Three Conditions for Israeli War on Lebanon, Last One is Political

Lebanese army soldiers inspect the wreckage of a car after an Israeli airstrike targeted the village of Bourj el-Moulouk, approximately 18 kilometers from the city of Nabatieh, last week (AFP)
Lebanese army soldiers inspect the wreckage of a car after an Israeli airstrike targeted the village of Bourj el-Moulouk, approximately 18 kilometers from the city of Nabatieh, last week (AFP)
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Three Conditions for Israeli War on Lebanon, Last One is Political

Lebanese army soldiers inspect the wreckage of a car after an Israeli airstrike targeted the village of Bourj el-Moulouk, approximately 18 kilometers from the city of Nabatieh, last week (AFP)
Lebanese army soldiers inspect the wreckage of a car after an Israeli airstrike targeted the village of Bourj el-Moulouk, approximately 18 kilometers from the city of Nabatieh, last week (AFP)

Before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ended his recent visit to Washington, he announced to the US Congress that his government aims to neutralize the security threats posed by the Lebanon-based Hezbollah on Israel’s northern front.

The Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation reported that the Israeli army has informed the political leadership that preparations for a large-scale ground maneuver are complete, and a strong aerial operation in Lebanon is planned before the maneuver.

Opinions differ on the scope and timing of this maneuver, but there is agreement that Tel Aviv is pressing forward with plans for a major attack on Lebanon unless Hezbollah withdraws from south of the Litani River.

Military expert Brig. Gen. Khalil Helou commented that “three new military units have moved to the northern front and are on alert for a significant military operation.”

He explained that these units need training to work together and coordinate on the front lines.

“When the Israeli army announces a maneuver, it might just be an exercise, but it could also be a prelude to a surprise military attack, leading to a major ground operation,” added Helou.

Helou reminded that “since the end of the 2006 war, Israel has been preparing for a new and extended conflict with Hezbollah, which requires three main components: logistical, military, and political readiness.”

“Our biggest concern is that Israel has achieved political readiness following Netanyahu’s visit to Washington,” cautioned Helou.

Before announcing the maneuver, the commander of the northern front visited the Lebanon border, emphasizing that the airstrike on Yemen’s Hodeidah port was a clear message to Iran and Hezbollah about the reach of the Israeli Air Force.

Helou noted that Israel “is determined to push Hezbollah away from the northern border at any cost, including military action, as Netanyahu outlined in his speech to the US Congress.”

He highlighted that “while ground units are preparing, the Israeli Air Force plays a crucial role in the conflict.”

This announcement follows a large-scale exercise conducted by the Israeli army on May 28, which tested the readiness of its forces for a full-scale war on the northern front.

The Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation stated that the exercise was carried out unexpectedly to enhance the army's preparedness for various scenarios with Lebanon.

Dr. Sami Nader, Director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs, explained that the new maneuver is part of “pressure on Lebanon, especially as it coincides with Netanyahu’s visit to the US and meetings with top American officials from both parties.”

Nader told Asharq Al-Awsat that “Tel Aviv is determined to remove the threat on the northern front, whether through diplomatic efforts or military action, while Hezbollah insists on maintaining the situation as it was before the October 6, 2023, Al-Aqsa Flood operation.”

“It appears that the Israeli army is moving towards implementing Netanyahu’s threats, despite reported disagreements between him and the military leadership,” said Nader.

Despite efforts by the US and other major powers to prevent new conflicts, particularly with Lebanon, Nader stressed that Israel “is determined to change the rules of engagement, especially after Hezbollah's recent unveiling of significant aerial capabilities that threaten Israel’s security, though these capabilities are not comparable to Tel Aviv’s extensive military assets.”



Iran’s Rulers Caught Between Trump’s Crackdown and a Fragile Economy 

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting with Iranian students in Tehran, Iran, March 12, 2025. Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via Reuters
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting with Iranian students in Tehran, Iran, March 12, 2025. Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via Reuters
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Iran’s Rulers Caught Between Trump’s Crackdown and a Fragile Economy 

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting with Iranian students in Tehran, Iran, March 12, 2025. Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via Reuters
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting with Iranian students in Tehran, Iran, March 12, 2025. Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via Reuters

For Iran's clerical leaders, engaging with the "Great Satan" to hammer out a nuclear deal and ease crippling sanctions may for once be the lesser of two evils.

Though it harbors deep mistrust of the United States, and President Donald Trump in particular, Tehran is increasingly concerned that mounting public anger over economic hardships could erupt into mass protests, four Iranian officials said.

That's why, despite the unyielding stance and defiant rhetoric of Iran's clerical leaders in public, there is a pragmatic willingness within Tehran's corridors of power to strike a deal with Washington, the people said.

Tehran's concerns were exacerbated by Trump's speedy revival of his first term's "maximum pressure" campaign to drive Iran's oil exports towards zero with more sanctions and bring the country's already fragile economy to its knees, they said.

President Masoud Pezeshkian has repeatedly highlighted the severity of the economic situation in the country, stating that it is more challenging than during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, and pointing this month to the latest round of US sanctions targeting tankers carrying Iranian oil.

One of the Iranian officials said leaders were concerned that cutting off all diplomatic avenues might further fuel domestic discontent against Ali Khamenei - given he is the ultimate decision maker in the country.

