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Losses and Gains: What Next after Western Strikes against the Houthis?

An aircraft takes off to join the US-led coalition to conduct air strikes against military targets in Yemen, aimed at the Iran-backed Houthi militias that have been targeting international shipping in the Red Sea, from an undisclosed location, in this handout picture released on January 12, 2024. (US Central Command via X/Handout via Reuters)
An aircraft takes off to join the US-led coalition to conduct air strikes against military targets in Yemen, aimed at the Iran-backed Houthi militias that have been targeting international shipping in the Red Sea, from an undisclosed location, in this handout picture released on January 12, 2024. (US Central Command via X/Handout via Reuters)
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Losses and Gains: What Next after Western Strikes against the Houthis?

An aircraft takes off to join the US-led coalition to conduct air strikes against military targets in Yemen, aimed at the Iran-backed Houthi militias that have been targeting international shipping in the Red Sea, from an undisclosed location, in this handout picture released on January 12, 2024. (US Central Command via X/Handout via Reuters)
An aircraft takes off to join the US-led coalition to conduct air strikes against military targets in Yemen, aimed at the Iran-backed Houthi militias that have been targeting international shipping in the Red Sea, from an undisclosed location, in this handout picture released on January 12, 2024. (US Central Command via X/Handout via Reuters)

The American and British strikes against weapons caches and camps of the Iran-backed Houthi militias in Yemen didn't come as a surprise after Washington and London had threatened to carry them out days earlier in response to the militias’ attacks on Red Sea shipping.

However, questions have been raised over the impact of the strikes on the Yemeni crisis and the power of the Houthis themselves.

The strikes were a precedent in the Yemeni conflict and may lead to new developments and veer the political process off its course. The United Nations had declared in December a roadmap for peace that the Yemeni warring parties were set to discuss this month.

Mark Kimmitt, former US Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the strikes succeeded in hitting their targets, even though the order to take them may have come too late.

He said it would be “interesting” to see whether the Houthis understood the consequences of their continued attacks in the Red Sea.

They must think twice before retaliating, he remarked, but added that since they are the Houthis, they will likely respond.

Kimmitt predicted that more strikes will be carried out if the initial barrage didn’t hit all their targets.

The United States carried out an additional strike against the Houthis on Friday. The guided missile destroyer Carney used Tomahawk missiles in the follow-on strike early on Saturday local time "to degrade the Houthis' ability to attack maritime vessels, including commercial vessels," the US Central Command said in a statement on X, formerly Twitter.

US and British warplanes, ships and submarines on Thursday launched missiles against targets across Yemen controlled by the militias, which have cast their maritime campaign as support for Palestinians under siege by Israel in Hamas-ruled Gaza.

Kimmitt said the Houthi escalation in response to the raids depends on what Iran wants. He stressed that the militias are being trained, equipped and supported by Tehran.

Moreover, he refuted claims by Iran that it has no control over its proxies in the region. Tehran says the groups take their decisions independently from it, while Kimmitt stated that US assessments show otherwise.

Furthermore, he added that it was necessary for the Houthis to be again designated as terrorist.

The Biden administration had removed their designation soon after it came to power, believing that the Houthis would become more moderate and less hostile.

The contrary happened, noted Kimmitt. The Houthis today are worse than they were before the designation was removed, he went to say, adding that he believes Washington may decide to blacklist them again.

Political gains

Aide to the Yemeni prime minister Ali al-Sarari said the Houthis have made political gains after the western strikes.

He explained that the militias will likely gain more support in Yemen and beyond. They will be seen in the same vein as Hamas in that they are both fighting Israel and the US because of the war on Gaza and Israel’s escalation in the occupied West Bank.

He noted the recent regional efforts, led by Saudi Arabia and Oman, to speed up the peace process in Yemen and agree on a roadmap. The western strikes will only strengthen the Houthis’ negotiations position, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

The Houthis have gained greater support on the local and Arab levels, he continued, expecting that the peace process will probably come to a halt after the strikes.

Moreover, he doubted the strikes had really impacted the Houthis’ military capabilities, explaining that the West had warned that it would carry out the attacks, so the militias had ample time to move their weapons to safer locations, such as caves and other hideouts.

In addition, the strikes killed and wounded no more than six Houthis, which is a small figure compared to the 73 raids the West carried, meaning they weren’t very effective, he said.

