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Pentagon Report: US Military Could Have Done More To Prevent Civilian Harm In Raqqa

A general view of Raqqa, Syria (AFP)
A general view of Raqqa, Syria (AFP)
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Pentagon Report: US Military Could Have Done More To Prevent Civilian Harm In Raqqa

A general view of Raqqa, Syria (AFP)
A general view of Raqqa, Syria (AFP)

The US military could have done more to reduce civilian harm during the battle to liberate Syria’s Raqqa city from ISIS from June till October 2017, according to a report requested by the US Department of Defense (DOD).

The report, prepared by RAND researchers, studies the causes of civilian harm in Raqqa and provides insights into how the DoD can reduce civilian harm in future operations.

Titled “Understanding Civilian Harm in Raqqa and Its Implications for Future Conflicts,” the report revealed that coalition attacks on Raqqa left between 774 and 1600 civilian casualties, listing data received from Airwars and Amnesty International.

It said that when the city was finally liberated from ISIS, 60 to 80 percent of it was estimated to be uninhabitable.

The 130-page report also said the Raqqa operation involved a significant amount of building and other infrastructure damage, which severely undermined the ability of civilians to rebuild their city with limited local resources and international support.

It said the high rate of building damage was the result of a reliance on air and artillery fires to root out a dug-in enemy and protect the lives of friendly forces.

According to the United Nations Institute for Training and Research, RAND said that approximately 11,000 buildings were either damaged or destroyed in Raqqa between February and October 2017—corresponding to approximately 40 buildings destroyed per day.

It said that despite robust policies, procedures, and mitigation efforts, coalition forces caused significant civilian casualties and could have prepared and performed better.

“The coalition’s chosen strategy of encircling and defeating ISIS in Raqqa meant that coalition forces did not implement any formal pauses or negotiate exit corridors that might have allowed civilians (and potentially ISIS fighters) to leave the city prior to and during the fighting,” the researchers found.

Also, RAND said that despite the extensive damage to civilian structures and infrastructure caused by the coalition’s military operations, the US government did not marshal the resources needed to assist local actors in Raqqa with the reconstruction of the city.

As a conclusion, the report recommended that prior to the start of military operations, DoD must take a broader approach to civilian harm that considers how strategic choices might affect civilian-harm risks.

Separately, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported renewed Turkish attacks on SDF-controlled areas in the Raqqa countryside, where several artillery shells hit positions in Mualaq village and the surrounding areas of Ain Issa camp. However, no casualties have been reported.

The Observatory also reported that regime security services have reopened a center for settling the security status of suspects in the countryside of Al-Mayadeen city, east of Deir Ezzor.

Regime forces have opened the settlement center in Al-Mayadeen countryside four months ago and settled the security status of at least 3,000 inhabitants of the city and its countryside.

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Arab World

Iraqi Judiciary Backs Government Efforts to Bring Weapons Under State Control

The head of the Supreme Judicial Council met with the US chargé d'affaires in Iraq (The Judiciary’s Media Office)
The head of the Supreme Judicial Council met with the US chargé d'affaires in Iraq (The Judiciary’s Media Office)
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Iraqi Judiciary Backs Government Efforts to Bring Weapons Under State Control

The head of the Supreme Judicial Council met with the US chargé d'affaires in Iraq (The Judiciary’s Media Office)
The head of the Supreme Judicial Council met with the US chargé d'affaires in Iraq (The Judiciary’s Media Office)

Iraq’s Supreme Judicial Council President Faiq Zidan has stressed the judiciary’s support for government efforts to bring weapons under state control based on a plan adopted by the Coordination Framework.

Zidan made the remarks during a meeting Monday with the new US chargé d’affaires in Iraq, Steven Fagin. A statement from the Supreme Judicial Council said the two discussed the judiciary’s role in supporting the government’s program to restrict weapons to the state.

The process will proceed under “a well-studied plan” adopted by the Coordination Framework, with a committee established by the alliance tasked with preparing it and announcing it once completed and at the appropriate time. The plan is intended to uphold Iraq’s positive relations with the international community and ensure compliance with the constitution and the law.

