The dollar softened and stocks fell on Monday as investors treaded carefully hours before the US presidential election, with a US Federal Reserve interest-rate cut also expected later in the week.
In the US presidential race, Democratic Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump remain virtually tied in opinion polls ahead of Tuesday's vote. It might not be clear who won for days after voting ends.
“Tuesday will shape the direction of the world economy and geopolitics for the next four years,” Deutsche Bank analysts wrote.
They cautioned that “there remains a large degree of uncertainty around both the result, including the very tight House (of Representatives) race, and when we will know it.”
Trump's policies on immigration, tax cuts and tariffs may put upward pressure on inflation, bond yields and the dollar, analysts say, while Harris is seen as the continuity candidate.
Uncertainty over the outcome is one reason markets assume the Federal Reserve will choose to cut rates by a standard 25 basis points on Thursday, rather than repeat its outsized half-point easing.
The Bank of England also meets Thursday and is expected to cut by 25 basis points, while the Riksbank is seen easing by 50 basis points and the Norges Bank is expected to stay on hold.
The Reserve Bank of Australia holds its meeting on Tuesday and again is expected to hold rates steady.
“Based on current data, we see no reason for (the Federal Open Market Committee) to rush through rate cuts,” said analysts at ANZ. “The election and uncertainty over the future fiscal path also support arguments for caution in recalibrating monetary policy.”
The euro extended an early climb to be up 0.5% at $1.0891 and looked set to test resistance around $1.0905. The dollar fell 0.6% on the yen to 152.60. The dollar index eased 0.1% to 103.80.
Dealers said the dip in the dollar might be linked to a poll that showed Harris taking a surprise 3-point lead in Iowa, thanks largely to her popularity with female voters.
“Markets are seemingly scaling back some Trump trades, and we suspect the next two days can see some abnormal swings in USD crosses due to tighter volatility conditions ahead of a closely contested and highly binary US election,” ING FX strategist Francesco Pesole said.
European stocks were flat, while oil prices climbed nearly 3% on Monday on OPEC+'s decision for a month's delay in plans to increase output, while investors also focused on the US presidential election.
British stocks outperformed continental indexes to add 0.5%, helped by the energy sector.
Earlier, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.7%, recovering from its fall to a five-week low on Friday.
Chinese blue-chip stocks gained 1.4%, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.2%.
Wall Street also notched slim gains ahead of Tuesday's US election. Futures had the S&P 500 up 0.2% ahead of Monday’s opening bell, while the Nasdaq and Dow Jones were seen 0.1% higher respectively.
Bonds have rallied on Monday as a result of the latest swing in the polls, with yields on 10-year US treasuries down 10 basis points at 4.28%.