Shirking responsibilities

It seems the US and its western allies are at a loss over how to protect their economic interests and achieve a political settlement in Yemen while still keeping the Houthis in the picture despite their attacks on Red Sea shipping.

Yemeni political researcher Abduljalil Alhaqab echoed al-Sarari's remarks that the western strikes will strengthen the Houthi position and claim they are confronting Israel and the West.

What is actually happening really serves Israel, the Houthis and Iran, all of whom are opposed by the Yemeni people, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Ultimately, all these developments will severely harm the Yemeni people themselves, their state and political and economic future, he lamented.

Alhaqab said the western strikes will not impact the Houthis’ military capabilities unless they are carried out over a prolonged campaign.

He said defeating the Houthis demands a military solution on the ground and support to the Yemenis from the international community. The Houthis have the means to develop their capabilities, make up for their losses and recruit more fighters, he warned.

Meanwhile, a Yemeni government official said the Houthis’ intransigence will push them to expand the confrontation, which may escalate the situation and incur greater dangers, disasters and tragedies in Yemen and the region, and allow them to shirk their responsibilities towards peace.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on condition of anonymity, he criticized the international community for dealing with the Red Sea tensions without consulting the legitimate Yemeni government.

He noted that the international community’s pressure on Yemen had allowed the Houthis to expand their influence over the war-torn country over the years. It is now time for it to realize that its interests cannot be secured without ending the Houthi coup and their deployment at Yemeni ports and coastal regions.

Limited impact

The Houthis have vowed to retaliate to the western strikes by attacking American and British vessels in the Red Sea. The militias’ leaders warned the two powers that they will not be the ones who decide how the fight ends.

Yemeni political researchers Salah Ali Salah said the western strikes will have a “very limited” impact on the Houthis.

Politically, the militias can escalate their tone to underscore their claims that they are confronting foreign powers, and in return, they will gain more local support and recruit more fighters, he explained.

Moreover, he said the West lost the element of surprise when it warned that it would carry out attacks in response to the Houthi attacks. The warning allowed the militias to take precautions.

Furthermore, he revealed that the strikes actually hit positions the Arab coalition had previously attacked. He speculated that the attacks could not have been aimed at weakening the Houthis’ military capabilities, but simply delivering a message.

Weakening the Houthis’ military capabilities demands operations on the ground, he went on to say.

Another political analyst warned that the Houthis will exploit the strikes to garner Arab support, including financial donations and even recruit fighters. This will only bolster Iran’s position in the region.

Tehran wants to sow division among Arabs, which will favor Israel, he told Asharq Al-Awsat from Sanaa on condition of anonymity.

The Houthis believe that the US and its allies don’t want to wage an open confrontation with them. Rather, the militias are carrying out the attacks in the Red Sea to improve their position at any negotiations table.

The days will tell what sort of confrontation is in store for the Houthis, he said, noting the fate of ISIS in Iraq which may be in wait for the militias if they continue with their intransigence and hostile behavior.

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Features

Report: Europe’s Options in the Strait of Hormuz Are Few and Risky

A cargo ship in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from northern Ras al-Khaimah, near the border with Oman’s Musandam, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in United Arab Emirates, March 11, 2026. (Reuters file)
A cargo ship in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from northern Ras al-Khaimah, near the border with Oman’s Musandam, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in United Arab Emirates, March 11, 2026. (Reuters file)
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Report: Europe’s Options in the Strait of Hormuz Are Few and Risky

A cargo ship in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from northern Ras al-Khaimah, near the border with Oman’s Musandam, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in United Arab Emirates, March 11, 2026. (Reuters file)
A cargo ship in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from northern Ras al-Khaimah, near the border with Oman’s Musandam, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in United Arab Emirates, March 11, 2026. (Reuters file)

When senior officials from 40 countries met virtually this week to discuss how to bring shipping traffic back to the Strait of Hormuz, Italy’s foreign minister had a proposal. He urged them to establish a “humanitarian corridor” allowing safe passage for fertilizer and other crucial goods headed to impoverished nations.

The plan, described after the meeting by Italian officials, was one of several competing proposals from Europe and beyond that were meant to prevent the Iran war from causing widespread hunger. But it was not endorsed by the envoys on the call, and the meeting ended with no concrete plan to reopen the strait, militarily or otherwise, reported the New York Times.