Legal and political sources have previously indicated that the Iraqi judiciary is determined to designate militias as terrorist organizations if they refuse to disarm by the deadline for the withdrawal of international coalition forces.

Coordination Framework leaders were also expected to hold their weekly meeting Monday to discuss several issues, foremost among them bringing weapons under state control, completing the government lineup and proposed amendments to the Popular Mobilization Forces law.

Coalition withdrawal

With the Sept. 30 deadline for the withdrawal of US-led international coalition forces approaching, uncertainty continues to surround key political and security issues, particularly efforts to disarm Iran-aligned factions.

Washington has repeatedly pressed Baghdad in recent months to resolve the issue, warning that failure to do so could expose Iraq to economic and political sanctions at a time when the country is already facing financial strains.

A source close to the Coordination Framework told Asharq Al-Awsat that Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s government had softened its previously firm rhetoric on disarming the factions, while armed groups had become increasingly vocal in rejecting the demand.

The source attributed the shift to tense discussions within the Coordination Framework and between its leaders and al-Zaidi. The prime minister has repeatedly warned of the risks of failing to disarm and pointed to US demands, while some Framework leaders believe there is room to maneuver with Washington.

Conflicting statements by Framework leaders are also part of an effort to buy time, the source added, as the alliance faces pressure from two sides: Washington, which wants the issue resolved, and Tehran, which opposes disarmament.

State of Law Coalition leader Nouri al-Maliki recently raised the possibility of distinguishing between heavy, medium and light weapons, questioning whether restrictions should cover all arms or only weapons capable of striking domestic or foreign targets.

His comments were widely interpreted as a shift toward opposing comprehensive disarmament, prompting his office director, Hisham al-Rikabi, to say they had been “misunderstood.”

Factions resist disarmament

Kataib Hezbollah, Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba and Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada are among the most prominent Iran-aligned factions strongly resisting disarmament. Their demands have included the withdrawal of Turkish forces from northern Iraq and placing Kurdish Peshmerga forces under the commander-in-chief of the armed forces.

Firas Elias, a political science professor at the University of Mosul, told Asharq Al-Awsat that Sept. 30 was unlikely to mark a comprehensive handover of weapons.

Instead, he expects the deadline to begin a lengthy process involving the coalition’s withdrawal, a transitional period, the classification of factions and weapons, and the integration or redistribution of some fighters, alongside efforts to place heavy weapons, drones and missiles under state supervision.

The factions’ stringent conditions may indicate a shift from rejecting disarmament outright to negotiating the price of surrendering their weapons autonomy, Elias said.

The equation, he added, is moving from “weapons versus the state” to “weapons versus guarantees,” with factions setting demands Baghdad cannot fully meet so they can later concede some conditions while retaining part of their power and influence.

Arab World

New Battlefronts in Yemen Leave Houthis in Disarray

Armed forces celebrate their advances in al-Jawf. (X)
Armed forces celebrate their advances in al-Jawf. (X)
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New Battlefronts in Yemen Leave Houthis in Disarray

Armed forces celebrate their advances in al-Jawf. (X)
Armed forces celebrate their advances in al-Jawf. (X)

The Yemeni army and the National Resistance made progress on the ground on Monday across fronts in the Taiz, al-Bayda, and al-Jawf governorates, amid successive collapses and retreats among the Houthis. Al-Jawf is witnessing tribal mobilization in support of government forces following their field advances.

Yemeni army media announced that government forces secured a tactical breakthrough on the al-Bayda front, successfully liberating the Hayd al-Khazzan and al-Falhan areas up to the al-Nasifa region. The development allows the forces an advantage to sever Houthi supply lines between the central and southern governorates.

The advance coincided with the establishment of control over all hills and plateaus overlooking the al-Zaher district.

The director of media for the al-Bayda governorate, Aref Al-Amari, confirmed that the armed forces have tightened their control over the strategic highlands overlooking al-Zaher.

He noted that forces are currently combing al-Nasifa in preparation for an advance toward the Dhi Naem area, a development that strengthens the position of government forces in the governorate.

