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Oil Prices Edge Down on US Inventory Build, OPEC Forecast Shift

FILE PHOTO: A general view of the Centenario deep-water oil platform in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico January 17, 2014. Picture taken January 17, 2014. REUTERS/Henry Romero/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A general view of the Centenario deep-water oil platform in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico January 17, 2014. Picture taken January 17, 2014. REUTERS/Henry Romero/File Photo
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Oil Prices Edge Down on US Inventory Build, OPEC Forecast Shift

FILE PHOTO: A general view of the Centenario deep-water oil platform in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico January 17, 2014. Picture taken January 17, 2014. REUTERS/Henry Romero/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A general view of the Centenario deep-water oil platform in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico January 17, 2014. Picture taken January 17, 2014. REUTERS/Henry Romero/File Photo

Oil prices edged lower on Thursday, extending losses from the previous session, after a report showing rising crude inventories in the US reinforced concerns that the global supply is more than sufficient to meet current fuel demand.

Brent crude futures fell 9 cents, or 0.1%, to $62.62 a barrel at 0336 GMT, after dropping 3.8% a day earlier. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 11 cents, or 0.2%, to $58.38 a barrel, extending a 4.2% decline on Wednesday.

Market sources, citing American Petroleum Institute figures, on Wednesday said US crude stockpiles rose by 1.3 million barrels in the week that ended November 7. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles dropped, the sources said, citing the API data.

Prices fell more than $2 a barrel on Wednesday after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said global oil supplies will slightly exceed demand in 2026, marking a further shift from the group's earlier projections of a deficit.

"Recent (price) weakness seems to be driven by OPEC’s revision of supply-demand balance in 2026 in its monthly report, which confirms the group is now acknowledging the possibility of a supply glut in 2026, in contrast to its more bullish stance all along," said Suvro Sarkar, DBS Bank's energy sector team lead.

"This falls in place with the recent decision to pause the unwinding of voluntary production cuts in 1Q. Given that this is just a shift to a more realistic reading of the market, it doesn’t change fundamentals, hence the market reaction seems overdone."

OPEC said it expected the supply surplus next year because of the wider production increases by OPEC+, a group of producers that includes OPEC members and allies like Russia.

"OPEC's signal of a supply surplus unleashed previously pent-up bearish sentiment in the previous session, while a US crude inventory build added pressure, pushing oil prices to continue to slide on Thursday morning," said Yang An, an analyst at Haitong Securities.

The US Energy Information Administration is expected to release inventory data later on Thursday. Other reports on Wednesday added to the bearish investor sentiment.

The EIA also said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook that US oil production is expected to set a larger record this year than previously forecast.

Global oil inventories will grow through 2026 as production increases faster than demand for petroleum fuels, adding to pressure on oil prices, the EIA added.

Looking ahead, some analysts expected prices to remain close to present levels.

"There should be considerable support to oil prices around $60/bbl, especially given there could be short-term disruption to Russian export flows once stricter sanctions kick in," DBS' Sarkar said.

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Dollar Rides Haven Demand as Middle East Talks Ring Hollow

An electronic panel displays US Dollar currency symbol at an exchange office in Podolsk, outside Moscow, Russia, 26 March 2026. (EPA)
An electronic panel displays US Dollar currency symbol at an exchange office in Podolsk, outside Moscow, Russia, 26 March 2026. (EPA)
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Dollar Rides Haven Demand as Middle East Talks Ring Hollow

An electronic panel displays US Dollar currency symbol at an exchange office in Podolsk, outside Moscow, Russia, 26 March 2026. (EPA)
An electronic panel displays US Dollar currency symbol at an exchange office in Podolsk, outside Moscow, Russia, 26 March 2026. (EPA)

The dollar hovered near multi-month peaks on Friday as investors sought safety in the shadow of an intensifying Middle East war and mounting doubts over any path to de-escalation.

Markets were on edge following another rollercoaster week as US President Donald Trump again extended a deadline for striking Iran's energy facilities into April, even as Washington and Tehran offered starkly conflicting accounts of diplomatic progress.

The Pentagon is also looking at sending up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, doing little to bolster investor hopes ‌of an imminent ‌end to the war.

That kept the dollar bid ‌as ⁠investors flocked to ⁠the safe-haven currency and ramped up expectations of a US rate hike by the year-end, owing to the inflationary pulse from higher-for-longer energy prices.

The yen, on the other hand, was left on the cusp of 160 per dollar and stood at 159.58. The euro was nursing losses and tacked on 0.1% to $1.1540, while sterling was little changed at $1.3339.