"There is no question whatsoever that the man who has been the Supreme Leader since 1989 and his foreign policy preferences are more guilty than anybody else for the state of affairs," said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute think-tank in Washington.

It was Iran's weak economy that pushed Khamenei to give tentative backing to the nuclear agreement struck with major powers in 2015, leading to a lifting of Western sanctions and an improvement in economic conditions. But then-President Trump's renewed onslaught against Iran after he pulled out of the nuclear pact in 2018 squeezed living standards once more.

"The situation worsens daily. I can't afford my rent, pay my bills, or buy clothes for my children," said Alireza Yousefi, 42, a teacher from Isfahan. "Now, more sanctions will make survival impossible."

Iran's foreign ministry did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.

'ON EQUAL TERMS'

At the same time as upping the pressure on Iran with new sanctions and threats of military action, Trump also opened the door to negotiations by sending a letter to Khamenei proposing nuclear talks.

Khamenei spurned the offer on Wednesday, saying repeatedly that Washington was imposing excessive demands and that Tehran would not be bullied into negotiations.

"If we enter negotiations while the other side is imposing maximum pressure, we will be negotiating from a weak position and will achieve nothing," Iran's top diplomat Abbas Araqchi told the Iran newspaper in an interview published on Thursday.

"The other side must be convinced that the policy of pressure is ineffective - only then can we sit at the negotiating table on equal terms," he said.

One senior Iranian official said there was no alternative but to reach an agreement, and that it was possible, though the road ahead would be bumpy given Iran's distrust of Trump after he abandoned the 2015 deal.

Iran has staved off economic collapse largely thanks to China, the main buyer of its oil and one of the few nations still trading with Tehran despite sanctions.

Oil exports slumped after Trump ditched the nuclear deal but have recovered in the past few years, bringing in more than $50 billion in revenue in both 2022 and 2023 as Iran found ways to skirt sanctions, according to US Energy Information Administration estimates.

Yet uncertainty looms over the sustainability of the exports as Trump's maximum pressure policy aims to throttle Iran's crude sales with multiple rounds of sanctions on tankers and entities involved in the trade.

PUBLIC ANGER SIMMERS

Iran's rulers are also facing a string of other crises - energy and water shortages, a collapsing currency, military setbacks among regional allies and growing fears of an Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities - all intensified by Trump's tough stance.

The energy and water sectors are suffering from a lack of investment in infrastructure, overconsumption driven by subsidies, declining natural gas production and inefficient irrigation, all leading to power blackouts and water shortages.

The Iranian rial has shed more than 90% of its value against the dollar since the sanctions were reimposed in 2018, according to foreign exchange websites, officials and lawmakers.

Amid concerns about Trump's tough approach, Iranians seeking safe havens for their savings have been buying dollars, other hard currencies, gold or cryptocurrencies, suggesting further weakness for the rial, according to state media reports.

The price of rice has soared 200% since last year, state media has reported. Housing and utility costs have spiked sharply, climbing roughly 60% in some Tehran districts and other major cities in recent months, driven by the rial's steep fall and soaring raw material costs, according to media reports.

Official inflation hovers around 40%, though some Iranian experts say it is running at over 50%. The Statistical Center of Iran reported a significant rise in food prices, with over a third of essential commodities increasing by 40% in January to leave them more than double the same month the previous year.

In January, the Tasnim news agency quoted the head of Iran's Institute of Labor and Social Welfare, Ebrahim Sadeghifar, as saying 22% to 27% of Iranians were now below the poverty line.

Iran's Jomhuri-ye Eslami newspaper, meanwhile, said last week that poverty rates stood at around 50%.

"I can barely cover the rent for my carpet shop or pay my workers' salaries. No one has the money to buy carpets. If this continues, I will have to lay off my staff," Morteza, 39, said by phone from Tehran's Grand Bazaar, giving only his first name.

"How do they expect to solve the economic crisis if they refuse to talk to Trump? Just talk to him and reach a deal. You cannot afford pride on an empty stomach."

NUCLEAR RED LINE

Based on Iranian state media reports, there were at least 216 demonstrations across Iran in February, involving retirees, workers, healthcare professionals, students and merchants. The protests largely focused on economic hardships, including low wages and months of unpaid salaries, according to the reports.

While the protests were mostly small-scale, officials fear a deterioration in living standards could be explosive.

"The country is like a powder keg, and further economic strain could be the spark that sets it off," said one of the four officials, who is close to the government.

Iran's ruling elite is acutely aware of the risk of a resurgence of the unrest similar to the 2022-2023 protests over Mahsa Amini's death in custody, or the nationwide protests in 2019 over fuel price rises, the officials said.

The senior Iranian official said there had been several high-level meetings to discuss the possibility of new mass protests - and potential measures to head them off.

Nevertheless, despite the worries about potential unrest, Iranian officials said Tehran was only prepared to go so far in any talks with Trump, stressing that "excessive demands", such as dismantling Iran's peaceful nuclear program or its conventional missile capabilities, were off the table.

"Yes, there are concerns about more economic pressure, there are concerns about the nation's growing anger, but we cannot sacrifice our right to produce nuclear energy because Trump wants it," the senior official said.

Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, said Iran's rulers believed that negotiating with Trump under coercion would signal weakness, ultimately attracting more pressure than reducing it.

"That is why Khamenei seems to believe that the only thing that is more dangerous than suffering from sanctions is surrendering to them," he said.