Spokesman for the Yemeni armed forces Colonel Maeen al-Nuzaili said the forces are achieving progress and victories on the al-Jawf and al-Bayda fronts as part of operations "aimed at restoring state institutions and ending the Houthi coup."

He called on the group's operatives to abandon their positions with their light weapons to save their lives.

On the western front, the Joint Forces managed to secure a vital artery in al-Kadha connecting Taiz city to the western coast, following the defeat of Houthis stationed in the controlling highlands.

Government forces targeted massive Houthi military reinforcements west of Taiz city, leaving heavy losses in lives and equipment.

Comprising more than 21 military vehicles, they were heading to support the al-Barh and Maqbanah fronts.

Meanwhile, tribes were mobilizing in al-Jawf to support the armed forces against the Houthis. According to local sources, the tribes moved toward the al-Yatma district.

Arab World

Assad-era Syrian Reactor was Configured for Nuclear Weapons, IAEA Chief Says

The logo of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) at the organization's headquarters in Vienna, Austria, March 6, 2023 (Reuters)
The logo of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) at the organization's headquarters in Vienna, Austria, March 6, 2023 (Reuters)
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Assad-era Syrian Reactor was Configured for Nuclear Weapons, IAEA Chief Says

The logo of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) at the organization's headquarters in Vienna, Austria, March 6, 2023 (Reuters)
The logo of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) at the organization's headquarters in Vienna, Austria, March 6, 2023 (Reuters)

The Assad-era government in Syria was constructing a nuclear reactor that was configured to produce fissile material for possible use in nuclear weapons, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency said on Monday.

The “configuration” and the “technical features” of the nuclear reactor under construction in Syria during the leadership of ousted former President Bashar Assad were “very efficient in the production of fissile material that could be directly used for the fabrication of nuclear weapons,” IAEA director general Rafael Grossi said.

“Of course, that was never declared, that was always denied, so, and again, intentions cannot be judged, but that was a very serious proliferation concern that we had, and this has been difficult work,” he told reporters on the first day of a regular meeting of the IAEA Board of Governors, in Vienna.

Syria was believed to have operated an extensive undeclared nuclear program under Assad that included a nuclear reactor built by North Korea in eastern Deir Ezzor province.

Following Assad’s ouster, the new government agreed to give IAEA inspectors access to suspected former nuclear sites.

During a visit to Syria in August, IAEA inspectors confirmed that “the cooling infrastructure which has now been uncovered is consistent with that of a nuclear reactor.” Grossi and a team of senior inspectors also visited a previously undeclared site in the country.

Syria notified the agency of the site’s existence in a July 17 letter and invited the IAEA “to cooperate with the Syrian authorities in the inspection and verification of the site and of any nuclear material to be potentially found.”

The IAEA said in its confidential report circulated to member states last Tuesday and seen by The Associated Press that this new site contained “natural uranium metal in the form of fuel rods with cladding.” The agency verified the material and confirmed “the presence of around 73 tonnes of natural uranium metal.”

Grossi said when the inspectors visited the site in August they had to “tear down walls” and go through “very difficult and narrow passages” to reach the nuclear material that had been hidden. The site had “boxes scattered all over the place,” he said.

Grossi said that “the important thing is that this material now is under safeguards” of the IAEA, adding that agency inspectors had managed to install cameras at the location, The AP reported.

Asked if the nuclear material will remain in Syria or be removed, Grossi said that this is “a matter that the Syrian government will have to decide.” He added: “We are not requesting them to do this or to do that. For us what’s important is that we know all the time where this (material) is until the last gram.”

Logan Mintz, a director for nuclear materials security at the Washington-based Nuclear Threat Initiative, said that natural uranium metal is not directly usable for a nuclear weapon but it could be “diverted to a covert weapons program that further processes it into plutonium for a nuclear weapon.”

She said that once deemed safe to move, the material could be “transported in certified containers” to a third country that can “safely and securely disposition it into a more chemically stable and more widely used form” for possible use in nuclear power plants.

“As with any transport of nuclear material, this movement would require robust security from theft or sabotage,” she said.