Israel Wary of Egypt's 'Military Infrastructure' in Sinai: Peace Treaty at Risk?

Egyptian army chief Ahmed Khalifa inspects troops near Israel's border late last year. (Military spokesman)
Egyptian army chief Ahmed Khalifa inspects troops near Israel's border late last year. (Military spokesman)
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Israel Wary of Egypt's 'Military Infrastructure' in Sinai: Peace Treaty at Risk?

Egyptian army chief Ahmed Khalifa inspects troops near Israel's border late last year. (Military spokesman)
Egyptian army chief Ahmed Khalifa inspects troops near Israel's border late last year. (Military spokesman)

Israel has voiced growing concerns over Egypt’s military presence in the Sinai Peninsula, fearing a potential escalation between the two sides amid the ongoing Gaza war.

Israeli media reports said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has asked both Washington and Cairo to dismantle what it describes as a “military infrastructure” established by the Egyptian army in Sinai.

However, an informed Egyptian source and experts cited by Asharq Al-Awsat insisted that Egypt has not violated its peace treaty with Israel. They argued that Cairo’s military movements are a response to Israeli breaches of the agreement.

Israel’s Israel Hayom newspaper, citing a senior Israeli security official, reported that Egypt’s military buildup in Sinai constitutes a “major violation” of the security annex of the peace treaty.

The official said the issue is a top priority for Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, stressing that Israel “will not accept this situation” amid what it views as Egypt’s growing military footprint in the peninsula.

The official added that the issue goes beyond the deployment of Egyptian forces in Sinai exceeding the quotas set under the military annex of the Camp David Accords.

The real concern, he said, lies in Egypt’s continued military buildup in the peninsula, which Israel views as an irreversible step.

Moreover, he stressed that while Israel is not seeking to amend its peace treaty with Egypt or redeploy troops along the border, it believes the current situation requires urgent action to prevent a potential escalation.

Egypt-Israel relations have not seen such tensions since the outbreak of the Gaza war, particularly after Israel violated a ceasefire agreement with Hamas brokered primarily by Egypt. Israeli forces resumed airstrikes on Gaza last month and failed to fulfill their commitments to withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor and Palestinian border crossings.

A senior Egyptian source dismissed Israel’s accusations, telling Asharq Al-Awsat that “these repeated Israeli pretexts ignore the fact that Israeli forces have violated the peace treaty, seizing control of areas where Egypt objects to their presence without the necessary coordination with Cairo.”

Egypt has the right to take all necessary measures to safeguard its national security against any threats, emphasized the source.

“Nevertheless, Cairo remains fully committed to the peace treaty and has no intention of aggression against any party,” it added.

Israeli forces seized control of the Gaza-Egypt border, including the Philadelphi Corridor and the Rafah crossing, in May 2024. Israel has accused Egypt of not doing enough to stop weapons smuggling into Gaza through border tunnels—an allegation Cairo has denied.

Under the terms of the ceasefire agreement with Hamas, which Israel later broke, Israeli forces were supposed to begin withdrawing from the Philadelphi Corridor on March 1, completing the pullout within eight days. However, Israel failed to do so and instead resumed airstrikes on Gaza.

Israel also announced the creation of an administration aimed at facilitating the “voluntary departure” of Gaza residents, a move Cairo strongly rejected and formally condemned.

Egypt has insisted that Palestinians must remain in their homeland and has put forward a reconstruction plan for Gaza and called for the implementation of the two-state solution. The plan was endorsed at an emergency Arab summit three weeks ago.

Media reports have indicated that Egypt responded to Israel’s control of the Gaza border by increasing its military presence near the frontier—an act that some Israeli officials claim violates the peace treaty and threatens Israel’s security.

Former Egyptian intelligence official Gen. Mohammed Rashad told Asharq Al-Awsat that Israel itself violated the peace treaty by seizing the Philadelphi Corridor, controlling border crossings, and blocking aid to Gaza while seeking to forcibly displace Palestinians into Egypt.

“Every Israeli action along Gaza’s border with Egypt constitutes hostile behavior against Egypt’s national security,” said Rashad, who previously headed the Israeli military affairs division in Egypt’s intelligence service.

“Egypt cannot sit idly by in the face of such threats and must prepare for all possible scenarios.”

The Philadelphi Corridor is a strategically sensitive buffer zone, serving as a narrow 14-kilometer passage between Egypt, Israel, and Gaza, stretching from the Mediterranean Sea in the north to the Kerem Shalom crossing in the south.

Military expert General Samir Farag insisted that Egypt has not violated the peace treaty or its security annex in over 40 years, arguing that Israel has repeatedly breached the agreement and is attempting to shift blame onto Cairo.

