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Yemen’s Fragile Economy Feels the Heat of Iran-Israel Conflict

Fears mount over the impact of military escalation on the Yemeni currency, which has recently seen a rapid decline (AFP). 
Fears mount over the impact of military escalation on the Yemeni currency, which has recently seen a rapid decline (AFP). 
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Yemen’s Fragile Economy Feels the Heat of Iran-Israel Conflict

Fears mount over the impact of military escalation on the Yemeni currency, which has recently seen a rapid decline (AFP). 
Fears mount over the impact of military escalation on the Yemeni currency, which has recently seen a rapid decline (AFP). 

The ripple effects of the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel are being felt in Yemen’s fragile economy. The already-depreciated Yemeni rial has fallen further, fuel prices have surged following a government decision, and fears of wider inflation loom over one of the region’s most vulnerable economies.

Last week, the exchange rate for the US dollar crossed 2,750 Yemeni rials before slightly retreating. Economists warn the rial will likely continue to weaken amid broader regional instability. In response, Prime Minister Salem bin Braik announced an emergency 100-day plan to stabilize the economy and ensure basic state obligations, including public sector salaries.

The government also introduced new fuel pricing, raising costs by up to $1 per 20-liter container of gasoline and diesel. This marks the fourth fuel price hike this year, compounding pressure on Yemen’s already burdened consumers.

With Yemen importing over 95% of its goods, any increase in global shipping costs or insurance premiums immediately impacts domestic prices.

Economist Rashid Al-Ansi explained to Asharq Al-Awsat that the cost of food, fuel, and other essential goods is rising due to the weakened currency and regional tensions. Unlike neighboring countries, he added, Yemen lacks the fiscal space and policy flexibility to absorb such shocks.

Adding to the strain, foreign currency reserves are being depleted as locals rush to convert their savings into dollars or gold amid fears of an open war between Israel and Iran. This has raised concerns of further rial depreciation and capital flight, according to economist Fares Al-Najjar.

Al-Najjar also warned that remittance flows - Yemen’s main source of foreign currency - may decline due to global uncertainty, reducing the central bank’s ability to stabilize the market. The government is already struggling to fund basic services, including electricity in Aden and water supply in Taiz.

Experts are particularly concerned about potential disruption to maritime trade. If military tensions spill over into the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden, Yemen’s surrounding waters could be labeled “high-risk zones,” driving shipping and insurance costs up by as much as 300%. This would cripple import flows and make oil exports - Yemen’s last lifeline for foreign currency - nearly impossible.

 

 

 

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Business

European Gas Prices Jump 35% after Strikes on Energy Infrastructure

Notes read “Out of Stock” at the New World Fuel station in Levin, New Zealand, on March 19, 2026. (Photo by Marty MELVILLE / AFP)
Notes read “Out of Stock” at the New World Fuel station in Levin, New Zealand, on March 19, 2026. (Photo by Marty MELVILLE / AFP)
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European Gas Prices Jump 35% after Strikes on Energy Infrastructure

Notes read “Out of Stock” at the New World Fuel station in Levin, New Zealand, on March 19, 2026. (Photo by Marty MELVILLE / AFP)
Notes read “Out of Stock” at the New World Fuel station in Levin, New Zealand, on March 19, 2026. (Photo by Marty MELVILLE / AFP)

European gas prices soared as much as 35 percent on Thursday as fresh strikes hit energy infrastructure in the Middle East.

The Dutch TTF natural gas contract, considered the European benchmark, jumped to 74 euros, before paring gains slightly.

Two waves of Iranian strikes caused "extensive damage" at Ras Laffan in Qatar, the world's largest liquefied natural gas hub, raising fresh concerns over energy supplies.

Oil and gas prices have jumped since the US-Israeli attacks on Iran began.

Business

EU Pitched for Türkiye to Join Its Payments System, Envoy Says

This photograph shows European flags fluttering outside the EU Commission headquarters in Brussels on March 18, 2026. (AFP)
This photograph shows European flags fluttering outside the EU Commission headquarters in Brussels on March 18, 2026. (AFP)
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EU Pitched for Türkiye to Join Its Payments System, Envoy Says

This photograph shows European flags fluttering outside the EU Commission headquarters in Brussels on March 18, 2026. (AFP)
This photograph shows European flags fluttering outside the EU Commission headquarters in Brussels on March 18, 2026. (AFP)

The European Union pitched to Türkiye last month the idea that the candidate for bloc membership could join a cost-cutting payments system to boost integration efforts and benefit those sending money abroad, the EU envoy to Ankara told Reuters.

Jurgis Vilcinskas, the bloc's chargé d’affaires in Türkiye, said European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos discussed the proposal with Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, when the two met last month in Ankara.

The EU says its 41-country Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA) makes cross-border ‌euro-currency payments cheaper, ‌faster and more secure. Users in far smaller ‌Balkan ⁠candidates Albania, Moldova, Montenegro ⁠and North Macedonia, which adopted the scheme last year, could save up to 500 million euros, it said.

"SEPA could present a valuable opportunity to strengthen Türkiye's economic integration as a candidate country and a key trade and economic partner of the EU," Vilcinskas told Reuters in a response.

It could generate "significant savings annually for Turkish businesses, ⁠consumers and diaspora by making cross-border transfers in Euros ‌as fast and as cheap as ‌domestic ones," he said.

