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Oil Slips from Recent Highs as Market Assesses Middle East Tension

A pump jack operates near a gas turbine power plant in the Permian Basin oil field outside of Odessa, Texas, US February 18, 2025. REUTERS/Eli Hartman/File Photo
A pump jack operates near a gas turbine power plant in the Permian Basin oil field outside of Odessa, Texas, US February 18, 2025. REUTERS/Eli Hartman/File Photo
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Oil Slips from Recent Highs as Market Assesses Middle East Tension

A pump jack operates near a gas turbine power plant in the Permian Basin oil field outside of Odessa, Texas, US February 18, 2025. REUTERS/Eli Hartman/File Photo
A pump jack operates near a gas turbine power plant in the Permian Basin oil field outside of Odessa, Texas, US February 18, 2025. REUTERS/Eli Hartman/File Photo

Oil prices fell on Thursday after sharp gains in the previous session as market participants assessed a US decision to move personnel from the Middle East ahead of talks with Iran over the latter's nuclear-related activity.

Brent crude futures were down $1.31, or 1.9%, at $68.46 a barrel at 1202 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was $1.32, or 2%, lower at $66.83 a barrel, Reuters reported.

A day earlier both Brent and WTI surged more than 4% to their highest since early April.

US President Donald Trump said the US was moving personnel because the Middle East "could be a dangerous place". He also said the US would not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon. Iran has said its nuclear activity is peaceful.

Increased tension with Iran has raised the prospect of disruption to oil supplies. The sides are set to meet on Sunday.

"Geopolitical risk premia tend to fade if there are no supply disruptions. We are still higher than two days ago as some short investors prefer to stay on the sidelines amid the uncertainty," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

On Wednesday Britain's maritime agency warned that increased tensions in the Middle East may lead to an escalation in military activity that could impact shipping in critical waterways.

It advised vessels to use caution while travelling through the Gulf, the Gulf of Oman and the Straits of Hormuz, which all border Iran.

"For the oil market, the absolute nightmare is a closure of the Strait of Hormuz," Global Risk Management analyst Arne Rasmussen said in a LinkedIn post.

"If Iran blocks this narrow chokepoint, it could affect up to 20% of global oil flows," he added.

JPMorgan said oil prices could surge to $120-$130 a barrel if the strait were to be shut, a scenario the bank considered to be severe but low-risk.

The US meanwhile is preparing a partial evacuation of its Iraqi embassy and will allow military dependents to leave locations in the Middle East due to heightened security risk in the region, Reuters reported on Wednesday citing US and Iraqi sources.

Iraq is the second-biggest crude producer after Saudi Arabia in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. A senior Iraqi oil official told Reuters foreign energy firms continue operating normally in the country.

Trump has repeatedly said the US would bomb Iran if the two countries cannot reach a deal regarding Iran's nuclear-related activity including uranium enrichment.

Iran's Minister of Defense Aziz Nasirzadeh on Wednesday said Iran will strike US bases in the region if talks fail and if the US initiates conflict.

US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff plans to meet Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Oman on Sunday to discuss Iran's response to a US proposal for a deal.

The UN nuclear watchdog's 35-nation Board of Governors declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations on Thursday for the first time in almost 20 years, raising the prospect of reporting it to the UN Security Council.

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Business

China Rides AI Wave as Exports Surge Past Forecast

Containers and ships are seen at the port in Nanjing, in China's eastern Jingsu province early on June 9, 2026. (AFP)
Containers and ships are seen at the port in Nanjing, in China's eastern Jingsu province early on June 9, 2026. (AFP)
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China Rides AI Wave as Exports Surge Past Forecast

Containers and ships are seen at the port in Nanjing, in China's eastern Jingsu province early on June 9, 2026. (AFP)
Containers and ships are seen at the port in Nanjing, in China's eastern Jingsu province early on June 9, 2026. (AFP)

China's export growth accelerated in May, buoyed by robust demand for chips, autos and other high-tech goods fueling the global AI boom, providing policymakers some relief as energy price shocks from the Iran conflict weigh on broader demand.