European leaders are under pressure from US President Donald Trump to commit military assets, immediately, to end Iran’s blockage of the strait and tame a growing global energy and economic crisis. They have refused to meet his demands by sending warships now. Instead, they are hotly debating what to do to help unclog the vital shipping lane once the war ends.

But they are struggling to rally around a plan of action.

That partly reflects the slow gears of diplomacy in Europe and the sheer number of nations, including Gulf states, that are invested in safeguarding the strait once the war ends. Many nations involved in the talks, including Italy and Germany, have insisted that any international effort be blessed by the United Nations, which could slow action further. Military leaders will take up the issue in discussions next week.

More than anything, the struggle reflects how difficult it could be to actually secure the strait under a fragile peace — for Europe or for anyone else. None of the options available to Europe, the Gulf states and other countries look foolproof, even under the assumption that the major fighting will have stopped.

Naval escorts

French officials, including President Emmanuel Macron, have repeatedly raised the possibility that French naval vessels could help escort merchant ships through the strait after the war ends.

American officials have pushed for Europeans and other allies, like Japan, to escort ships sailing under their own countries’ flags.

Naval escorts are expensive. Also, their air defense systems alone might not be sufficient to stop some types of attacks, like drone strikes, should Iran choose to start firing again.

“What does the world expect, what does Donald Trump expect, from let’s say a handful or two handfuls of European frigates there in the Strait of Hormuz,” Defense Minister Boris Pistorius of Germany said last month, “to achieve what the powerful American Navy cannot manage there alone?”

Sweep for mines

German and Belgian officials, among others, say they are prepared to send minesweepers to clear the strait of explosives after the war.

Western military leaders aren’t convinced that Iran has actually mined the strait, in part because some Iranian ships still pass through it. So while minesweepers might be deployed as part of a naval escort, they might not have much to do.

Help from above

Another option is sending fighter jets and drones to intercept any Iranian air assaults on ships. American officials have pushed Europe to do this.

It is quite expensive and still not guaranteed to work. Iran can attack ships with a single soldier in a speedboat, and if just a few attempts succeed, that could be enough to spook insurers and shipowners out of attempting passage.

Diplomacy

Another option are negotiations and economic leverage to pressure Iran to refrain from future attacks, and deploy a variety of military means to enforce that. This effort would go beyond Europe. On Thursday, the German foreign ministry called on China to use its influence with Iran “constructively” to help end the hostilities.

This option is expensive and still not guaranteed. Negotiations seem to have done little to stop the fighting. But this may be Europe’s best bet, for lack of a better one.

What if none of that works?

Iranian officials said this week that they would continue to control traffic through the strait after the war. They have already made plans to make ships pay tolls for passing through the strait, which is supposed to be an unfettered waterway under international law.

A continued blockage risks global economic disaster. Countries around the world rely on shipments through the strait for fuel and fertilizer, among other necessities.

In some regions, shortages loom. In others, like Europe, high oil, gas and fertilizer prices have raised the specter of spiking inflation and cratering economic growth.

“The big threat right now is stagflation,” said Hanns Koenig, a managing director at Aurora Energy Research, a Berlin consultancy. “You’ve got higher prices, and they strangle the tiny growth we would have seen this year.”

*Jim Tankersley for the New York Times

Features

US Military Jets Hit in Iran War Are the First Shot Down by Enemy Fire in Over 20 Years

An F-15E Strike Eagle turns toward the Panamint range over Death Valley National Park, Calif., on Feb. 27, 2017. (AP)
An F-15E Strike Eagle turns toward the Panamint range over Death Valley National Park, Calif., on Feb. 27, 2017. (AP)
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US Military Jets Hit in Iran War Are the First Shot Down by Enemy Fire in Over 20 Years

An F-15E Strike Eagle turns toward the Panamint range over Death Valley National Park, Calif., on Feb. 27, 2017. (AP)
An F-15E Strike Eagle turns toward the Panamint range over Death Valley National Park, Calif., on Feb. 27, 2017. (AP)

Iran shooting down two American military jets marks an exceedingly rare assault for the US that has not happened in more than 20 years and shows Iran’s continued ability to hit back despite President Donald Trump asserting it has been “completely decimated.”

The attacks came five weeks after US and Israeli strikes first pounded Iran, with Trump saying earlier this week that Tehran's “ability to launch missiles and drones is dramatically curtailed."

Iran shot down a US F15-E Strike Eagle fighter jet Friday, with one service member getting rescued and the search still underway for a second, US officials say. Iranian state media also said a US A-10 attack aircraft crashed after being hit by Iranian defense forces.

