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UK Economic Gloom Deepens Before Budget

(FILES) Shoppers walk along Regent Street in London on August 15, 2025. (Photo by HENRY NICHOLLS / AFP)
(FILES) Shoppers walk along Regent Street in London on August 15, 2025. (Photo by HENRY NICHOLLS / AFP)
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UK Economic Gloom Deepens Before Budget

(FILES) Shoppers walk along Regent Street in London on August 15, 2025. (Photo by HENRY NICHOLLS / AFP)
(FILES) Shoppers walk along Regent Street in London on August 15, 2025. (Photo by HENRY NICHOLLS / AFP)

Britain's economy slowed in the third quarter, official data showed Thursday, dealing another blow to the Labour government ahead of its annual budget.

Gross domestic product grew 0.1 percent in the July-September period, down on 0.3-percent growth in the second quarter, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said in a statement.

Analysts' consensus forecast had been for growth of 0.2 percent in the third quarter, AFP reported.

The growth figure comes after official data this week showed UK unemployment rising more than expected to 5.0 percent in the third quarter, ahead of the November 26 budget.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour party has struggled to consistently grow the economy since returning to power in July last year following 14 years of Conservative party rule.

Many analysts blame the weak growth on a decision by finance minister Rachel Reeves to increase a tax on businesses in her first budget last year.

She has indicated that taxes could rise on some salaries in the upcoming budget to help drive down government debt and to fund public services.

"There's more to do to build an economy that works for working people," Reeves said in response to Thursday's figures.

"At my budget later this month, I will take the fair decisions to build a strong economy," she added.

In September alone, the economy contracted 0.1 percent after a cyberattack on carmaker Jaguar Land Rover hit the manufacturing sector, the ONS data showed.

"Growth slowed further in the third quarter of the year with both services and construction weaker than in the previous period," said ONS director of economic statistics Liz McKeown.

"There was a particularly marked fall in car production in September, reflecting the impact of a cyber incident, as well as a decline in the often-erratic pharmaceutical industry," she added.

The latest quarterly figure was well below the 0.7-percent growth recorded in the first three months of the year.

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Business

Dollar Falls for Second Day as Middle East Ceasefire Expectations Rise

US dollar bills (Reuters)
US dollar bills (Reuters)
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Dollar Falls for Second Day as Middle East Ceasefire Expectations Rise

US dollar bills (Reuters)
US dollar bills (Reuters)

The dollar dropped for a second day on Wednesday as expectations of a ceasefire in the Middle East conflict grew after the US signalled that an end to the war could be near, even though markets remained on edge on fears of escalation.

The White House said US President Donald Trump would address the nation "to provide an important update on Iran" at 9 p.m. EDT on Wednesday (0100 GMT on Thursday).

Trump said on Tuesday the US could end its military campaign against Iran within two to three weeks, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News Washington could see the "finish line" in the Iran war, according to Reuters.

Expectations that a ceasefire could be near have reversed some of the most popular trades since the war began in late February.

The yen recovered from this year's low of 160.46 per dollar, moving back through the psychologically important 160 level that had fanned concerns about intervention by Japanese authorities. The euro hit its highest level in a week.

The dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was last down 0.3% at 99.456, slipping to a one-week low after a 0.65% fall on Tuesday.

"Markets are increasingly buying into the notion of de-escalation in the Middle East overall," said Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen, FX analyst at Danske Bank.

"Markets are optimistic. We're seeing some relief with rates going lower, equities going higher and the price action in euro-dollar reflects that quite well."

The euro edged up 0.5% versus the dollar to $1.1603, after rising 0.8% on Tuesday.

The Japanese yen was up 0.1% at 158.46 per dollar. Sterling strengthened 0.7% to $1.3313.

At the same time, there were still signs of escalation in the conflict.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the next few days in the war against Iran would be decisive and warned Tehran that the conflict would intensify if it did not make a deal.

The dollar should remain supported by the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts, while the yen is being underpinned by rising expectations of a Bank of Japan hike in April, said Sho Suzuki, market analyst at Matsui Securities.

"We may see a tug-of-war between dollar strength and yen strength, with USD/JPY trading sideways in the upper 150s," he said.

The Australian dollar strengthened 0.7% to $0.6946. New Zealand's kiwi strengthened 0.4% to $0.5770.