"It doesn't look like the conflict will end anytime soon," said Carol Kong, a ⁠currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "The dollar is king while ‌this conflict lasts."

"If we're right about this ‌conflict being protracted, I think oil prices will just keep rising and it will ‌push the dollar higher, at the expense of net energy importers like the Japanese ‌yen and the euro," she added.

The darkening market mood sent the risk-sensitive Australian dollar down to a two-month trough, though it later rebounded and traded 0.2% higher at $0.6903. The New Zealand dollar languished near its lowest level since January and last stood at $0.5769.

Against a basket ‌of currencies, the dollar was marginally weaker at 99.83, but still on track for a 2.2% rise this month, which would ⁠mark its ⁠biggest gain since July last year.

Investors are now pricing in an over 40% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike from the Federal Reserve by September, according to CME Fedwatch tool, in a sharp reversal from more than 50 bps worth of easing expected before the war.

The Bank of England and the European Central Bank are also seen tightening policy, with the hawkish sea change in rate expectations hammering bonds and sending yields rising.

"A more prolonged disruption to energy supplies would deliver a larger hit to activity that would meet most definitions of a global recession and prompt a broader monetary tightening cycle," said analysts at Capital Economics in a note.

Yields on US Treasuries edged slightly higher on Friday, following a sharp rise overnight, with the two-year yield at 3.9899%. The benchmark 10-year yield was up about 1 bp to 4.4278%.

Business

Oil Drops as Trump Pauses Iran Strikes, but Stock Traders Nervous

Donald trump said he had pushed back the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz once again following a request from Tehran. IRIB TV/AFP
Donald trump said he had pushed back the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz once again following a request from Tehran. IRIB TV/AFP
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Oil Drops as Trump Pauses Iran Strikes, but Stock Traders Nervous

Donald trump said he had pushed back the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz once again following a request from Tehran. IRIB TV/AFP
Donald trump said he had pushed back the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz once again following a request from Tehran. IRIB TV/AFP

Oil prices fell Friday after Donald Trump again pushed back a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though most equities also dropped as traders shrugged at the news following a series of conflicting messaging from the White House.

The US president had warned last Saturday he would obliterate Iran’s energy sites if it did not unblock the crucial waterway within 48 hours but pushed that back five days citing positive peace talks, which Tehran denied had taken place.

But after days of strikes by both sides and mixed reports of negotiations -- including the trading of multi-point demands -- he announced Thursday that he would again delay the attacks to April 6 after a request from Tehran.

"Talks are ongoing and, despite erroneous statements to the contrary by the Fake News Media, and others, they are going very well," Trump posted on his Truth Social platform.

"As per Iranian Government request... I am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 Days to Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 P.M., Eastern Time," he posted.

Trump had earlier denied he was desperate for a deal to end the war, despite the Iranian republic's cool response to an American peace plan and fears the spike in oil prices would fan inflation, said AFP.

Trump later told a cabinet meeting Iran had allowed 10 oil tankers passage through the Strait of Hormuz -- through which about a fifth of world oil and gas pass -- to show it was serious about talks.

The Iranian news agency Tasnim said the country's response to Washington's 15-point plan to end the war "was officially sent last night through intermediaries, and Iran is awaiting the other side's response".

The report, citing an unnamed official, said officials had called for an end to US-Israeli attacks on Iran and Tehran-backed groups elsewhere in the region.

It also called for war reparations and Iran's "sovereignty" over the Strait of Hormuz be respected.

However, Trump's announcement came as the Wall Street Journal cited Department of Defense officials as saying the Pentagon was considering sending as many as 10,000 extra ground troops to the Middle East.

Oil prices fell more than one percent Friday, though that only partially pared the previous day's surge amid growing anxiety that the conflict will last far longer than first thought.

Brent is up almost 50 percent since the war began on February 28, while West Texas Intermediate has risen around 40 percent.

Equities struggled following hefty losses in Wall Street.

Tokyo and Seoul, which had been the standout performers in the first two months of the year, were among the biggest losers, while Hong Kong, Sydney, Wellington, Taipei Jakarta and Manila were also sharply lower.

Shanghai and Singapore fluctuated.

Investors are also increasingly skeptical about the messaging from the White House, with Trump often flipping between threats and talk of peace.

"A ten-day extension sounds like breathing room, but in market terms, it feels more like a trader rolling a losing position forward, hoping the next candle delivers what the last one refused to give," said SPI Asset Management's Stephen Innes referring to an investors analysis tool.

"Time has been purchased, not clarity. And the market knows the difference."

