Ethiopia and Somaliland: Security in Return for Sea Access

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somaliland leader Muse Bihi Abdi  attend the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding agreement, that allows Ethiopia to use a Somaliland port, in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, January 1, 2024. (Reuters)
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somaliland leader Muse Bihi Abdi attend the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding agreement, that allows Ethiopia to use a Somaliland port, in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, January 1, 2024. (Reuters)
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Ethiopia and Somaliland: Security in Return for Sea Access

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somaliland leader Muse Bihi Abdi  attend the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding agreement, that allows Ethiopia to use a Somaliland port, in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, January 1, 2024. (Reuters)
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somaliland leader Muse Bihi Abdi attend the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding agreement, that allows Ethiopia to use a Somaliland port, in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, January 1, 2024. (Reuters)

Ethiopia’s signing on Monday of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to use the main port of Somalia's breakaway region of Somaliland has sparked a new dispute with its eastern neighbor.

Somalia declared on Tuesday its rejection of the deal and summoned its ambassador from Addis Ababa for consultations.

Landlocked Ethiopia has for years sought access to sea channels to meet its economic ambitions. Currently, it relies on neighboring Djibouti’s port for 95 percent of its marine trade.

Ethiopia has in the past sought to complete agreements with Eritrea, Sudan and Kenya over the use of their seaports. All failed for various reasons, such as war and coups in Sudan.

Mutual interests

The new MoU grants Ethiopia 20-km access to the Red Sea, specifically in the Berbera port, for a 50-year period.

In return, Ethiopia will recognize Somaliland as a republic, announced Muse Bihi Abdi leader of Somaliland, which has not been internationally recognized since it broke away from Somalia in 1991.

Under the MoU, at least 30 percent of Ethiopia’s trade transactions with Djibouti will now be process at Berbera port.

National Security Affairs Advisor to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, Redwan Hussein said the MoU will pave the way for his country to carry out marine trade in the region.

It will also grant it access to a leased military base on the Red Sea as part of the agreement, he added.

In other words, Somaliland will achieve security in a turbulent region in return for selling some of its territories to Addis Ababa.

The MoU also stipulates that Somaliland will acquire a stake in the Ethiopian Airlines national carrier.

Expert in Horn of Africa affairs Abdushekur Abdulsamad told Asharq Al-Awsat that the MoU will help Somaliland in modernizing its infrastructure, paving roads and laying railways. It will also benefit from electricity generated by the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

It could gain military support from Ethiopia once the MoU is expanded further, he added.

The agreement “shall pave the way to realize the aspiration of Ethiopia to secure access to the sea and diversify its access to seaport,” PM Abiy’s office posted on X.

“It also strengthens their security, economic and political partnership,” it said.

In a televised speech last October, Abiy declared that his country needed to pursue its right to sea access, raising concerns in the region.

He said Ethiopia “is a nation whose existence was tied to the Red Sea” and that it needed access to a port.

Moreover, he said that “peace” in the region hinged on the “balanced” relations between Ethiopia and its neighbors overlooking the Red Sea, specifically naming Djibouti, Eritrea and Somalia.

Addressing the concerns raised by his statements, he vowed that he will “never pursue his interests through war.”

Partial or full stake?

Even though the MoU did not specify Ethiopia’s exact stake in Berbera port, Abdulsamad said it could be a full stake and the facility could come under Ethiopia’s complete control.

Ethiopian authorities said they will release an official statement with the details of the MoU soon.

In 2018, Ethiopia acquired a 19 percent stake in the Berbera port, according to Dubai-based DP World, which manages the port's operations. The company itself holds a 51 percent stake, while Somaliland has the remaining 30 percent.

Ethiopia was cut off from the coast after Eritrea seceded from the country and declared independence in 1993 following a three-decade war.

Addis Ababa had maintained access to a port in Eritrea until the two countries went to war in 1998-2000, and since then Ethiopia funnels most of its trade through Djibouti.

Somaliland has not gained widespread international recognition, despite declaring autonomy from Somalia in 1991.

Ethiopia, under its former President Meles Zenawi, was the first country to recognize Somaliland’s independence.

It received informal recognition from other countries that set up diplomatic missions there or carried out trade operations.

A European Union delegation had monitored the last elections that were held in Somaliland, congratulating its people, government, electoral commission and political parties for successfully organizing them.

Kenyan and Somaliland officials have exchanged visits over the years. People of Somaliland travel through passports issued in Somaliland.