“Israel is doing this to distract from its internal problems, including public discontent over its ballooning defense budget,” Farag told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“It also wants to deflect attention from Egypt’s reconstruction plan for Gaza and leverage its claims to pressure the United States for more military aid by portraying Egypt as a threat.”

Farag emphasized that Egypt’s actions are solely aimed at protecting its national security, adding: “There is no clause in the peace treaty that prevents a country from defending itself.”

“The so-called ‘military infrastructure’ Israel refers to consists of roads and development projects in Sinai.”

“The US has satellite surveillance over the region—if Egypt had violated the treaty, Washington would have flagged it. Moreover, security coordination between Egypt and Israel continues daily,” he explained.

Egypt and Israel signed their landmark peace treaty on March 25, 1979, committing to resolving disputes peacefully and prohibiting the use or threat of force. The agreement also established military deployment guidelines and a joint security coordination committee.

Meanwhile, US Republican Party member Tom Harb told Asharq Al-Awsat that Washington has received intelligence from multiple sources indicating that Egypt has amassed a significant military force in Sinai.

Israel considers this a breach of the peace treaty, which designates Sinai as a demilitarized zone to prevent surprises like the 1973 war, Harb said.

While the US fully supports Israel’s concerns, it also wants to prevent further escalation, as that would destabilize the region, he added.

Ultimately, Egypt must clarify whether its troop movements are aimed at threatening Israel or preventing Palestinians from crossing into Egyptian territory, he stated.



A Son of Iran’s Late Supreme Leader Is a Possible Candidate to Replace His Father as War Rages

Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, center, attends the annual Quds, or Jerusalem Day rally in Tehran, Iran, on May 31, 2019. (AP)
Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, center, attends the annual Quds, or Jerusalem Day rally in Tehran, Iran, on May 31, 2019. (AP)
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A Son of Iran’s Late Supreme Leader Is a Possible Candidate to Replace His Father as War Rages

Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, center, attends the annual Quds, or Jerusalem Day rally in Tehran, Iran, on May 31, 2019. (AP)
Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, center, attends the annual Quds, or Jerusalem Day rally in Tehran, Iran, on May 31, 2019. (AP)

Mojtaba Khamenei, a son of Iran's late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has long been considered a contender to the post of the country's next paramount ruler — even before an Israeli strike killed his father at the start of the war last week and despite the fact he's has never been elected or appointed to a government position.

A secretive figure within the Islamic Republic, Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen publicly since Saturday, when the Israeli airstrike targeting the supreme leader's offices killed his 86-year-old father. Also killed were the younger Khamenei's wife, Zahra Haddad Adel, who came from a family long associated with the country's theocracy.

Khamenei is believed to still be alive and has likely has gone into hiding as American and Israeli airstrikes continue to pound Iran, though state-run Iranian media have not reported on his whereabouts.

Profile of Khamenei's son rises after airstrike

Mojtaba Khamenei's name continues to circulate as a possible candidate to replace his father, something that had been criticized in the past as potentially creating a theocratic version of Iran's former hereditary monarchy.

But now with his father and wife considered by hard-liners as martyrs in the war against America and Israel, Khamenei's stock likely has risen with the aging clerics of the 88-seat Assembly of Experts who will select the country's next supreme leader.

Whoever becomes the leader will gain control of an Iranian military now at war and a stockpile of highly enriched uranium that could be used to build a nuclear weapon — should he choose to decree it.

Khamenei had occupied a similar role to that of Ahmad Khomeini, a son of Iran's first Supreme Leader Khomeini — "a combination of aide-de-camp, confidant, gatekeeper and power broker,” according to United Against Nuclear Iran, a US-based pressure group.

Born into dissent

Born in 1969 in the city of Mashhad, some 10 years before the 1979 revolution that would sweep Iran, Khamenei grew up as his father agitated against Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi of Iran.

An official biography on Ali Khamenei's life recounts one moment when the shah's secret police, the SAVAK, broke into their home and beat the cleric. Woken up after, Mojtaba and the rest of Khamenei's children were told their father was going on vacation.

“But I told them, ‘There is no need to lie.’ I told them the truth,” the elder Khamenei was quoted as saying.

After the fall of the shah, Khamenei's family moved to Tehran, Iran's capital. Khamenei would go on to fight in the Iran-Iraq war with the Habib ibn Mazahir Battalion, a division of Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard that would see several of its members ascend to powerful intelligence positions within the force, likely with the backing of the Khamenei family.

His father became supreme leader in 1989 and soon Mojtaba Khamenei and his family had access to the billions of dollars and business assets spread across Iran's many bonyads, or foundations funded from state industries and other wealth once held by the shah.

