French President Emmanuel Macron painted a veneer of European unity by inviting a small number of handpicked European leaders to the Élysée Palace, while the Trump administration sidelined the continent by moving ahead with direct negotiations on Tuesday with Russia on the war in Ukraine. But beneath the diplomatic pageantry, cracks in European consensus were hard to ignore.
One question loomed: Could Europe take charge of its own security, or would it remain reactive to US and Russian decisions?
From Macron’s push for European-led defense to Keir Starmer’s “third way” diplomacy, Giorgia Meloni’s balancing act between Brussels and Washington, and Olaf Scholz’s resistance to breaking with NATO, Europe remains divided on its next move.
France – Macron seeks to take the lead
By hosting the Monday summit in his Parisian palace, Macron reinforced his image of the imperial French “Sun King” and his bid to become the dominant voice on Ukraine and European security. With Germany’s Scholz politically weakened, the UK outside the EU, and Italy leaning toward Trump, Macron has emerged as the bloc’s most vocal advocate for strategic autonomy.
With a presidential mandate until 2027 and France’s nuclear arsenal making it Europe’s only atomic power, Macron has positioned himself as the only leader with both the ambition and authority to act. His proposal for a European-led security force in Ukraine, even in a limited training and logistics role, fits into his broader push for a continent less dependent on Washington.
But forging consensus is proving difficult: Germany is resisting, key frontline EU nations were left out of the summit, and Trump’s unpredictability clouds Europe’s security outlook.
“Since his first term, Macron has sought to impose himself as Europe’s strongman,” said French political analyst Jean-Yves Camus. “He has always presented himself as the natural leader of liberals against nationalist populists. One cannot say that this has worked well.”
While Macron is setting the stage, the question remains: Is Europe ready to follow?
United Kingdom – Starmer’s ‘third way’ strategy
Keir Starmer is charting a different course, positioning himself as Europe’s key link to Washington — while maintaining a firm pro-Ukraine stance.
Having met Trump before the election —“I like him a lot,” the US president said — the British prime minister is set to travel to Washington next week in what some see as an effort to bridge the US-Europe divide, and a hallmark of the “special relationship.”
While Trump moves toward de-escalation in Ukraine, Starmer is doubling down on support for Kyiv, stating the UK is “ready and willing” to send British troops if necessary. This stance stands in contrast to Macron and Scholz’s more cautious approach.
Starmer’s surprising decision not to sign a key international declaration on the future of AI last week — aligning with the US rather than the EU — has raised questions about whether Britain is shifting closer to Washington on broader geopolitical issues.
“The UK is unique in that it’s practically the only major ally that Trump hasn’t purposefully antagonized since his inauguration,” said Anand Sundar, a special advisor at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “The Starmer government is doing everything it can to not put a target on its back.”
Some analysts suggest Starmer is positioning himself as Trump’s European “whisperer,” able to influence the White House while staying in step with Europe.
Italy – Meloni’s balancing act
Giorgia Meloni, the only leader of a major European economy to attend Trump’s inauguration in January, arrived late to the Paris summit and left without making a public statement - moves observers saw as signs of skepticism toward the meeting.
According to Italian news agency ANSA, Meloni questioned why the summit was held in Paris rather than Brussels, the EU’s natural decision-making hub, and criticized the exclusion of frontline states such as the Baltic nations, Sweden, and Finland.
At the summit, she pushed back against deploying European troops to Ukraine, calling it “the most complex and least effective option” - especially without firm security guarantees for Kyiv.
Observers noted that Meloni echoed some of US Vice President JD Vance’s criticism of Europe’s reliance on US protection. “We shouldn’t be asking what the Americans can do for us, but what we must do for ourselves,” she said, according to ANSA.
Despite her skepticism, Meloni still engaged in the talks, bringing Italy’s concerns over long-term European military commitments to the table.
Hungary – Orban’s absence
Notably absent from the Paris talks was Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a close Trump ally and frequent critic of EU policies.
While no official reason was given for his exclusion, some observers saw it as a pointed message from Paris and its European allies about the limits of engagement with leaders seen as too closely aligned with Trump’s worldview.
Germany – Scholz’s irritation
If Macron is stepping forward, Scholz is pushing back.
At the summit, the German Chancellor rejected Macron’s proposal for a European-led security force in Ukraine, calling it “completely premature” and “highly inappropriate” given the ongoing war.
Scholz didn’t hide his frustration, saying he was “a little irritated” that peacekeeping forces were even being discussed “at the wrong time.” He insisted NATO—not an independent European force—must remain the foundation of security.
Due to its historical legacy from the world wars, some argue that Germany has always been willing to cede European security leadership to France, a role the French have pursued since President Charle de Gaulle.
At the same time, the debate over military spending is intensifying, as NATO officials stress the alliance’s 2% GDP target is now a baseline rather than a cap.