And National Australia Bank's Ray Attrill said: "Whether peace talks are taking place between the US and Iran remains debatable, Iran insisting that exchanges of letters via a friendly intermediary (presumed to be Pakistan) does not constitute talks."

Meanwhile, the World Trade Organization warned the global trading system was experiencing the "worst disruptions in the past 80 years", while the World Bank said it was prepared to provide immediate financial assistance to emerging market countries.

That came as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warned US inflation could hit more than four percent this year as a result of the spike in crude prices. That compares with its previous projection of 2.8 percent.

The prospect of another spike in the cost of living led several Federal Reserve officials to express concern about the outlook for the world's top economy and suggested interest rates were unlikely to come down any time soon.

With the economic impact worsening, governments around the world are being forced to act.

Spain approved a sweeping $5.8 billion package including steep cuts to energy taxes, while Poland's prime minister announced a series of measures to address soaring fuel costs, including reduced taxes and price ceilings.

And South Korea said it will roll out a $17 billion "wartime" supplementary budget and expand fuel tax cuts.

Business

Cryptocurrencies Aiding Iran during War

Iranian civilians are turning en masse to bitcoin, which can be stored in personal wallets beyond the authorities' reach. SEBASTIEN BOZON / AFP/File
Iranian civilians are turning en masse to bitcoin, which can be stored in personal wallets beyond the authorities' reach. SEBASTIEN BOZON / AFP/File
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Cryptocurrencies Aiding Iran during War

Iranian civilians are turning en masse to bitcoin, which can be stored in personal wallets beyond the authorities' reach. SEBASTIEN BOZON / AFP/File
Iranian civilians are turning en masse to bitcoin, which can be stored in personal wallets beyond the authorities' reach. SEBASTIEN BOZON / AFP/File

Since the start of the Middle East conflict, Iran has witnessed massive cryptocurrency flows.

Experts say they are being used to circumvent sanctions placed on Iran's Revolutionary Guards as well as a financial safe haven by civilians hit by soaring inflation.

AFP examines how exactly digital currencies are being used in the country.

- Millions of dollars -

In an unusually large movement, more than $10 million worth of cryptocurrencies left Iranian exchange platforms between February 28 -- the first day of Israeli-US airstrikes -- and March 2, according to data analytics firm Chainalysis.

By March 5, nearly one-third of these funds had been transferred to foreign exchanges.

While some of this exodus can be explained by citizens rushing to protect their savings, the sheer size of the sums involved suggests the involvement of "regime actors", Kaitlin Martin of Chainalysis told AFP.

Such action would likely occur out of fear of further sanctions or cyberattacks, according to experts.

In June 2025, at the height of the previous Israel-Iran conflict, leading cryptocurrency platform Nobitex had $90 million stolen by hackers linked to Israel, according to blockchain company TRM Labs.

- Iran implicated -

According to Chainalysis, several digital wallets used during this surge in cryptocurrency activity are directly linked to the Revolutionary Guards.

"Even during these internet outages some outflows are seen, suggesting that some have access to the exchange's cryptoasset holdings even when its website is inaccessible," noted cryptocurrency analysts Elliptic.

The state's grip is massive. Last year, wallets associated with the Guards were funded with more than $3 billion in cryptocurrencies, representing more than half of the country's cryptocurrency flows -- a share that continues to grow according to Chainalysis.

- 'Shadow banking' -

For Iran, largely cut off from the traditional financial system by international sanctions, cryptocurrencies are an alternative channel -- allowing the state to sell embargoed oil or to discreetly finance allied armed groups, such as the Houthis in Yemen according to US authorities.

The Financial Times earlier this year reported that Iran offered ballistic missiles, drones and other advanced weapons systems for sale using cryptocurrencies.

These digital assets contribute to a veritable "shadow banking", Craig Timm of the anti-money laundering organization ACAMS, told AFP.

Quicker to send and less expensive than a bank transfer, cryptocurrencies are difficult to trace owing also to loopholes in global regulations, he added.

- 'Lifeline' -

The Revolutionary Guards and Iranian central bank favor "stablecoins" -- digital currencies generally pegged to the dollar in a bid to avoid volatility.

But civilians are turning en masse to bitcoin, the world's leading cryptocurrency, which can be withdrawn from platforms and stored in personal wallets, beyond the authorities' reach.

Bitcoin currently trades for more than $68,000.

This strategy was already widely evident during brutally suppressed protests in Iran ahead of the war, according to Chainalysis.

In a country where inflation was already nearing 50 percent before the conflict started, cryptocurrencies are acting as a "lifeline" for the population in the face of the collapse of the national currency, said analyst Martin.