The last time a US warplane was shot down by enemy fire in combat was an A-10 Thunderbolt II during the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, said retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Houston Cantwell, a former F-16 fighter pilot.

But, he said, that’s because the US had largely been fighting insurgents who didn’t have the same anti-aircraft capabilities. The fact that there have not been more fighter jets lost in Iran, Cantwell said, is a testament to the capabilities of US forces.

"The fact that this hasn’t happened until now is an absolute miracle,” said Cantwell, who served four combat tours and is now a senior resident fellow at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. “We’re flying combat missions here, they are being shot at every day.”

Shoulder-fired missile likely used, experts say

US Central Command said in a statement Wednesday that American forces have flown more than 13,000 missions in the Iran war while striking more than 12,300 targets.

After more than a month of punishing US-Israeli airstrikes, a degraded Iranian military nonetheless remains a stubborn foe. Its steady stream of strikes against Israel and Gulf Arab neighbors have been causing regional upheaval and global economic shock.

When it comes to American dominance over Iran's airspace, there’s still a distinction between air superiority and air supremacy, said Behnam Ben Taleblu, Iran program senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a hawkish Washington think tank.

“A disabled air defense system is not a destroyed air defense system,” he said. “We shouldn’t be shocked that they’re still fighting.”

American planes have been flying missions at lower altitudes, which makes them more vulnerable to Iran's missiles, Taleblu said. It’s possible that Iran fired at the F-15 with a surface-to-air missile, but it's more likely that a portable, shoulder-fired missile was used, he said. Those are much harder to detect and reflect how Iran is “weak but still lethal.”

“This is a regime that is fighting for its life,” he said.

Mark Cancian, a retired Marine colonel and a senior defense adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, agreed that a shoulder-fired missile was likely used against the fighter jet.

Nonetheless, the American air war against Iran has been a “tremendous success” so far, he said.

To put things in perspective, he said the loss rate for American warplanes flying over Germany during World War II was 3% at one point, which would equal about 350 warplanes in the US war against Iran.

“But then there’s the political side — you have an American public that is accustomed to fighting bloodless wars,” Cancian said. “Then a large part of the country doesn’t support the war. So to them, any loss is unacceptable.”

Pilots are trained on what to do if their plane is hit

The last US jet shot down in combat was struck by an Iraqi surface-to-air missile over Baghdad on April 8, 2003. The pilot safely ejected and was rescued, according to the Air Force.

In high-threat environments like missions over Iran, Cantwell, the retired general, said an aviator's blood pressure goes up and they become highly alert to incoming missiles. Those are typically either infrared- or radar-guided missiles, he said, requiring different evasive tactics.

If they are hit and need to eject from their aircraft, they are trained on what to do next, he said.

Pilots learn to check for wounds after a violent ejection and the shock of a missile explosion and, most crucially, how they are going to communicate their location so rescuers can find them.

At the same time, he said, the enemy is likely working to intercept the communications or even spoof the location.

Helicopters are more at risk than other aircraft

The planes that went down Friday were not the first crewed American aircraft to be lost overall in Iran.

A military helicopter and airplane exploded in 1980 during an aborted mission to rescue several dozen American hostages at the US embassy in Tehran, according to the Air Force Historical Support Division.

After a series of setbacks, including severe dust storms and mechanical failures, the mission was called off. As the aircraft took off, the rotor blades of one of the RH-53 helicopters collided with an EC-130 aircraft full of fuel and both exploded, killing eight.

More US helicopters have been shot down in recent decades, including a MH-47 Army Chinook helicopter that was struck by a rocket-propelled grenade in Afghanistan in 2005, killing 16. Helicopters are more dangerous because “the lower and the slower, the more susceptible you are,” Cantwell said.

That’s why those who went out on this week's rescue missions, likely in helicopters, he said, did “such a brave and honorable act.”