Power rises with his father's

His own power rose alongside his father's, working within his offices in downtown Tehran. US diplomatic cables published by WikiLeaks in the late 2000s began referring to the younger Khamenei as “the power behind the robes.” One recounted an allegation that Khamenei actually tapped his own father's phone, served as his “principal gatekeeper” and had been forming his own power base within the country.

Khamenei “is widely viewed within the regime as a capable and forceful leader and manager who may someday succeed to at least a share of national leadership; his father may also see him in that light,” a 2008 cable read, also noting his lack of theological qualifications and age.

“Mojtaba is, however, due to his skills, wealth, and unmatched alliances, reportedly seen by a number of regime insiders as a plausible candidate for shared leadership of Iran upon his father’s demise, whether that demise is soon or years in the future,” it said.

Khamenei has worked closely with Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, both with commanders of its expeditionary Quds Force and its all-volunteer Basij that violently suppressed nationwide protests in January, the US Treasury has said.

The United States sanctioned him in 2019 during the first term of USPresident Donald Trump over working to “advance his father’s destabilizing regional ambitions and oppressive domestic objectives.”

That includes allegations that Khamenei from behind the scenes supported the election of hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2005 and his disputed re-election in 2009 that sparked the Green Movement protests.

Mahdi Karroubi, who was a presidential candidate in 2005 and 2009, denounced Khamenei as “a master's son” and alleged he interfered in both votes. His father reportedly at the time said Khamenei was “a master himself, not a master’s son."

Powers of supreme leader at stake

There has been only one other transfer of power in the office of supreme leader of Iran, the paramount decision-maker since the country’s 1979 revolution. Khomeini died at age 86 after being the figurehead of the revolution and leading Iran through its eight-year war with Iraq.

Now the new leader will come on board after the 12-day war with Israel and as a US-Israeli war with Iran is seeking to eliminate Iran's nuclear threat and military power, hoping also the Iranian people will rise up against the Iranian theocracy.

The supreme leader is at the heart of Iran’s complex power-sharing theocracy and has final say over all matters of state. He also serves as the commander-in-chief of the country’s military and the Guard, a paramilitary force that the United States designated a terrorist organization in 2019, and which his father empowered during his rule.

The Guard, which has led the self-described “Axis of Resistance,” a series of militant groups and allies across the Middle East meant to counter the US and Israel, also has extensive wealth and holdings in Iran. It also controls the country's ballistic missile arsenal.


Iran's 'Axis of Resistance' under Threat after US-Israeli War

Members of Iraq's pro-Iran paramilitary group Kataib Hezbollah march with the group's banners in a funeral for slain fighters killed in a US-Israeli airstrike on their headquarters in al-Qaim near the border with Syria, during a ceremony in Baghdad on March 2, 2026. (AFP)
Members of Iraq's pro-Iran paramilitary group Kataib Hezbollah march with the group's banners in a funeral for slain fighters killed in a US-Israeli airstrike on their headquarters in al-Qaim near the border with Syria, during a ceremony in Baghdad on March 2, 2026. (AFP)
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Iran's 'Axis of Resistance' under Threat after US-Israeli War

Members of Iraq's pro-Iran paramilitary group Kataib Hezbollah march with the group's banners in a funeral for slain fighters killed in a US-Israeli airstrike on their headquarters in al-Qaim near the border with Syria, during a ceremony in Baghdad on March 2, 2026. (AFP)
Members of Iraq's pro-Iran paramilitary group Kataib Hezbollah march with the group's banners in a funeral for slain fighters killed in a US-Israeli airstrike on their headquarters in al-Qaim near the border with Syria, during a ceremony in Baghdad on March 2, 2026. (AFP)

Iran once boasted that it controlled four Arab capitals: Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut and Sanaa in an alliance dubbed the "Axis of Resistance".

But the network -- long used as a regional force against Israel -- has been weakened since the Gaza war and now risks collapse, upending the regional balance, analysts said.

"The axis of resistance is over," said Atlantic Council researcher Nicholas Blanford.

Two days after Hamas launched its October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country's response would "change the Middle East".

Backed by Israel's powerful ally, the United States, the Israeli leader did not just intend to defeat the Iran-backed Palestinian group, but the entire axis.

The weakening of Lebanon's Hezbollah after its 2024 war with Israel and the fall of Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad paved the way for Israel to aim directly at Iran.

Since Saturday, the country has been the target of a major US-Israeli offensive, which even killed Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei.

Most of the axis's members like Hezbollah, Yemen's Houthis or Iraqi Shiite groups are "trying to understand how to survive", Renad Mansour, senior research fellow at the Chatham House international affairs think-tank, told AFP.

- 'Defensive approach' -

Since deciding to enter the war by launching rockets at Israel on Monday, Hezbollah brought a major Israeli retaliation, which saw bombings across Lebanon and an Israeli ground incursion to create a buffer zone.