Somalia stresses that Somaliland is part of its territories. Its state news agency SONNA reported that following mediation from Djibouti, it agreed with Somaliland to resume talks to resolve their disputes.

Strongly worded Somali protest

Somalia summoned its ambassador in Ethiopia in protest against the MoU.

Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre convened an emergency cabinet meeting to discuss the MoU, which it described as a “blatant assault on the independence, sovereignty and unity of the Federal Republic of Somalia.” It deemed the agreement null and void.

Barre added that the government was determined to protect Somalia’s sovereignty. “No one can violate a part of Somalia’s territory, whether by sea or air,” he stated.

The government also said it was appealing to the United Nations, African Union, Organization of Islamic Cooperation, Arab League, European Union and regional East African grouping IGAD among others “to stand with the right for Somalia to defend its sovereignty and force Ethiopia to adhere to international laws”.

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud condemned the MoU, accusing Ethiopia of violating Somalia’s national sovereignty and regional security.

“No one can and no one will be allowed to extract an inch of Somali soil. Somalia belongs to the Somali people,” he declared in a post on the X platform.

The two Horn of Africa neighbors have a history of stormy relations and territorial feuds, fighting two wars in the late 20th century.

Abdulsamad said, however, that the tensions are now “water under the bridge.” Economic interests and policies of openness are now allowing greater rapprochement between these countries.

Eritrea

Eritrean authorities have so far not commented on the MoU, but observers believe that it will not sit well with Asmara, which will not comment on it.

Abdulsamad said Eritrea may have wasted opportunities to strike a lucrative agreement with Ethiopia to allow it access to the Assab port.

Ethiopia will not forget past agreements with Eritrea and Sudan, and it may return to them in the future, because it is working on diversifying its sources of trade operations given its massive population of 120 million people, he explained.



Israel Seeks to Cement Status Quo of Its New Occupation in Syria

Members of Israel’s special reserve unit “Alpine Mountains” during training on Mount Hermon in Syria (Israeli army) 
Members of Israel’s special reserve unit “Alpine Mountains” during training on Mount Hermon in Syria (Israeli army) 
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Israel Seeks to Cement Status Quo of Its New Occupation in Syria

Members of Israel’s special reserve unit “Alpine Mountains” during training on Mount Hermon in Syria (Israeli army) 
Members of Israel’s special reserve unit “Alpine Mountains” during training on Mount Hermon in Syria (Israeli army) 

A senior Israeli official has acknowledged that disagreements with Syria remain “very deep,” dismissing what the United States has described as a positive atmosphere surrounding negotiations. “The reality is quite different,” the official said.

The remarks indicate that Israel intends to preserve the current situation created by its recent occupation of Syrian territory and rejects any withdrawal, not only from Mount Hermon but also from the nine positions it established following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

Israel has reportedly set far-reaching conditions in return, including barring Syria from deploying anti-aircraft missiles.

According to a report by Maariv political correspondent Anna Barsky, intensive talks held in Paris over two days last week, involving representatives from Israel, Syria, and the United States, produced only a limited outcome.

The discussions resulted in an agreement to establish a coordination mechanism aimed at preventing field-level friction, to be managed with active US involvement, but fell short of any broader political or security breakthrough.

Barsky wrote that there is currently no possibility of reaching a security agreement between Israel and Syria. While she cited Syria’s demand for an Israeli withdrawal from Syrian Mount Hermon as the main obstacle, the report suggests that Israel’s own demands are the primary factor blocking progress.

According to the senior official, Israel’s conditions include maintaining the new reality that emerged after Assad’s downfall in December 2024. This includes areas formerly designated as a UN-monitored buffer zone, an additional strip deeper along the border covering about 450 square kilometers, and all the peaks of Mount Hermon.

Israel is also seeking to strip the Syrian army of what it defines as strategic weapons, including advanced anti-aircraft systems or any arms that could disrupt the existing military balance. In addition, it demands that no foreign forces be present in Syria if they could restrict the Israeli army’s freedom of movement, specifically Russian or Turkish forces.

The report noted that the US administration, while pressing both sides to advance toward security understandings, supports Israeli demands it considers essential to Israel’s security, particularly remaining on Mount Hermon, though Washington is expected to propose compromise arrangements.

At the same time, Barsky reported growing concern in Tel Aviv over a parallel Syrian track: efforts by Damascus to coordinate with Moscow to redeploy Russian military forces in Syria, especially in the south.

Israel views such a move as a direct threat to its operational freedom and has worked to thwart initiatives aimed at restoring a Russian presence there. According to Maariv, Israel has conveyed a firm message to Damascus, Moscow, and Washington that it will not tolerate Russian forces in southern Syria.