A surge in global AI investment has helped the world's top manufacturer offset the export hit many had expected from the Middle East turmoil. But signs are emerging that stockpiling linked to higher energy costs is fading, with prices rising and overseas buyers starting to run down inventories as they hold out for a ceasefire.

Exports expanded 19.4% from a year earlier in US dollar value terms, customs data showed on Tuesday, outpacing the 14.1% gain in April and a 15% rise tipped by economists.

Imports notched another strong month, climbing 27.4% versus a rise of 25.3% a month prior. Economists had forecast growth of 25%.

"Chip price increases continue to support exports, with memory prices rising 20% month-on-month, pushing integrated circuit export growth to ‌111% for the month," ‌said Xing Zhaopeng, ANZ's senior China strategist.

China's exports of automated data processing equipment soared 66.1% in ‌value ⁠terms year-on-year, high-tech ⁠products rose 50.9% and shipments of cars jumped 39%, the data showed.

"Looking ahead, the AI story is far from over -- chips are rewriting China's trade landscape," Xing added.

The AI boom has driven strong demand for semiconductors powering data centers and advanced electronics, playing to China's manufacturing strengths.

But beyond AI, there are signs of strain in other sectors that suggest momentum may be starting to fade. Furniture exports, for example, rose just 1.9% year-on-year in May, while toy shipments fell 7% and footwear exports dropped 10.4%.

Separate factory activity data also showed a steep drop in new export orders last month from April's two-year peak, when warehouse managers reported "booming" business amid a scramble by foreign factories to lock in supplies.

Strong exports powered ⁠China's $20 trillion economy past forecasts in the first quarter, but pockets of weakness in the export ‌engine have reinforced concerns that fragile domestic demand leaves it exposed to weaker global ‌conditions and increases the likelihood of further policy support.

CHINA'S EXCESS CAPACITY STOKES TRADE FRICTION

Beijing is under growing international pressure to strengthen domestic consumption, as critics ‌warn its heavy reliance on imported inputs and re-exports is distorting trade and squeezing other emerging economies out of higher-value manufacturing.

"Close attention ‌must be paid to the risk of escalation between China and major trading partners such as Europe," said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development amplified that concern last week, noting in a report that nearly 60% of Chinese firms' "market share gains can be explained by subsidies received."

A new US Federal Reserve paper found that China's trade surplus - measured against global GDP - has topped 1%, well above the peaks ‌Japan and Germany hit in the late 20th century, and shows little sign of narrowing.

China's trade surplus, which topped $1 trillion last year, came in at $105.43 billion in May, up from $84.8 billion ⁠a month prior and from a ⁠forecast of $92.1 billion.

The latest trade figures suggest Chinese industrial overcapacity probably accounts for at least some of the shipments.

Exports to Europe rose 7.6% year-on-year in May, while those to the United States climbed 35.4% and to Southeast Asia increased 24.3%.

Purchases from South Korea surged 83.6%. China is Korea's biggest chips market.

RARE EARTHS FLASHPOINT

China's economic heft is also rippling through oil markets, with the world's top energy buyer surprising traders by holding back purchases. Crude imports in May plunged 29% to their lowest level in eight years, helping temper global prices and partially cushion the energy shock triggered by US President Donald Trump's war in Iran.

A closely watched meeting last month between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping helped cool tensions between the two superpowers but produced no meaningful breakthroughs, whether on tariff disputes or cooperation over ending the Iran conflict.

That said, China's rare earth exports climbed to a four-month high, with the world's top producer shipping 5,490 metric tons of the 17-element group essential for electric vehicles, wind turbines and defense technologies - another flashpoint in Beijing's trade tensions with the West.

China's relative advantages in scale, deep supply chains and industrial capacity leave it well positioned to absorb trade frictions with the West, including proposed US tariff hikes, said Sheana Yue, senior economist at Oxford Economics.