Business

Oil Slides as Middle East Uncertainty Keeps Markets on Edge

Concerns are growing in Europe about an economic recession as oil prices rise (Reuters)
Concerns are growing in Europe about an economic recession as oil prices rise (Reuters)
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Oil Slides as Middle East Uncertainty Keeps Markets on Edge

Concerns are growing in Europe about an economic recession as oil prices rise (Reuters)
Concerns are growing in Europe about an economic recession as oil prices rise (Reuters)

Oil reversed earlier gains on Wednesday as uncertainty over the situation in the Middle East unnerved markets and US President Donald Trump again suggested the US-Israeli war with Iran could be nearing an end.

The front-month Brent contract for June fell $1.06, or 1%, to $102.91 per barrel at 1106 GMT, having dropped to a session low of $98.35. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures for May slipped $1.44, or 1.4%, to $99.94 per barrel, after falling to $96.50 earlier.

Prices rose earlier on Wednesday but then uncertainty over the Middle East conflict prompted investors to lock in gains.

"Oil prices fell after US President Trump signalled a potential end to the war with Iran," ING said in a report.

Oil supply disruptions from the Middle East will increase in April and will hit Europe as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz hits exports further, International Energy Agency head Fatih Birol said on Wednesday.

Brent futures for June delivery settled down more than $3 on Tuesday following unconfirmed media reports that Iran's president was ready to end the war.

Trump told reporters on Tuesday that the US could end the military campaign within two to three weeks and that Iran does not have to make a deal to end the conflict, his clearest declaration yet that he wants to wind down the month-long war.

Still, analysts expect that energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz would be slow to return to levels before the conflict even if a ceasefire were announced.

"Even if the Strait reopens, clearing the vessel backlog would take time, with production, exports and LNG flows normalising only gradually rather than immediately," ING said.

According to a Wall Street Journal report, Trump has indicated he could end the war before reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the route through which 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade flows.

"Even with diplomatic channels reportedly still active and intermittent comments from the US administration predicting a short end to the conflict, the combination of limited tangible diplomatic progress, continued maritime attacks and explicit threats against energy assets keeps supply risks skewed to the upside," LSEG analysts said in a note.

Illustrating the impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries dropped by 7.5 million barrels per day in March compared with the previous month, as producers were forced to cut output because storage is full.

US crude oil output also fell, dropping by the most in two years in January after a severe winter storm knocked production offline, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Tuesday.

Business

Eurozone Manufacturing Growth Reaches 4-Year High

Production lines at German car manufacturer Mercedes-Benz at its factory in Rastatt (Reuters)
Production lines at German car manufacturer Mercedes-Benz at its factory in Rastatt (Reuters)
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Eurozone Manufacturing Growth Reaches 4-Year High

Production lines at German car manufacturer Mercedes-Benz at its factory in Rastatt (Reuters)
Production lines at German car manufacturer Mercedes-Benz at its factory in Rastatt (Reuters)

Euro zone manufacturers faced soaring input costs and supply chain disruptions in March due to the Iran war, even as underlying tepid demand threatened to undermine the sector's fragile recovery, a survey showed.

The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted global logistics networks, causing delivery delays and pushing input price inflation to its highest levels since October 2022, distorting headline growth measures.

A jump in the cost of manufacturing, driven by higher oil and energy prices, led manufacturers to respond by raising selling prices at the fastest pace ⁠in just over ⁠three years.

"It's exactly the same as during the pandemic - this is a supply shock - normally longer delivery times are associated with too much demand in a really healthy environment but in a supply shock it falsely elevates the PMI," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global.

"It ⁠does falsely elevate the PMI so conditions would be worse than the headline PMI indicates," he also said.

The S&P Global euro zone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 51.6 in March from 50.8 in February, higher than a preliminary estimate of 51.4.

A reading above 50.0 indicates growth in activity.

The new orders sub-index - a key gauge of demand - matched February's 46-month high but growth remained modest.

Production rose for a third consecutive month, with the output sub-index edging up ⁠to 52.0 ⁠from 51.9 in February, marking a seven-month high.

New export orders stabilized after contracting for eight straight months, providing some relief to manufacturers.

Backlogs of work increased for the first time since mid-2022, signaling capacity pressures, yet companies cut jobs at a faster rate in March.

Business confidence slipped to a five-month low and remained below its long-term average as the conflict weighed on sentiment.

Germany and Italy recorded their strongest readings in 46 and 37 months respectively, while Spain was the only country in contraction territory. Greece posted the highest reading, followed by Ireland, while France's manufacturing sector stagnated.