Features

Iran Leaders Join Crowds on Tehran’s Streets to Project Control in Wartime

An Iranian flag is seen on a residential building that was damaged by recent strikes at Vahdat town in Karaj, southwest of Tehran on April 3, 2026. (AFP)
An Iranian flag is seen on a residential building that was damaged by recent strikes at Vahdat town in Karaj, southwest of Tehran on April 3, 2026. (AFP)
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Iran Leaders Join Crowds on Tehran’s Streets to Project Control in Wartime

An Iranian flag is seen on a residential building that was damaged by recent strikes at Vahdat town in Karaj, southwest of Tehran on April 3, 2026. (AFP)
An Iranian flag is seen on a residential building that was damaged by recent strikes at Vahdat town in Karaj, southwest of Tehran on April 3, 2026. (AFP)

After more than a month of being stalked by targeted assassinations, Iran's leadership has adopted a new tactic to show it is still in control - with senior officials walking openly in the streets among small crowds who have gathered in support of the regime.

In recent days, Iran's president and foreign minister have separately mixed with groups of several hundred people in central Tehran. On Tuesday, state television aired footage of the two posing for selfies, talking to members of the public and shaking hands with supporters who had gathered in public areas.

According to insiders and analysts, the appearances are part of a calculated effort by Iran's theocratic leadership to project resilience and authority — not only over the vital Strait of Hormuz but also over the population — despite a sustained US-Israeli campaign aimed at "obliterating" it.

One insider close to the hardline establishment said such public outings are intended to show that the regime is "unshaken by strikes and that it remains in control and vigilant" as the war grinds on.

The US-Israeli war ‌on Iran began on ‌February 28 with the killing of veteran Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several senior military ‌commanders ⁠in waves of ⁠strikes that have since continued to target top officials.

Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has not been seen in public since taking over on March 8 from his father. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, meanwhile, was removed from Israel's hit list amid mediation efforts last month, including by Pakistan, to bring Tehran and Washington together for talks to end the war.

Talks aimed at ending the war have since appeared to have petered out, as Tehran brands US peace proposals "unrealistic". Against that backdrop, recent public appearances by President Masoud Pezeshkian and Araqchi appear designed to project defiance, if not a convincing display of public support.

A senior Iranian source said officials' public presence demonstrates that "the establishment is not intimidated by Israel's targeted killing of top Iranian ⁠figures".

Asked whether Iran's foreign minister or president were on any sort of kill list, an Israeli ‌military spokesperson, Nadav Shoshani, said on Friday he would not "speak about specific personnel."

NIGHTLY RALLIES TO ‌SHOW RESILIENCE

Despite widespread destruction, Tehran appears emboldened by surviving weeks of intense US-Israeli attacks, firing on Gulf countries hosting US troops and demonstrating its ability ‌to effectively block the Strait of Hormuz.

On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump vowed more aggressive strikes on Iran, without offering a timeline ‌for ending hostilities. Tehran responded by warning the United States and Israel that "more crushing, broader and more destructive" attacks were in store.

Encouraged by clerical rulers, supporters of the regime take to the streets each night, filling public squares to show loyalty even as bombs rain down across the country.

Analysts say the establishment is also seeking to raise the "political and reputational" cost of the strikes at a time when civilian casualties are deeply disturbing for Iranians.

Omid Memarian, ‌a senior Iran analyst at DAWN, a Washington-based think tank, said the decision to send officials into gatherings reflects a layered strategy, including an effort to sustain the morale of core supporters ⁠at a moment of acute pressure.

"The system ⁠relies heavily on this base; if its supporters withdraw from public space, its ability to project control and authority weakens significantly," Memarian said.

Speaking to state television, some in the crowds voice unwavering loyalty to Iran's leadership; others oppose the bombing of their country regardless of politics; and some have a stake in the system, including government employees, students and others whose livelihoods are tied to it.

Hadi Ghaemi, head of the New York-based Center for Human Rights in Iran, said the establishment is using such loyal crowds as human shields to raise the cost of any assassination attempts.

"By being in the middle of large crowds they have protections that would make Israeli-American attacks against them very bloody and generate sympathy worldwide," he said.

POTENTIAL PROTESTERS STAY OFF STREETS AT NIGHT

The Islamic republic emerged from a 1979 revolution backed by millions of Iranians. But decades of rule marked by corruption, repression and mismanagement have thinned that support, alienating many ordinary people.

While there has been little sign so far of anti-government protests that erupted in January and abated after a deadly crackdown, the establishment has adopted harsh measures, such as arrests, executions and large-scale deployment of security forces, to prevent any sparks of dissent.

Rights groups have warned about "rushed executions" during wartime after Iran hanged at least seven political prisoners during the war.

"Many potential protesters are frightened by the continuing presence of armed men and violent crowds in the streets and largely stay at home once darkness falls," Ghaemi said.