"We still expect exports to be China's primary growth driver in 2026, anchored by continued high-tech and clean-tech products despite war-related headwinds to global demand."

Business

Türkiye, Canada Agree to Launch Exploratory Talks on Free Trade

Türkiye’s Trade Minister Omer Bolat addresses the audience during a signing ceremony in Istanbul, Türkiye, April 29, 2024. (Reuters)
Türkiye’s Trade Minister Omer Bolat addresses the audience during a signing ceremony in Istanbul, Türkiye, April 29, 2024. (Reuters)
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Türkiye, Canada Agree to Launch Exploratory Talks on Free Trade

Türkiye’s Trade Minister Omer Bolat addresses the audience during a signing ceremony in Istanbul, Türkiye, April 29, 2024. (Reuters)
Türkiye’s Trade Minister Omer Bolat addresses the audience during a signing ceremony in Istanbul, Türkiye, April 29, 2024. (Reuters)

The trade ministers of Türkiye and Canada have agreed to launch exploratory discussions aimed at concluding a free trade agreement, according to a joint ministerial statement on Tuesday.

The statement said ‌Turkish Trade ‌Minister Omer ‌Bolat ⁠and Canada's Minister of ⁠International Trade Maninder Sidhu had met to advance the strong and growing economic partnership between the two countries.

"They ⁠agreed to launch ‌exploratory ‌discussions toward a free trade agreement, ‌a step that ‌reflects the ambition of both countries to unlock the full potential of the ‌commercial partnership," the statement said.

It said they identified ⁠energy ⁠as a promising area for expanded cooperation and agreed to explore opportunities in renewable energy, as well as in nuclear energy, including the potential of Canadian CANDU technology to support Türkiye’s diversification goals.

Business

Saudi Arabia, Russia Ink $1.28 Billion Deals to Boost Key Industries

General view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (SPA)
General view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (SPA)
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Saudi Arabia, Russia Ink $1.28 Billion Deals to Boost Key Industries

General view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (SPA)
General view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (SPA)

Saudi Arabia and Russia signed 13 strategic agreements and memoranda of understanding on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), the Saudi Press Agency reported on Monday.

The agreements were signed in the presence of Saudi Vice Minister of Environment, Water and Agriculture Eng. Mansour Al-Mushaiti, reflecting the two countries’ commitment to strengthening cooperation across key economic and strategic sectors.

The agreements, valued at $1.28 billion (SAR4.8 billion), aim to expand cooperation and strengthen trade and investment exchange between the two countries.

Al-Mushaiti said the Ministry of Environment, Water and Agriculture has worked to attract leading Russian companies specializing in vital and food-related sectors. He noted that the forum witnessed the signing of a package of high-quality agreements and partnerships between government entities and major private-sector companies from both countries.

The agreements support the Kingdom’s efforts to enhance food security, localize advanced biotechnology, and strengthen supply chain sustainability in line with the objectives of Saudi Vision 2030.

He explained that the agreements and memoranda of understanding signed during the Kingdom’s participation as a guest of honor at the forum covered several strategic sectors, including the manufacturing and localization of veterinary vaccine production to support animal health and biosecurity; the development and propagation of broiler breeds to enhance self-sufficiency and the sustainability of domestic production; securing feed inputs and supply chains to support the stability and growth of the livestock sector.

The agreements also focused on expanding exports of Saudi fish products through strategic partnerships for shrimp and fish exports, in cooperation with Russian companies specializing in import and international distribution.

Al-Mushaiti added that the forum also witnessed the signing of agreements to market and export camel milk and its derivatives to Russian and international markets, promote and export Saudi coffee products, and enhance cooperation and exchange in the soft drinks sector.

He stressed that the Kingdom’s participation in SPIEF reflects the importance of the strategic partnership between Saudi Arabia and Russia and provides an opportunity to exchange expertise and explore investment opportunities in the environment, water, and agriculture sectors.