The newspaper linked this stance to past experience, noting that while Russia maintained two main bases in Syria - Hmeimim Air Base and the naval facility in Tartus - it also deployed military police and observation posts near the disengagement zone in the south. Israel believes a return to that model would impose new operational constraints and alter the rules of engagement.

Although Russia’s footprint in Syria shrank after Assad’s fall, Israeli assessments suggest Moscow is seeking, in coordination with Syria’s new authorities, to rebuild its influence despite its preoccupation with the war in Ukraine.

The report said that both Moscow and Damascus view a Russian presence in southern Syria as strategically valuable, particularly as a means of constraining Israel.

 

 


Hezbollah Raises Civil War Threat Over Disarmament Plan

Hezbollah members take an oath in front of a monument to Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in Beirut in 2022 (AP file photo)
Hezbollah members take an oath in front of a monument to Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in Beirut in 2022 (AP file photo)
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Hezbollah Raises Civil War Threat Over Disarmament Plan

Hezbollah members take an oath in front of a monument to Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in Beirut in 2022 (AP file photo)
Hezbollah members take an oath in front of a monument to Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in Beirut in 2022 (AP file photo)

Hezbollah escalated its response to Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam over plans to press ahead with restricting weapons to the state and extending the move to areas north of the Litani River, raising the specter of civil war as tensions over the issue intensify.

Mahmoud Qamati, vice president of Hezbollah’s political council, said in a televised interview that statements by the president and prime minister on confining weapons north of the Litani meant the government was heading toward chaos and instability, and toward an internal situation that no one would accept, possibly even a civil war.

The government last week tasked the Lebanese army commander, during a cabinet session, with preparing a plan to restrict weapons north of the Litani, after announcing that the objectives of the first phase of the plan to confine arms to the state south of the river had been achieved.

Qamati’s Position

Hezbollah says that before any discussion begins on the fate of its weapons outside the area south of the river, Israel must stop violating Lebanese sovereignty, withdraw from points it occupies, and release prisoners.

Qamati said on Tuesday that some parties were insisting on implementing foreign dictates and offering concessions to Israel for free and without any return.

He added that the army’s role was not to protect Israel from any military action from Lebanon, but to confront Israel, which he said occupies Lebanese territory.

Accusing some members of the government of collusion to implement a US-Israeli plan for personal calculations, Qamati called for a return to reason, wisdom, and “Lebanese-Lebanese dialogue”.

War Against Whom?

Lebanese Industry Minister Joe Issa El-Khoury expressed surprise at Hezbollah’s threat of a civil war, asking between whom such a war would take place, between an illegitimate armed group and the legitimate army.

Civil wars, he said, usually erupt between illegitimate armed groups, warning that if Hezbollah did not hand over its weapons, other unarmed groups might rearm on the grounds that the army was unable to protect them.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, El-Khoury said it was unacceptable for one group alone to be armed to fight Israel, adding that Lebanon either builds a state together or looks for other projects. While the region was moving forward with strong momentum, he said, Lebanon was moving backward.

El-Khoury said the army’s forthcoming plan to restrict weapons north of the Litani should not include multiple phases, but rather a single phase running until the end of March.

He stressed that linking implementation to the army’s capabilities and resources was misplaced.

He recalled that the strongest militia after the civil war was the Lebanese Forces, which later committed to building the state and handed over its weapons to the army, thereby eliminating the need for army deployment in areas where the group had been present.

That, he said, was what should happen today with Hezbollah.

Party Warning

Sources familiar with Hezbollah’s internal thinking told Asharq Al-Awsat that the group did not want a clash with the army, and that the army did not intend to seize weapons by force.

The warning issued by Qamati, they said, was directed at political forces pushing for disarmament by force. The sources added that the current moves were an attempt to create the right conditions to reach a consensus solution to the issue.

Remarks by Rajji

Hezbollah’s veiled threats of civil war coincided with a fierce campaign by lawmakers from the Shiite duo, Amal and Hezbollah, against Lebanese Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji.

In a televised interview, Rajji said that the ceasefire declaration approved by the government provided for Hezbollah’s weapons to be confined in return for a halt to Israeli attacks, and that as long as the weapons were not fully confined, Israel, unfortunately, had the right to continue its attacks.

Hezbollah lawmaker Ali Ammar described the remarks as dangerous, saying they required a clear and firm stance from the president and prime minister, as well as a halt to such statements, which he said inflamed internal divisions and served only to benefit the enemy.