"Naim Qassem doesn't want to get involved in this fight," Blanford, who wrote a book on Hezbollah, said, referring to the group's chief.

However, the analyst said Tehran may have forced Qassem to intervene.

Iraq, a longtime battlefield between Washington and Tehran, saw Iran-backed groups claim dozens of drone attacks on US bases, though many were downed.

To Mansour, these groups lack "the necessary military capabilities to inflict significant damage" while the most prominent ones are now "intertwined in the Iraqi state".

The Houthis in Yemen have so far stayed away from the conflict.

"The Houthis are in a calculated holding pattern, or perhaps a defensive approach," said Ahmed Nagi, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group.

However, Nagi believes that while the axis "is facing an existential threat, that does not necessarily mean it will disintegrate".

"The network operates on more than a military level; its political, social and religious ties remain deeply rooted among its groups and are unlikely to unravel because of battlefield setbacks alone."

The regional upheavals will depend on the outcome of this war, particularly the collapse or survival of the Iranian regime.


Netanyahu’s Political Future at Stake with Iran War, Say Experts

03 March 2020, Israel, Tel Aviv: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivers an address. (dpa)
03 March 2020, Israel, Tel Aviv: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivers an address. (dpa)
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Netanyahu’s Political Future at Stake with Iran War, Say Experts

03 March 2020, Israel, Tel Aviv: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivers an address. (dpa)
03 March 2020, Israel, Tel Aviv: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivers an address. (dpa)

With elections approaching in Israel, the war with Iran has handed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu an opportunity to restore an image deeply scarred by Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack, experts say.

But any political dividend would depend on how the conflict unfolds and how long it lasts, they said according to AFP.

A day after Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a wave of US-Israeli strikes, Netanyahu said that his close ties with Washington had enabled Israel to "do what I have long aspired to do for 40 years: to strike the terrorist regime decisively".

The Gaza war, sparked by Hamas's unprecedented attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, eroded Netanyahu's popularity.

Critics have accused him of seeking to evade responsibility for the authorities' failure to prevent the deadliest day in Israel's history.

At 76, the leader of the right-wing Likud party is Israel's longest-serving prime minister, with more than 18 cumulative years in office across multiple stints.

Known for his political resilience, Netanyahu has been without a parliamentary majority since the summer, amid a crisis with his ultra-Orthodox religious allies.

He is also standing trial in a long-running corruption case and has sought a presidential pardon, with US President Donald Trump repeatedly pressuring President Isaac Herzog to grant one.

- 'Total victory' -

Elections must be held by October 27 at the latest.

Netanyahu will call early elections, says Emmanuel Navon, a political analyst at Tel Aviv University.

"It's obvious. He won't wait until October given the commemoration of the October 7 anniversary," Navon said.

"If Netanyahu was at rock bottom after the Hamas attack, he has since gradually turned the tide," he added, citing heavy blows dealt by the Israeli military to Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran since the start of the Gaza war.

A Likud party led by Netanyahu would emerge ahead in elections held today, opinion polls suggest.

That would likely see him tasked with forming the next government, though he would still lack a majority with his current allies.

A victory over Iran could change that calculus, experts say.

"This offensive undeniably reinforces the image Netanyahu seeks to cultivate, the one associated with his 'total victory' slogan," independent geopolitical analyst Michael Horowitz told AFP.

"Netanyahu wants to show that this is not a campaign slogan but a reality. It is his national agenda and his electoral strategy," he added.

- 'Iran remains Iran' -

Raviv Druker, a prominent journalist on Channel 13 television, argued that Netanyahu "will try to convince people that the victory is total even if that is an illusion," noting that "Hamas still runs Gaza, and Iran remains Iran even after Saturday's strike".

On the popular news website Walla, journalist Ouriel Deskal went further, suggesting Netanyahu may have chosen the timing of the hostilities to automatically delay -- under a state of emergency -- the March 30 deadline for passing a budget for which he has struggled to secure a majority.

Without a budget, the government would fall on April 1 and elections would be called.

In that scenario, Netanyahu would enter the campaign from a position of weakness.

By contrast "if this war against Iran is a success for Israel, it will be a political victory for Netanyahu," Navon said.

But should the war drag on, the picture could shift dramatically, Horowitz warned.

"Public tolerance for a long war with heavy casualties, combined with a high cost of living, remains extremely low," he said.

During the war last June, Iranian missiles killed 30 people in Israel. Since Saturday, 10 people have been killed in Iran's retaliatory strikes.

"Israel's victories are primarily attributed to the army and to civilian resilience, which enabled the country to wage the longest war in its history," Horowitz noted.

"The army's popularity is rising, not necessarily Netanyahu's."