismissing parliament last summer and faces increasingly stubborn economic stagnation.
The report argues that wheat shortages will hit fragile states in the region even harder. Lebanon's economic crisis has already undermined its population's ability to buy food, with prices increasing by 1,000 percent in less than three years. Lebanon imports wheat to meet most of its needs, with about 60 percent from Ukraine. The country has approximately a month's worth of grain in storage.
War-torn Libya and Yemen are similarly vulnerable to wheat shortages.
Regional political and military polarization
President Vladimir Putin promised "consequences you have never seen" to countries that interfere with Russia's operations in Ukraine. Russia has several options to inflict pain on the West in the Middle East in retaliation to sanctions. Tensions could result in Russia acting as a spoiler in Syria.
Meanwhile, the new CENTCOM commander, Lieutenant General Michael Kurilla, warned that Russia has increasingly violated de-confliction protocols with the United States in eastern Syria in recent months.
If relations deteriorate further and Russia shuns de-confliction mechanisms, the risk of a more severe confrontation will rise.
Russia will have a clear opportunity to undermine the West in July when the UN Security Council votes to renew UN cross-border humanitarian operations into opposition-held areas in northwest Syria.
A Russian veto would imperil the four million Syrians who depend on the life-saving assistance, sharply increase pressure on Turkey and prompt a large wave of forced migration in the eastern Mediterranean.
The Biden administration has emphasized humanitarian diplomacy, and a Russian veto would likely quash any hopes of serious cooperation on the Syria file between the United States and Russia.
Russia could seek to increase pressure on Europe by stoking conflict in Libya at a fragile time for the peace process.
Russia could similarly instrumentalize the threat of irregular migration from Libya to destabilize Europe just as it grapples with refugees from Ukraine.
Finally, Russia could complicate international diplomacy on the Iran nuclear file. While the invasion of Ukraine has not derailed JCPOA negotiations in Vienna up to now, successful negotiations will still require a delicate process of implementation, and Russia could seek to play a disruptive role.