Qassem Hashem, a member of the Development and Liberation bloc, said Rajji’s comments went beyond impropriety to justifying Israeli aggression against Lebanon, calling it a violation of sovereignty and a blow to national dignity.

He said the remarks should not pass without accountability in cabinet, and that in a fully sovereign state, the minister would be dismissed.

Another lawmaker from the bloc, Mohammed Khawaja, asked the president and prime minister whether Rajji was truly Lebanon’s foreign minister, accusing him of focusing on finding justifications for Israel.

In response, El-Khoury told Asharq Al-Awsat that Rajji’s remarks reflected the government’s position, not a personal view.

He said the agreement approved by Hezbollah listed the parties authorized to carry weapons and did not include Hezbollah, meaning that the group’s insistence on keeping its arms constituted a breach of the agreement and provided Israel with a pretext to refuse to implement its provisions.


Sources to Asharq Al-Awsat: Gaza Committee Members to Meet Mladenov at US Embassy in Cairo

Palestinian Ali Shaath, a leading candidate to head the Gaza Administration Committee, in a photo released by his family.
Palestinian Ali Shaath, a leading candidate to head the Gaza Administration Committee, in a photo released by his family.
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Sources to Asharq Al-Awsat: Gaza Committee Members to Meet Mladenov at US Embassy in Cairo

Palestinian Ali Shaath, a leading candidate to head the Gaza Administration Committee, in a photo released by his family.
Palestinian Ali Shaath, a leading candidate to head the Gaza Administration Committee, in a photo released by his family.

Palestinian sources reported that figures nominated to lead a temporary Gaza Administration Committee are scheduled to meet on Thursday with Bulgarian diplomat Nickolay Mladenov, the nominee to head the executive body of the Board of Peace, at the US embassy in Cairo.

Sources from civil society and Palestinian factions, who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat on condition of anonymity, said that meetings of some factions in Cairo on Wednesday would discuss several issues related to the second phase, including agreement on the names put forward for the Gaza Administration Committee.

They added that there was preliminary acceptance of these names.

The sources said that despite reservations by the Palestinian Authority over the committee, some of its members, and the fact that its work would report to the Board of Peace to be announced by US President Donald Trump, assessments suggest there will be no opposition to it given the current internal Palestinian situation and the urgent need for Hamas to exit the governance scene in Gaza.

The Palestinian Authority had hoped that a minister from the government led by Mohammad Mustafa would assume responsibility for the committee, but Israel and the United States opposed that option.

Arrangements for travel

Regarding travel for committee members based inside Gaza, the sources said arrangements were underway, though the mechanism had not yet been finalized as of Wednesday afternoon. They said members based outside the enclave, in European countries or in Ramallah, including Ali Shaath, who is seen as the likely head of the committee, were expected to arrive in Cairo on Wednesday.

The sources said those already in Egypt were prepared, and that members inside Gaza could be included virtually if travel proved impossible, though that scenario was not expected.

Meetings with Mladenov

The meeting will focus on the committee’s mandate to administer Gaza.

An announcement is expected once agreement is reached on the members and their responsibilities, either on Wednesday or Thursday, ahead of Trump’s anticipated announcement of the Board of Peace. Mladenov would head the board’s executive body and oversee the technocratic committee.

Several meetings between committee members and Mladenov are planned, all at the US embassy, according to some sources, who added that a dedicated financial fund had been designated to support the committee’s work.

Multiple sources said the committee would assume full governmental responsibilities in Gaza and that Hamas would expedite the handover of authority and provide all necessary support.

Asharq Al-Awsat reported on Tuesday evening some of the names expected to join the new committee, which is set to comprise between 15 and 18 members. Most are from Gaza, comprising mainly businessmen, economists, civil society leaders, and academics.

Names obtained by Asharq Al-Awsat include Ali Shaath, a former deputy transport minister in the Palestinian Authority; Abdel Karim Ashour, head of the Agricultural Relief Committees and a civil society activist; Aed Yaghi, head of the Medical Relief Society; Aed Abu Ramadan, head of the Gaza Chamber of Commerce; Jabr al-Daour, president of Palestine University; Bashir al-Rais, an engineering consultant; Omar Shomali, head of Palestinian Telecommunications in Gaza; Ali Barhoum, an engineer and consultant at Rafah municipality, and lawyer Hanaa Terzi.

A civil society source said there was broad agreement on these names so far, adding it was not yet known whether Israel had approved them. Changes could still be made if disputes emerge over any of the nominees.