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Baghdad Fears Iranian Retaliation, Cites Iraq as Key Missile Route

Image of a drone launch from a video posted by the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” on Telegram
Image of a drone launch from a video posted by the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” on Telegram
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Baghdad Fears Iranian Retaliation, Cites Iraq as Key Missile Route

Image of a drone launch from a video posted by the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” on Telegram
Image of a drone launch from a video posted by the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” on Telegram

Politicians and analysts believe Iraq is particularly worried about a potential conflict between Iran and Israel. This is because Iraqi airspace and territory might be the main route for Iranian missiles.
While many Iraqis seem indifferent to the possibility of a war, there is a heated debate online. Some critics of Iran are dismissive of the threat, while its supporters expect a strong retaliation.
A political source close to the Coordination Framework warns that Iraq, given its location near both Iran and Israel, could be heavily affected by a conflict between Tehran and Tel Aviv.
The source, speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat under conditions of anonymity, noted that Iraq’s ability to prevent or handle the fallout from such a conflict is nearly nonexistent.
If a war breaks out, Iraqi territory will be exposed, similar to the situation in April when Iranian missiles flew over Iraq to strike Israel.
The source explained that Iranian attacks could happen in two ways: through missiles crossing Iraqi airspace or via missiles launched by Iranian-aligned factions inside Iraq.
In both cases, it would be very difficult for the Iraqi government to respond, given its lack of control over these groups.
There are also concerns that these factions might launch broader attacks on their own, even without direct orders.
Additionally, if the conflict escalates uncontrollably, Israel might target important infrastructure in Iraq directly. This includes possible threats to Basra’s ports, similar to past Israeli actions in Yemen, if Iraqi factions join the conflict on Iran's side.
Former diplomat Ghazi Faisal agrees that the Iraqi government has limited ability to avoid the fallout from a potential conflict between Iran and Israel.
Faisal told Asharq Al-Awsat that Baghdad is trying to stay neutral amid the regional tensions and conflicts, including those involving Iran.
Despite efforts to address factions responsible for past attacks, Faisal said the Iraqi government cannot control or deter armed groups linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
While the Iraqi government aims to avoid war and supports Palestinian rights, Faisal warned that Iraq’s stance could become divided if a conflict breaks out, due to the complex ties between local factions and Tehran.

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Aoun Leading Efforts to Avert Shiite Boycott of New Lebanese Govt

A handout photo made available by the Lebanese Presidency Press Office shows Lebanese President Joseph Aoun (C) attending a meeting with Lebanese parliament Speaker Nabih Berri (L) and Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam at the Presidential Palace in Baabda, Lebanon, 14 January 2025. (Lebanese Presidency Press Office)
A handout photo made available by the Lebanese Presidency Press Office shows Lebanese President Joseph Aoun (C) attending a meeting with Lebanese parliament Speaker Nabih Berri (L) and Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam at the Presidential Palace in Baabda, Lebanon, 14 January 2025. (Lebanese Presidency Press Office)
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Aoun Leading Efforts to Avert Shiite Boycott of New Lebanese Govt

A handout photo made available by the Lebanese Presidency Press Office shows Lebanese President Joseph Aoun (C) attending a meeting with Lebanese parliament Speaker Nabih Berri (L) and Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam at the Presidential Palace in Baabda, Lebanon, 14 January 2025. (Lebanese Presidency Press Office)
A handout photo made available by the Lebanese Presidency Press Office shows Lebanese President Joseph Aoun (C) attending a meeting with Lebanese parliament Speaker Nabih Berri (L) and Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam at the Presidential Palace in Baabda, Lebanon, 14 January 2025. (Lebanese Presidency Press Office)

Lebanon’s Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam arrived in Beirut on Tuesday to kick off parliamentary consultations to form a new government.

He assured that it will “not exclude anyone”, but seek “unity and partnership.”

Asharq Al-Awsat learned that President Joseph Aoun is leading efforts to avert a Shiite boycott of the new government after the “Shiite duo” of the Hezbollah and Amal movement, which is led by parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, refrained from naming Salam for the position of PM during Monday’s consultations.

Their abstention has raised fears that the new government will not be constitutional without the representation of the largest Shiite parties in the country.

Reports have said that the duo may boycott the parliamentary consultations to form a government that Salam will hold on Wednesday.

Sources said the duo may skip the first day of talks, which will conclude on Thursday, to demonstrate its “annoyance” with the developments.

Berri, however, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the “situation is not that negative”. He did not elaborate on the duo’s next steps.

Moreover, Asharq Al-Awsat learned that French President Macron had even intervened to avoid a dispute over the government, holding telephone talks with Aoun and Berri.

Salam’s appointment as prime minister came as a major shock given the large number of votes he won from the parliamentary blocs, compared to his predecessor Najib Mikati and against the will of the Shiite duo. In past years, Hezbollah has repeatedly blocked Salam from becoming prime minister.

Aoun stressed the need to “avoid placing obstacles in the government formation process.”

Aoun held a meeting with Salam at the presidential palace on Tuesday before later being joined by Berri, who left the palace without making a statement.

After the talks, Salam spoke before reporters to express his gratitude to parliament and the people for entrusting him with the “difficult task of serving Lebanon” and “achieving the people’s dreams.”

“It is time to open a new chapter that is rooted in justice, security, progress and opportunity, so that Lebanon can be a nation of free people who are equal under their rights,” he added.

On the possible boycott of the Shiite duo, he said he was against exclusion and on the contrary supported unity. “This is my sincere call, and my hands are extended to everyone,” he added.

The formation of a government in Lebanon often takes months due to political wrangling.

Aoun said on Tuesday that Lebanon has a “very major opportunity that we should all seize.”

He received a delegation from the Supreme Islamic Shiite Council.

“Obstacles must not be placed in the formation process,” he urged. “We must send positive signals to the international community that Lebanon can govern itself, carry out reconstruction transparently and build the state that we are all calling for.”

“If one segment of Lebanon is broken, then the whole country will break,” he stressed, saying Monday’s consultations to appoint Salam were a democratic process and that the public interest remains the top priority.

Aoun, who was elected last week, added that he has declined visits from well-wishers over his election “out of respect for the martyrs” who were killed during Israel’s war on Lebanon, which ended with a ceasefire in November.