Ankara's view on the matter is unclear.

A Turkish diplomatic source ‌confirmed that during Kos' February 6 visit an offer had been conveyed ‌to Ankara, adding the SEPA issue was under the jurisdiction and coordination of the Finance Ministry, which did not comment on the matter.

STEPS EYED TO BOLSTER ECONOMIC TIES

Under SEPA, Turkish banks could stand to lose revenues on transfers, which ‌vary widely based on size. A Türkiye-Europe transfer of 1,000 euros to 5000 euros can cost 40 euros, according ⁠to Western ⁠Union.

Europe is Türkiye’s largest trading partner with more than 200 billion euros in volume. With bloc membership talks effectively stalled for years, both say they want to modernize their customs union and move to boost economic ties.

Vilcinskas said Türkiye would need to comply with the EU's Payment Services Directive, including strengthening its anti-money laundering and data protection rules, adding that the Commission was ready to support Türkiye in any SEPA endeavor.

SEPA could bring "significant" savings, especially for the large Turkish diaspora across Europe, a Turkish banking source said.

In an interview this month, Odile Renaud-Basso, president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, said SEPA would "basically make transactions cost-free".

Business

Crude Prices Surge, Stocks Sink as Iran Warns of Regional Energy Strikes

A pumpjack stands at the Inglewood Oil field in Los Angeles, California on March 17, 2026. (Photo by Patrick T. Fallon / AFP)
A pumpjack stands at the Inglewood Oil field in Los Angeles, California on March 17, 2026. (Photo by Patrick T. Fallon / AFP)
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Crude Prices Surge, Stocks Sink as Iran Warns of Regional Energy Strikes

A pumpjack stands at the Inglewood Oil field in Los Angeles, California on March 17, 2026. (Photo by Patrick T. Fallon / AFP)
A pumpjack stands at the Inglewood Oil field in Los Angeles, California on March 17, 2026. (Photo by Patrick T. Fallon / AFP)

Oil surged more than five percent Thursday and stocks sank as Iran carried out a series of attacks on Gulf energy facilities and warned of more following a strike on one of its key gas fields, while warnings of higher US inflation also soured the mood.

After spending much of Wednesday hovering around $100, crude soared as Tehran threatened to target regional installations in reply to what it said was an Israeli hit on a site serving its massive South Pars field, which it shares with Qatar.

Abu Dhabi later shut down operations at a gas facility due to falling debris from missile interceptions, while Qatar's Ras Laffan site was hit, with QatarEnergy saying emergency teams had been "deployed immediately to contain the resulting fires".

Iranian state television later said Thursday that a missile struck the site again, which QatarEnergy said caused extensive damage.

Qatar has ordered several Iranian diplomats to leave the country.

Meanwhile, the UN nuclear watchdog said Iranian authorities had reported a projectile impact at the country's only operational nuclear power plant but that it caused no damage.

"We warn you once again that you made a big mistake in attacking the energy infrastructure of the Islamic republic," the Revolutionary Guards said in a statement carried by Iranian media.

"If it is repeated again, further attacks on your energy infrastructure and that of your allies will not stop until it is completely destroyed."

And President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on X that the attacks on South Pars "will complicate the situation and could have uncontrollable consequences, the scope of which could engulf the entire world".

Brent spiked more than five percent to hit a peak of $112.86, while West Texas Intermediate was sitting around $99.

The increased tension hit equities, which had enjoyed a broadly positive start to the week thanks to a fresh rally in tech firms.

Tokyo and Seoul, which had been the best performers between the start of the year and the start of the war, both sank more than two percent.

Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore, Taipei, Wellington and Jakarta were also well down.

After talks with US President Donald Trump and Qatar's emir, French President Emmanuel Macron said on X: "It is in the common interest to implement without delay a moratorium on strikes targeting civilian infrastructure, particularly energy and water infrastructure."

Markets have been hammered since the US-Israel attacks on Iran on February 28 that sparked a wave of retaliatory strikes across the Gulf by Tehran. The Iranian republic also effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil and gas flows.

That has sent crude soaring, stoking fears of another surge in inflation.

And while the White House unveiled new steps Wednesday to try to counter the spike in energy costs prices, waiving a century-old shipping law and easing Venezuela sanctions, observers said the measures were nowhere near enough.

The attacks shook up energy markets, which had seen a period of stability this week helped by Iraq saying it had resumed limited oil exports through Türkiye to avoid the Strait of Hormuz.

The strategic waterway usually sees a fifth of global oil pass through it but Iran has effectively shut it since the outbreak of the war, with attacks on ships.

Expectations that the spike in energy costs would send inflation soaring again has seen traders pare their expectations for central bank interest rate cuts this year.

Those concerns were compounded Wednesday with data showing US wholesale inflation rose more than expected in February.

Later, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he expected higher energy prices to boost inflation in the near term but added that little was clear at this point.

"We're right at the beginning of this, and we don't know how big -- you just don't know how big this will be and how long it lasts," he said after the bank held interest rates. Officials would have to "wait and see", he said.

Eyes are also on decisions Thursday by the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan.

Australia's central bank hiked its key rate Tuesday, pointing to "sharply higher fuel prices".