Conflict Paralyzes Sudan’s Banking System

The Central Bank of Sudan. (AFP)
The Central Bank of Sudan. (AFP)
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Conflict Paralyzes Sudan’s Banking System

The Central Bank of Sudan. (AFP)
The Central Bank of Sudan. (AFP)

The Sudanese banking sector has been mired in a state of paralysis since the eruption of war between the army and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on April 15. Amid feeble efforts to reinstate services, the North African country’s Central Bank has taken it upon itself to address the crisis.

The banking sector, including the Central Bank of Sudan, has faced significant disruptions leading to the suspension of services, all stemming from the extensive damage inflicted on their electronic systems.

It began with power outages, initially impeding operations, followed by deliberate acts of sabotage targeting control centers and core computer systems.

As a result, ATM networks were rendered inoperable and subject to widespread acts of vandalism and looting.

Additionally, e-payment applications and direct banking activities came to a standstill.

Consequently, an acute liquidity crisis unfolded, exacerbated by opportunistic “brokers” who took advantage of the prevailing wartime circumstances.

The Central Bank has declared that it has restored services at its branches and at commercial banks across the states outside the capital, denying that the looting has impacted depositors.

Observers said these actions merely scratch the surface of the wider calamity that has gripped Sudan’s banking and financial system.

Despite the resumption of operations in some branches of the Central Bank and commercial banks outside Khartoum, restoring normal banking services faces challenges.

Millions of depositors in Khartoum cannot access branches in other states given the ongoing violence. Those who have access have to wait in long queues for services that are being carried out manually after electornic services came to a halt.

The Central Bank has announced its commitment to restoring banking services nationwide.

This dire situation emerged due to the near-total absence of law enforcement and security, which lawless gangs have exploited for looting.



Three Scenarios for Russia’s Military Presence in Syria

Russian President Vladimir Putin inspecting his troops at Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia on December 12, 2017 (Sputnik/AP)
Russian President Vladimir Putin inspecting his troops at Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia on December 12, 2017 (Sputnik/AP)
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Three Scenarios for Russia’s Military Presence in Syria

Russian President Vladimir Putin inspecting his troops at Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia on December 12, 2017 (Sputnik/AP)
Russian President Vladimir Putin inspecting his troops at Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia on December 12, 2017 (Sputnik/AP)

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday he would meet former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who fled to Russia after his regime fell in Damascus. But what will Putin say to his former ally? And how might their first exchange unfold, given Russia’s role in helping Assad escape on a chaotic night?

The Kremlin, known for staging Putin’s meetings with precision, might opt to limit media coverage this time. Putin could be seen sitting at a small table with Assad, now on asylum

in Moscow, in a soundless scene—one that leaves little room for formal pleasantries.

Why has Putin announced plans to meet Assad? Is it to reprimand him? Many in Russia believe Assad’s stubbornness has hurt Moscow’s efforts, threatened its gains in Syria, and could eventually risk its key military presence there.

As details remain unclear, Russian experts are racing to analyze developments in Syria and outline scenarios for the next phase.

Some Russian experts have painted grim scenarios. A member of the prestigious Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy warned of potential risks, including a prolonged conflict with civil war elements, a humanitarian catastrophe with millions of refugees, escalating migration in Europe, and rising tensions among nations like Israel, the US, and Iran.

He also predicted a new wave of international terrorism that could reach far beyond the region.

Other experts echoed this pessimism. One posted an image of a Syrian dissident stepping on a statue of Assad’s father, warning that “this is just the beginning.” Another blamed the crisis on the “Obama curse,” citing the West’s interference, while a third shared a bleak analysis titled, “We Must Pray for Syria.”

So far, Russian media and think tanks have avoided any optimistic outlooks for Syria’s future.

Experts, who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat, believe Moscow may be preparing to handle one of three possible scenarios in Syria.

The first, most favorable for Russia’s interests, involves Moscow reaching an agreement with the new Syrian authorities to maintain its military presence for a limited period.

This could mean replacing the current 49-year agreements with a five-year deal to facilitate a gradual Russian withdrawal. Such an arrangement could help the new leadership in Syria manage Western pressure to cut ties with Moscow.

The second scenario envisions Russia giving up its airbase in Hmeimim while retaining a significant presence in Tartus. This would mirror agreements from 1972, which allowed Russian naval vessels to use the Tartus logistics center in the Mediterranean. This compromise would preserve Russia’s interests while reducing Western pressure on Damascus.

The third scenario involves a full Russian withdrawal from both bases, with Moscow later seeking agreements for shared use of air and sea ports. Such agreements, similar to those Russia has signed with other countries, are less likely to provoke Western opposition.

Regardless of the outcome, the Kremlin has yet to develop a clear strategy for dealing with the emerging situation in Syria.

Key questions remain, including how to curb Iran’s regional influence, manage Türkiye and Israel’s growing roles in Syria, and establish a new regional balance that secures Moscow’s minimum interests.